Cubs Brewers play another series after losing 2 out of 3 a few days ago. Cubs made some trades. Not going to comment on them though other than the Cubs didn’t give up anything and received a couple of rolls the dice and hope for the best players.
Since we covered the Brewers a few days ago we’ll do a shortened analysis using different types of tables. First, here’s where the NL Central is today.
NL Central 20190802
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 58 | 50 | -37.1 | 52.9 | 6.8 | |
| CHN | 57 | 51 | 9.3 | 52.8 | 2.8 | |
| MIL | 57 | 53 | 9.3 | -30.1 | 5.8 | |
| CIN | 50 | 57 | -43.7 | 59.8 | 12.8 | |
| PIT | 47 | 61 | -14.1 | -44.2 | -11.2 |
Cardinal Cubs Brewers top the NL Central in that order. Milwaukee has under water pitching based upon seasonal run differential. Seasonal run differential does not take into account pitchers who start today nor current relief staff sitting in the bullpen.
Below are playoff horse race records for the top teams in NL Central.
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 8 | 8.2 | -3.0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.8 |
| CHN | 6 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| MIL | 4 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 5.8 |
Cubs still have the highest Total WAA in NL Central. Of the three Milwaukee has the lowest starting rotation and relief staff and around tied with Cubs for best set of hitters based upon current roster value. Let’s see how that pans out in simulation for today’s game.
MIL CHN 08_02_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0.431 | 0.505 | X | 0.74 | 1.39 | -0.92 |
| CHN | 6 | 0.587 | 0.495 | X | 0.84 | -0.40 | -0.45 |
Both Cubs and Brewers relief currently under water.
These two teams a fairly even steven with each other which is what TC Sim reflects. Vegas has the Cubs favored at around 59% today. Betting recommends will not be made until iteration 2 of simulation which hopefully will be done by playoff season.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach_Davies_MIL | 2.29 | 0.587 | 118.7 | 1.39 |
| Jose_Quintana_CHN | 0.15 | 0.506 | 116.7 | -0.40 |
Zack Davies has been a better pitcher than Quintana so far this season and he’s also the top starter for Brewers.
MIL Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -120- | -1.70 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 459 |
| +010+ | 5.50 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | RF | 448 |
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Keston_Hiura_MIL | 2B | 190 |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Yasmani_Grandal_MIL | CR | 408 |
| XXXXX | 0.80 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF | 364 |
| +118+ | 2.06 | Mike_Moustakas_MIL | 3B-2B | 431 |
| XXXXX | -0.29 | Manny_Pina_MIL | CR | 112 |
| XXXXX | -1.07 | Orlando_Arcia_MIL | SS | 384 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Zach_Davies_MIL | none | 0 |
| Total | 6.92 | TIER=0.74 |
Not going to get into WAR differences today. A WAR set of posts that will highlight various differences league wide is in the works.
CHN Lineup
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.73 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF-CF | 402 |
| -140- | -2.29 | Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN | RF-DH | 443 |
| +129+ | 1.95 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B-RF-LF | 452 |
| +067+ | 2.75 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 449 |
| +056+ | 3.07 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | 453 |
| XXXXX | 0.50 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 415 |
| +143+ | 1.83 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | CR | 332 |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | David_Bote_CHN | 3B-2B | 284 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Jose_Quintana_CHN | none | 0 |
| Total | 7.33 | TIER=0.84 |
Castellanos’ WAA is pretty bad and dragging down Cubs lineup today.
Nick Castellenos Career
| Year | Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | WinPct | League | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +169+ | 1.95 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | RF-DH | XXX | mlb | ||
| 2016 | XXXXX | 0.90 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | 3B | XXX | mlb | ||
| 2015 | -171- | -1.55 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | 3B | XXX | mlb | ||
| 2014 | XXXXX | -0.40 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | 3B | XXX | mlb | ||
| 2013 | XXXXX | -0.29 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | X | XXX | mlb | ||
| 2013 | +111+ | 2.39 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | BAT | 0.577 | aaa | 21 | |
| 2012 | -139- | -1.68 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | BAT | 0.405 | aa | 20 | |
| 2012 | XXXXX | 0.73 | Nick_Castellanos_DET | BAT | 0.558 | aplus | 20 |
Above is Nick’s total career including minors. He ranked #165 in top 200 last season according to this data model. His terrible WAA this season is an evaluation of the past. In the future he can get better, play average, or tank even further. If he recovers his WAA above his 2015 career worst season he’ll be an asset going into playoff season. That may be the gamble Theo et. al are taking. Also he’s still very young according to the Age column. Let’s hope it works out.
That is all for now. Post trade playoff horse race next and then another Cubs status and somewhere in between an new set of posts on WAR/WAA differences. Until then ….