Cubs Giants Matchup

Cubs Giants play tonight very late so let’s look at what the Giants have been up to lately.

SFN Team Status

SFN 33 43 -67.5 -9.6 -8.4 20190624
SFN 50 50 -33.4 -1.3 -3.7 20190722

Giants went 17-7 the last 4 weeks gaining 10 games going from -10 WAA to 0 which is even steven for the year.  This is quite a run.   This was mostly due to improved hitting as can be seen above in the BAT column.  PITCH and UR also improved.  Here’s where they stand in the NL West.

NL West 7/22/2019

LAN 67 35 79.6 101.7 -17.7
SFN 50 50 -33.4 -1.3 -3.7
ARI 50 50 37.6 10.8 13.3
SDN 47 52 -36.9 -7.4 0.3
COL 47 52 62.6 -105.2 5.3

Giants tied for second right now although all those bottom four teams will be fighting it out for a Wild Card spot because no way can any of them overcome LAN.  It’s amazing how badly Colorado’s pitching tanked this season.  In the off WordPress site you will be able to drill down and see why but this post is about the Giants.  Let’s look at game records.

CHN SFN 07_22_9:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 0.533 0.549 103 0.36 -0.60 -0.03
SFN 0 0.490 0.451 92 -0.59 -1.29 2.59

Vegas and TC Sim are very much in sync about this game, both favoring the Cubs between 53% and 55%.  Cubs have a better team WAA,  lineup and starter, but worse relief going tonight.  Lineups are based upon last game played because current day lineups for this game will come out very late.  It won’t change handicapping much to make a difference.  Both lines a clear discard.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Alec_Mills_CHN -0.00 NA 6.0 -0.60
Shaun_Anderson_SFN -0.73 0.449 64.7 -1.29

A New Guy Alec Mills starting tonight for Cubs.  He only pitched 6 innings this season so far  which puts him at even steven.  Right now even steven is below league average based upon current rosters so his Tier Number is -0.60.

That doesn’t matter.  Since Mills has too few innings to evaluate this entire game would get kicked no matter what EV in the game records above say.  SFN starter Shaun Anderson is below 1/2 standard deviation below league average based on current league rosters.

SFN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+105+ 2.16 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN 125.7
XXXXX 0.80 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN 110.3
XXXXX 0.08 Conner_Menez_SFN 5.0
XXXXX -0.44 Tyler_Beede_SFN 59.3
XXXXX -0.73 Shaun_Anderson_SFN 64.7
-025- -2.88 Drew_Pomeranz_SFN 72.3
Total -1.01 0.490

They have 6 starters listed on their roster which is unusual.  Drew Pomeranz is having another bad season so he may be out the door soon.  Maybe there are contract issues.  Not sure why they don’t feign injury and stick him on DL.

SFN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+119+ 1.97 Sam_Dyson_SFN 48.0
+124+ 1.91 Reyes_Moronta_SFN 45.3
+136+ 1.81 Will_Smith_SFN 42.3
+181+ 1.43 Tony_Watson_SFN 40.7
XXXXX 0.63 Trevor_Gott_SFN 41.0
XXXXX 0.55 Mark_Melancon_SFN 42.3
Total 8.30 Tier=1.29

That’s a pretty decent relief staff with a Tier number 1.29 which means it’s over 1/2 standard deviation above league average.  Maybe the Cubs can knock them down a few notches these next few games.

SFN Lineup 07212019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.15 Donovan_Solano_SFN 2B-SS 114
XXXXX 0.59 Austin_Slater_SFN RF 46
XXXXX 0.97 Tyler_Austin_SFN LF-1B 140
XXXXX -1.05 Buster_Posey_SFN CR 270
XXXXX 0.55 Kevin_Pillar_SFN CF-RF 394
XXXXX 0.00 Zach_Green_SFN none 0
XXXXX -0.73 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS 346
+199+ 1.22 Mike_Yastrzemski_SFN RF-LF 171
XXXXX 0.00 Conner_Menez_SFN none 0
Total 1.40 Tier=-0.59

The above is the Giant’s lineup from yesterday.  Current league average lineup is +3.76 so this lineup is below average as one should expect based upon their negative BAT in team status.

That is all for now.   Coming next will be a look into Billy Beane’s minor league system this season and throughout the years to see how it stacks up to this data model.  Until then ….