Cubs play the Reds again after playing them around 2 weeks ago. Let’s take a look at what the Reds have been up to.
CIN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 38 | 43 | -48.0 | 76.0 | 13.9 | 20190701 |
| CIN | 42 | 48 | -47.1 | 70.3 | 12.6 | 20190715 |
They went 4-5 losing 1 game in the last 2 weeks. PITCH down a little and BAT around the same. This is a team going sideways. In past years Reds had great hitting and terrible pitching.
CIN CHN 07_15_8:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | -6 | 0.431 | 0.442 | 103 | -1.00 | 3.00 | -0.66 |
| CHN | 7 | 0.587 | 0.558 | 95 | 1.56 | 1.48 | 0.22 |
Vegas and Tier Combo simulation pretty much in agreement. CIN has a maxed out starter today but Cubs have a better lineup and relief. The L, S, and R columns are tier numbers used in simulation for Lineups, today’s starter, and Relief.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis_Castillo_CIN | 5.80 | 0.746 | 106.0 | 3.00 |
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 2.16 | 0.602 | 95.3 | 1.48 |
Two very good pitchers starting tonight. Castillo is top of MLB and in contention for a Cy Young so far this season. Hendricks chugging along ranked around #100 which is pretty good. He usually percolates to the top second half of season.
WinPct provides context for pitchers and is a mere calculation of WAA and time, time being Innings Pitched or Outs for pitchers as described here. No one is ranked based upon WinPct because it’s a rate.
CIN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +003+ | 5.80 | Luis_Castillo_CIN | 106.0 | |
| +057+ | 2.75 | Sonny_Gray_CIN | 97.3 | |
| +174+ | 1.47 | Tanner_Roark_CIN | 97.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN | 86.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Tyler_Mahle_CIN | 97.0 | |
| Total | 10.38 | 0.597 |
Pretty decent set of starters which is unusual for the Reds.
CIN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +194+ | 1.28 | Jared_Hughes_CIN | 37.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Michael_Lorenzen_CIN | 47.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Robert_Stephenson_CIN | 35.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.61 | Raisel_Iglesias_CIN | 38.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Matt_Bowman_CIN | 18.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Wandy_Peralta_CIN | 24.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.55 | Jimmy_Herget_CIN | 0.7 | |
| -096- | -1.70 | David_Hernandez_CIN | 38.7 | |
| Total | 1.61 | 0.530 |
This relief staff is slightly below league average of 2.45 which is based upon current rosters.
CIN Lineup 7/14/2019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Nick_Senzel_CIN | CF | 245 |
| XXXXX | -0.97 | Jesse_Winker_CIN | LF-CF-RF | 286 |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 375 |
| +142+ | 1.76 | Derek_Dietrich_CIN | 2B-1B-LF | 243 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Phillip_Ervin_CIN | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.55 | Scooter_Gennett_CIN | BAT | 20 |
| XXXXX | -1.20 | Jose_Iglesias_CIN | SS | 298 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Kyle_Farmer_CIN | 2B-1B | 114 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Tyler_Mahle_CIN | none | 0 |
| Total | -0.39 | 0.495 |
This is a -1 tier number lineup from yesterday which is 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current MLB rosters. Joey Votto isn’t in this lineup but if he is, at WAA = -2.41, CIN lineup only gets worse.
Not much more to say about this series. Until then ….