Cubs Team Status

It has been around 3 weeks since we did a Cubs Team Status post.  They finish a series with Oakland today before staring another one with CIN tomorrow.  Let’s look at this Cubs team according to current rosters.

CHN Team Status

CHN 51 44 29.1 38.1 -1.7 20190717
CHN 61 52 11.8 55.8 3.4 20190807

Cubs wen from +7 three weeks ago to +9 as of yesterday gaining 2 games.  Adding three wins per month is around par for the course for a team hoping to make the playoffs, thus Cubs need to be around +15 by the end of August.  PITCH improved more than BAT tanked.

CHN 5 year split

20150807 12 -27.9 44.7 -0.7
20160807 28 60.8 110.5 8.1
20170807 7 7.7 39.7 -7.0
20180807 19 58.4 39.6 5.0
20190807 9 11.8 55.8 3.4

Cubs made the playoffs each of the last 4 years.   The above table shows where they were on this day for each of the 5 years.  Team 2017 is gaining ground on team 2019.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 0.86
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN -0.17
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 2.95
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 3.00
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.44
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.29
RP -0.84

Above are  tier assignments for various categories.  Hendricks and Hamels top Cubs’ starter rotation; both having an around a +3 tier number.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+026+ 4.33 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 126.7
+034+ 4.12 Cole_Hamels_CHN 104.7
XXXXX 0.48 Yu_Darvish_CHN 126.0
XXXXX 0.34 Jose_Quintana_CHN 122.7
XXXXX 0.17 Jon_Lester_CHN 123.0
Total 9.44 0.570

Both Hendricks and Hamels rank in top 100.  The rest are above average.  Lester is one of the all time top performers in playoff season however so if Cubs make the playoffs they have 3 very good starting pitchers.  Unfortunately the next table isn’t so good.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+183+ 1.55 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 42.7
XXXXX 1.22 Steve_Cishek_CHN 49.3
XXXXX 0.48 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 54.3
XXXXX 0.25 David_Phelps_CHN 18.7
XXXXX 0.21 Duane_Underwood_CHN 2.0
XXXXX 0 Rowan_Wick 0
XXXXX -0.44 Pedro_Strop_CHN 27.7
-098- -1.97 Derek_Holland_CHN 74.3
Total 1.30 Tier=-0.84

At Tier# -0.84 Cubs relief is almost 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters.  Under water relief is not good for any team thinking they can go all the way in the playoffs.   Notably missing is Kintzler, ranked #94, and Kimbrel who both went on IL.  Kintzler’s +2.37 WAA would propel Cubs relief around league average.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+037+ 3.93 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+095+ 2.35 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+140+ 1.91 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 0.67 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.15 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.13 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.10 Taylor_Davis_CHN BAT
XXXXX -0.08 Ian_Happ_CHN BAT
XXXXX -0.42 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -0.71 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
-175- -1.43 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
XXXXX -1.85 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
Total 4.75 0.523

Cubs hitting squad took a hit from acquiring Castellanos from DET.  We covered Castellanos career in the MIL matchup post earlier. Note: Tier numbers are calculated on lineups not complete hitting squads.

Castellenos is young, was ranked last season, and has potential to recover much of his negative value these next 7 weeks.  Player acquisition is  gambling where not all bets will pay off.  A GM can only hope that his entire decision tree gives his team an edge over the other 29 teams.

This model is a more accurate reflection of the past than any Sabermetric value stat.  It can’t predict the future.  If a GM is getting bad information about the past using flawed stats  developed for Draft Kings teams and not real baseball teams then acquisition decisions are built upon a faulty foundation.  The past is the foundation from which one can estimate the future.  This model only presents the past.

That is all for now.  Matchup post with CIN will start up again tomorrow.  Until then ….