It has been around 3 weeks since we did a Cubs Team Status post. They finish a series with Oakland today before staring another one with CIN tomorrow. Let’s look at this Cubs team according to current rosters.
CHN Team Status
Cubs wen from +7 three weeks ago to +9 as of yesterday gaining 2 games. Adding three wins per month is around par for the course for a team hoping to make the playoffs, thus Cubs need to be around +15 by the end of August. PITCH improved more than BAT tanked.
CHN 5 year split
Cubs made the playoffs each of the last 4 years. The above table shows where they were on this day for each of the 5 years. Team 2017 is gaining ground on team 2019.
Above are tier assignments for various categories. Hendricks and Hamels top Cubs’ starter rotation; both having an around a +3 tier number.
Both Hendricks and Hamels rank in top 100. The rest are above average. Lester is one of the all time top performers in playoff season however so if Cubs make the playoffs they have 3 very good starting pitchers. Unfortunately the next table isn’t so good.
At Tier# -0.84 Cubs relief is almost 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters. Under water relief is not good for any team thinking they can go all the way in the playoffs. Notably missing is Kintzler, ranked #94, and Kimbrel who both went on IL. Kintzler’s +2.37 WAA would propel Cubs relief around league average.
Cubs hitting squad took a hit from acquiring Castellanos from DET. We covered Castellanos career in the MIL matchup post earlier. Note: Tier numbers are calculated on lineups not complete hitting squads.
Castellenos is young, was ranked last season, and has potential to recover much of his negative value these next 7 weeks. Player acquisition is gambling where not all bets will pay off. A GM can only hope that his entire decision tree gives his team an edge over the other 29 teams.
This model is a more accurate reflection of the past than any Sabermetric value stat. It can’t predict the future. If a GM is getting bad information about the past using flawed stats developed for Draft Kings teams and not real baseball teams then acquisition decisions are built upon a faulty foundation. The past is the foundation from which one can estimate the future. This model only presents the past.
That is all for now. Matchup post with CIN will start up again tomorrow. Until then ….