Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs play the Reds again after playing them around 2 weeks ago.  Let’s take a look at what the Reds have been up to.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 38 43 -48.0 76.0 13.9 20190701
CIN 42 48 -47.1 70.3 12.6 20190715

They went 4-5 losing 1 game in the last 2 weeks.  PITCH down a little and BAT around the same.  This is a team going sideways.   In past years Reds had great hitting and terrible pitching.

CIN CHN 07_15_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -6 0.431 0.442 103 -1.00 3.00 -0.66
CHN 7 0.587 0.558 95 1.56 1.48 0.22

Vegas and Tier Combo simulation pretty much in agreement.  CIN has a maxed out starter today but Cubs have a better lineup and relief.  The L, S, and R columns are tier numbers used in simulation for Lineups, today’s starter, and Relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Castillo_CIN 5.80 0.746 106.0 3.00
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.16 0.602 95.3 1.48

Two very good pitchers starting tonight.   Castillo is top of MLB and in contention for a Cy Young so far this season.  Hendricks chugging along ranked around #100 which is pretty good.  He usually percolates to the top second half of season.

WinPct provides context for pitchers and is a mere calculation of WAA and time, time being Innings Pitched or Outs for pitchers as described here.   No one is ranked based upon  WinPct because it’s a rate.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+003+ 5.80 Luis_Castillo_CIN 106.0
+057+ 2.75 Sonny_Gray_CIN 97.3
+174+ 1.47 Tanner_Roark_CIN 97.0
XXXXX 0.78 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 86.7
XXXXX -0.42 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 97.0
Total 10.38 0.597

Pretty decent set of starters which is unusual for the Reds.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+194+ 1.28 Jared_Hughes_CIN 37.0
XXXXX 1.09 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 47.0
XXXXX 0.88 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 35.3
XXXXX 0.61 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 38.7
XXXXX 0.48 Matt_Bowman_CIN 18.0
XXXXX -0.48 Wandy_Peralta_CIN 24.7
XXXXX -0.55 Jimmy_Herget_CIN 0.7
-096- -1.70 David_Hernandez_CIN 38.7
Total 1.61 0.530

This relief staff is slightly below league average of 2.45 which is based upon current rosters.

CIN Lineup 7/14/2019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.17 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 245
XXXXX -0.97 Jesse_Winker_CIN LF-CF-RF 286
XXXXX 0.38 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 375
+142+ 1.76 Derek_Dietrich_CIN 2B-1B-LF 243
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
XXXXX -0.55 Scooter_Gennett_CIN BAT 20
XXXXX -1.20 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 298
XXXXX 0.36 Kyle_Farmer_CIN 2B-1B 114
XXXXX 0.00 Tyler_Mahle_CIN none 0
Total -0.39 0.495

This is a -1 tier number lineup from yesterday which is 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current MLB rosters.  Joey Votto isn’t in this lineup but if he is, at WAA = -2.41,  CIN lineup only gets worse.

Not much more to say about this series.  Until then ….