Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Padres today.  This will be another matchup dump with commentary intermixed.

SDN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SDN 38 37 -25.1 -9.9 2.4 20190621
SDN 46 49 -37.4 -10.0 2.0 20190719

Padres went 8-12 losing 4 games in the last 4 weeks so they’re trending downward once again.  Player values will reflect these losses which are mostly due to poor hitting based upon that BAT number.

SDN CHN 07_19_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SDN -3 0.392 0.451 X -0.45 0.31 -0.96
CHN 8 0.630 0.549 X 0.24 0.98 0.02

Vegas has the Cubs heavily favored for this game.  The L, S, and R categories are not that different so TC Sim has the Cubs less favored.   Cubs are fielding one of their weakest lineups today — partly because the new catcher from KCA is playing.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Eric_Lauer_SDN 1.01 0.550 91.3 0.31
Jon_Lester_CHN 1.70 0.576 101.0 0.98

Lester is a better pitcher but both are above average.

SDN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+024+ 3.82 Chris_Paddack_SDN 90.0
+188+ 1.41 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 101.0
XXXXX 1.01 Eric_Lauer_SDN 91.3
XXXXX 0.34 Cal_Quantrill_SDN 47.0
XXXXX -0.42 Dinelson_Lamet_SDN 10.0
XXXXX -1.22 Logan_Allen_SDN 20.3
Total 4.94 0.562

The above is a very capable starting rotation.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+036+ 3.38 Kirby_Yates_SDN 42.0
XXXXX 0.78 Craig_Stammen_SDN 49.3
XXXXX 0.25 Andres_Munoz_SDN 2.3
XXXXX 0.23 Luis_Perdomo_SDN 38.0
XXXXX 0.19 Trey_Wingenter_SDN 35.7
-085- -1.78 Matt_Strahm_SDN 80.7
-048- -2.33 Gerardo_Reyes_SDN 15.7
Total 0.72 0.512

Relief with a Tier # of -0.96 is almost 1/2 standard deviation below league average according current roster values.  These tables will soon be updated to include tier numbers published in the above game table.  Tier numbers provide a better context to WAA than WinPct.  WinPct is based upon seasonal data, Tier Numbers are based on current roster data.

SDN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+177+ 1.47 Fernando_Tatis_SDN SS 258
XXXXX -0.50 Manuel_Margot_SDN CF 230
+147+ 1.68 Manny_Machado_SDN 3B-SS 395
XXXXX 1.20 Hunter_Renfroe_SDN LF-RF 308
XXXXX 0.19 Franmil_Reyes_SDN RF 318
XXXXX 0.94 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 403
XXXXX -1.22 Francisco_Mejia_SDN CR 120
-043- -2.42 Ian_Kinsler_SDN 2B 266
XXXXX 0.00 Eric_Lauer_SDN none 0
Total 1.34 0.511

This is an above league average lineup based upon seasonal league averages but below based upon current rosters.   Machado and Tatis are ranked according to this data model.  WAR has them ranked #71 and #19 respectively.   Renfroe is ranked #71 so according to WAR their poor hitting is due to the other 5 guys above.  Whatever.  The Padres don’t have a -37.4 BAT derived from seasonal run differential because there are three superstars hitting in their lineup every day.

That’s enough for now.  Playoff Horse Race coming tomorrow and then another Cubs Status since that hasn’t been done in over a month now.   Unlike Draft Kings leagues,  A real baseball season moves at a glacial pace.  Until then ….