Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs Reds play once again as they did around 3 weeks ago.  Let’s look at this Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 43 50 -51.4 72.0 14.0 20190718
CIN 54 58 -43.1 67.8 14.7 20190808

Reds went 11-8 gaining 3 games in the last three weeks.  BAT improved, PITCH went down a little and UR is top of MLB right now.

CHN CIN 08_08_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.548 0.639 X 0.64 2.94 -0.84
CIN -4 0.474 0.361 X -2.10 -0.29 -1.96

Vegas has the Cubs with around 55% break even probability which is low compared to TC Sim at around 64%.  Betting recs will not be made until the next iteration of simulation is complete.   Although Cubs lineup took a hit it is still better than Reds along with today’s starter.  For some reason CIN has pretty bad relief which doesn’t jive with their  PITCH based upon seasonal runs scored against.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Cole_Hamels_CHN 4.09 0.676 104.7 2.94
Alex_Wood_CIN 0.38 0.651 11.3 -0.29

Hamels having a stellar year and almost maxed out at +3 which is 1.5 standard deviations above league average for starters.  Alex Wood must have been injured as he only  pitched 11 1/3 innings so far this season.  He pitched a stellar season in 2017 and pitched an above average 2018.   Bottom line: Alex Wood is a wild card in this game because we don’t know much about him yet this season.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+006+ 6.40 Luis_Castillo_CIN 137.0
+038+ 3.91 Sonny_Gray_CIN 121.7
+095+ 2.60 Trevor_Bauer_CIN 161.3
XXXXX 1.16 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 113.7
XXXXX 0.38 Alex_Wood_CIN 11.3
Total 14.45 0.619

This is a very good starting rotation and the Cubs face their worst starter tonight.  The above does jive with their above average PITCH in team status.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+112+ 2.21 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 59.3
+137+ 1.99 Amir_Garrett_CIN 43.7
XXXXX 0.71 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 49.3
XXXXX 0.27 Jared_Hughes_CIN 43.3
XXXXX -0.06 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 46.0
XXXXX -0.25 Lucas_Sims_CIN 21.0
-048- -2.50 David_Hernandez_CIN 41.0
-024- -3.28 Kevin_Gausman_CIN 80.0
Total -0.91 TIER=-1.96

The above is an under water relief staff worse than the Cubs.  Reds could have above average relievers on IL.  This model does not keep track of that nor does it matter for tonight’s game.

CIN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.76 Nick_Senzel_CIN CF 318
-043- -2.60 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 456
XXXXX 1.05 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 469
XXXXX 0.59 Aristides_Aquino_CIN BAT 17
XXXXX -0.88 Jose_Iglesias_CIN SS 373
XXXXX 0.00 Phillip_Ervin_CIN none 0
-105- -1.83 Jose_Peraza_CIN 2B-SS-LF 300
XXXXX 0.48 Kyle_Farmer_CIN 2B-1B 133
XXXXX -0.13 Alex_Wood_CIN BAT 5
Total -4.08 TIER=-2.10

It looks like we have today’s lineup for the game tonight.  This lineup is under water which matches their under water BAT in team status.  Joey Votto having a bad season according to this model.  Owners of Draft Kings teams have seen Votto recover much value important for their success from earlier in the season however so they’re happy.

That’s all for now.  This is a four game series.    Until then ….