Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers start a series in Milwaukee today.  Let’s look at what the Brewers have been up to lately.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 43 38 16.3 -24.4 4.5 20190628
MIL 54 50 18.1 -30.8 3.1 20190726

They went 11-12 in the last 4 weeks losing a game.  BAT stayed about the same and PITCH down a little.  This is a team going sideways.  Sideways doesn’t get one into the playoffs however.

CHN MIL 07_26_8:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 8 0.512 0.550 107 1.42 1.96 0.34
MIL 4 0.512 0.450 88 0.88 0.01 -0.09

At 0.512 for each team, Vegas has no clue about this game so it’s 50/50 plus their cut according to them.  TC Sim has the Cubs favored due to better Lineup, Starter, team WAA and around equal Relief.  At EV 107 this is not a betting opportunity however.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.77 0.615 108.3 1.96
Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 0.63 0.581 35.0 0.01

Hendricks has been a better pitcher than Gonzalez this season.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+050+ 3.21 Zach_Davies_MIL 113.7
+157+ 1.72 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL 117.7
XXXXX 0.92 Chase_Anderson_MIL 83.0
XXXXX 0.63 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 35.0
XXXXX -0.65 Freddy_Peralta_MIL 67.7
-025- -2.92 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL 88.7
Total 2.91 0.526

Another 6 starter rotation.  They need to figure out what kind of injury they can claim  Jhoulys Chacin came down with.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+077+ 2.56 Josh_Hader_MIL 49.7
XXXXX 0.38 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL 40.7
XXXXX 0.34 Junior_Guerra_MIL 54.7
XXXXX 0.23 Alex_Claudio_MIL 43.3
XXXXX 0.06 Adrian_Houser_MIL 52.0
XXXXX -0.15 Matt_Albers_MIL 41.7
XXXXX -0.63 Jay_Jackson_MIL 10.3
Total 2.79 Tier=-0.09

At Tier -0.09 this is almost a completely league average Relief staff based upon current rosters.  Josh Hader in top 100.  WAR has him ranked #147.

MIL Lineup 07242019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-123- -1.51 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 431
+008+ 5.77 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 416
XXXXX 0.97 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR 382
XXXXX 0.90 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 342
+193+ 1.53 Eric_Thames_MIL 1B 275
XXXXX 0.73 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 160
XXXXX -0.71 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 357
XXXXX -0.08 Tyler_Saladino_MIL SS 62
XXXXX 0.00 Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL none 0
Total 7.60 0.560

That’s their lineup from 2 days ago.  Not much more to say about that.  Note: For awhile now WAA for pitchers have been zeroed out in lineup calculations  This is fodder for the next simulation update post.

That’s all for now.  Might do some blast from the past playoff horse races to provide some perspective on the current table in Part 5.  Until then ….