Cubs Status 7/21/2019

We haven’t done a Cubs Status since 6/14 or around 5 weeks ago.  Baseball generally moves at a glacial pace however.  Let’s look at this Cubs team.

CHN Team Status

CHN 39 31 28.9 35.5 -1.4 20190616
CHN 54 44 26.5 44.1 0.0 20190721

In the past 5 weeks Cubs went 15-13 gaining 2 games, going from +8 to +10 in the WAA column.  BAT stayed around the same and PITCH improved a little as well as UR which is at 0.0, completely even steven with the league.  BAT, PITCH, and UR are in units of runs.

CHN 5 years

20150721 8 -28.0 49.9 -0.5
20160721 20 55.8 89.1 5.1
20170721 3 -2.2 27.8 -7.1
20180721 17 64.2 37.9 3.2
20190721 10 26.5 44.1 0.0

The above are team status records on 7/21 for the last 5 years.  The year 2017 was the worst but Cubs finished well making it to the NLCS losing to LAN — who are having another stellar season.  Not much more to say about this table other than the last 5 seasons have been great for Cubs fans.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 0.30
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -0.52
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 1.67
SP Jon_Lester_CHN 0.86
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.42
Relief 0.23

Tier numbers are used in simulation and measure the number of 1/2 standard deviations above or below league average based upon current rosters.  All starters on 30 MLB teams get averaged together into a distribution.  Lineups and Relief are groups of players and those too get averaged among the 30 MLB teams.

Cubs lineup takes a hit with the loss of Contreras being replaced with the negative hitting value Maldonado brings.  Earlier in the season their lineup hovered between 1 and 2 and now it’s between 0 and 1.  Today it’s at 0.30.

Relief isn’t as good as in previous years either as they’re just above league average and sometimes dip below.  It could be worse however.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+073+ 2.46 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 101.3
+161+ 1.60 Jon_Lester_CHN 107.0
XXXXX 0.23 Jose_Quintana_CHN 112.0
XXXXX 0.13 Yu_Darvish_CHN 109.0
XXXXX NA Alec_Mills_CHN 6.0
Total 4.42 0.546

Kyle Hendricks followed by Jon Lester currently lead the Cubs rotation.  Hendricks, like Rizzo, slowly rise to the top each season.  Both are listed in the top 25 players for the three year split of 2016, 2017, and 2018 and they’ll probably be ranked higher in next year’s edition.

Starters get evaluated individually with a tier number for the games they start.  The 4.42 Total WAA is used to calculate a team’s Total WAA for all categories for Playoff Horse Race tables.  The 0.546 WinPct is almost exactly their 0.551 WinPct based upon real wins and losses.  That’s just a coincidence however.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+103+ 2.18 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 40.7
+124+ 1.93 Steve_Cishek_CHN 44.3
XXXXX 1.03 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 33.7
XXXXX 0.21 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 46.0
XXXXX -0.06 Pedro_Strop_CHN 25.3
XXXXX -0.13 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 8.7
XXXXX -0.32 Carl_Edwards_CHN 15.0
-134- -1.47 Brad_Brach_CHN 36.0
Total 3.37 Tier# = 0.23

League average for relief is now at 2.90 so Cubs are just a little above average with a Tier number of only 0.23.  This probably isn’t good enough for winning in the  playoffs  but it could be worse.  Strop, Kimbrel and Edwards are all talented and could raise the value of this squad in a month or so to the point they start dancing again.  We’ll just have to wait and see.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+043+ 3.30 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+045+ 3.23 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+090+ 2.27 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.48 Robel_Garcia_CHN BAT
XXXXX 0.34 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.25 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.13 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX -0.17 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -0.73 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.16 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
-129- -1.49 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
-044- -2.54 Martin_Maldonado_CHN CR
Total 3.91 0.522

BAT in team status indicates Cubs are well above average in hitting but this set of players indicates otherwise.  This is a good example of how a seasonal stat can deceive.  Maldonado is very underwater with the BAT although most all that negative value was incurred in Kansas City not the Cubs.   Contreras, ranked #85 with a WAA = 2.33 will almost cancel Madonado out when he returns.

Sometimes it’s good to invest negative hitting value for a good catcher who can improve pitching.  This model merely provides an accurate look into what investment a team is making.

That is all for now.  Cubs start a new series with someone soon so we’ll pick it up when that happens.  Until then ….