Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers play another series after losing 2 out of 3 a few days ago.  Cubs made some trades.  Not going to comment on them though other than the Cubs didn’t give up anything and received a couple of rolls the dice and hope for the best players.

Since we covered the Brewers a few days ago we’ll do a shortened analysis using different types of tables.  First, here’s where the NL Central is today.

NL Central 20190802

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 58 50 -37.1 52.9 6.8
CHN 57 51 9.3 52.8 2.8
MIL 57 53 9.3 -30.1 5.8
CIN 50 57 -43.7 59.8 12.8
PIT 47 61 -14.1 -44.2 -11.2

Cardinal Cubs Brewers top the NL Central in that order.  Milwaukee has under water pitching  based upon seasonal run differential.  Seasonal run differential does not take into account pitchers who start today nor current relief staff sitting in the bullpen.

Below are playoff horse race records for the top teams in NL Central.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
SLN 8 8.2 -3.0 5.2 6.0 6.8
CHN 6 13.4 5.5 6.2 1.7 2.8
MIL 4 9.2 6.0 2.6 0.7 5.8

Cubs still have the highest Total WAA in NL Central.  Of the three Milwaukee has the lowest starting rotation and relief staff and around tied with Cubs for best set of hitters based upon current roster value.  Let’s see how that pans out in simulation for today’s game.

MIL CHN 08_02_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 4 0.431 0.505 X 0.74 1.39 -0.92
CHN 6 0.587 0.495 X 0.84 -0.40 -0.45

Both Cubs and Brewers relief currently under water.

These two teams a fairly even steven with each other which is what TC Sim reflects.  Vegas has the Cubs favored at around 59% today.   Betting recommends will not be made until iteration 2 of simulation which hopefully will be done by playoff season.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Zach_Davies_MIL 2.29 0.587 118.7 1.39
Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.15 0.506 116.7 -0.40

Zack Davies has been a better pitcher than Quintana so far this season and he’s also the top starter for Brewers.

MIL Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-120- -1.70 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 459
+010+ 5.50 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 448
XXXXX 0.78 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 190
XXXXX 0.84 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR 408
XXXXX 0.80 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 364
+118+ 2.06 Mike_Moustakas_MIL 3B-2B 431
XXXXX -0.29 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 112
XXXXX -1.07 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 384
XXXXX 0.00 Zach_Davies_MIL none 0
Total 6.92 TIER=0.74

Not going to get into WAR differences today.  A WAR set of posts that will highlight various differences league wide is in the works.

CHN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.73 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF 402
-140- -2.29 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH 443
+129+ 1.95 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF 452
+067+ 2.75 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 449
+056+ 3.07 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 453
XXXXX 0.50 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 415
+143+ 1.83 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR 332
XXXXX 0.25 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B 284
XXXXX 0.00 Jose_Quintana_CHN none 0
Total 7.33 TIER=0.84

Castellanos’ WAA is pretty bad and dragging down Cubs lineup today.

Nick Castellenos Career

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2018 +169+ 1.95 Nick_Castellanos_DET RF-DH XXX mlb
2016 XXXXX 0.90 Nick_Castellanos_DET 3B XXX mlb
2015 -171- -1.55 Nick_Castellanos_DET 3B XXX mlb
2014 XXXXX -0.40 Nick_Castellanos_DET 3B XXX mlb
2013 XXXXX -0.29 Nick_Castellanos_DET X XXX mlb
2013 +111+ 2.39 Nick_Castellanos_DET BAT 0.577 aaa 21
2012 -139- -1.68 Nick_Castellanos_DET BAT 0.405 aa 20
2012 XXXXX 0.73 Nick_Castellanos_DET BAT 0.558 aplus 20

Above is Nick’s total career including minors.  He ranked #165 in top 200 last season according to this data model.  His terrible WAA this season is an evaluation of the past.  In the future he can get better, play average, or tank even further.   If he recovers his WAA  above his 2015 career worst season he’ll be an asset going into playoff season.  That may be the gamble Theo et. al are taking.  Also he’s still very young according to the Age column.  Let’s hope it works out.

That is all for now.  Post trade playoff horse race next and then another Cubs status and somewhere in between an new set of posts on WAR/WAA differences.  Until then ….