Cubs Brewers start a series in Milwaukee today. Let’s look at what the Brewers have been up to lately.
MIL Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 43 | 38 | 16.3 | -24.4 | 4.5 | 20190628 |
| MIL | 54 | 50 | 18.1 | -30.8 | 3.1 | 20190726 |
They went 11-12 in the last 4 weeks losing a game. BAT stayed about the same and PITCH down a little. This is a team going sideways. Sideways doesn’t get one into the playoffs however.
CHN MIL 07_26_8:10_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 8 | 0.512 | 0.550 | 107 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.34 |
| MIL | 4 | 0.512 | 0.450 | 88 | 0.88 | 0.01 | -0.09 |
At 0.512 for each team, Vegas has no clue about this game so it’s 50/50 plus their cut according to them. TC Sim has the Cubs favored due to better Lineup, Starter, team WAA and around equal Relief. At EV 107 this is not a betting opportunity however.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 2.77 | 0.615 | 108.3 | 1.96 |
| Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | 0.63 | 0.581 | 35.0 | 0.01 |
Hendricks has been a better pitcher than Gonzalez this season.
MIL Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +050+ | 3.21 | Zach_Davies_MIL | 113.7 | |
| +157+ | 1.72 | Brandon_Woodruff_MIL | 117.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Chase_Anderson_MIL | 83.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | 35.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.65 | Freddy_Peralta_MIL | 67.7 | |
| -025- | -2.92 | Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL | 88.7 | |
| Total | 2.91 | 0.526 |
Another 6 starter rotation. They need to figure out what kind of injury they can claim Jhoulys Chacin came down with.
MIL Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +077+ | 2.56 | Josh_Hader_MIL | 49.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL | 40.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.34 | Junior_Guerra_MIL | 54.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Alex_Claudio_MIL | 43.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Adrian_Houser_MIL | 52.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.15 | Matt_Albers_MIL | 41.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.63 | Jay_Jackson_MIL | 10.3 | |
| Total | 2.79 | Tier=-0.09 |
At Tier -0.09 this is almost a completely league average Relief staff based upon current rosters. Josh Hader in top 100. WAR has him ranked #147.
MIL Lineup 07242019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -123- | -1.51 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 431 |
| +008+ | 5.77 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | RF | 416 |
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Yasmani_Grandal_MIL | CR | 382 |
| XXXXX | 0.90 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF | 342 |
| +193+ | 1.53 | Eric_Thames_MIL | 1B | 275 |
| XXXXX | 0.73 | Keston_Hiura_MIL | 2B | 160 |
| XXXXX | -0.71 | Orlando_Arcia_MIL | SS | 357 |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Tyler_Saladino_MIL | SS | 62 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Jhoulys_Chacin_MIL | none | 0 |
| Total | 7.60 | 0.560 |
That’s their lineup from 2 days ago. Not much more to say about that. Note: For awhile now WAA for pitchers have been zeroed out in lineup calculations This is fodder for the next simulation update post.
That’s all for now. Might do some blast from the past playoff horse races to provide some perspective on the current table in Part 5. Until then ….