Cubs Reds play once again as they did around 3 weeks ago. Let’s look at this Reds team.
CIN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 43 | 50 | -51.4 | 72.0 | 14.0 | 20190718 |
| CIN | 54 | 58 | -43.1 | 67.8 | 14.7 | 20190808 |
Reds went 11-8 gaining 3 games in the last three weeks. BAT improved, PITCH went down a little and UR is top of MLB right now.
CHN CIN 08_08_7:10_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 10 | 0.548 | 0.639 | X | 0.64 | 2.94 | -0.84 |
| CIN | -4 | 0.474 | 0.361 | X | -2.10 | -0.29 | -1.96 |
Vegas has the Cubs with around 55% break even probability which is low compared to TC Sim at around 64%. Betting recs will not be made until the next iteration of simulation is complete. Although Cubs lineup took a hit it is still better than Reds along with today’s starter. For some reason CIN has pretty bad relief which doesn’t jive with their PITCH based upon seasonal runs scored against.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole_Hamels_CHN | 4.09 | 0.676 | 104.7 | 2.94 |
| Alex_Wood_CIN | 0.38 | 0.651 | 11.3 | -0.29 |
Hamels having a stellar year and almost maxed out at +3 which is 1.5 standard deviations above league average for starters. Alex Wood must have been injured as he only pitched 11 1/3 innings so far this season. He pitched a stellar season in 2017 and pitched an above average 2018. Bottom line: Alex Wood is a wild card in this game because we don’t know much about him yet this season.
CIN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +006+ | 6.40 | Luis_Castillo_CIN | 137.0 | |
| +038+ | 3.91 | Sonny_Gray_CIN | 121.7 | |
| +095+ | 2.60 | Trevor_Bauer_CIN | 161.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.16 | Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN | 113.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Alex_Wood_CIN | 11.3 | |
| Total | 14.45 | 0.619 |
This is a very good starting rotation and the Cubs face their worst starter tonight. The above does jive with their above average PITCH in team status.
CIN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +112+ | 2.21 | Michael_Lorenzen_CIN | 59.3 | |
| +137+ | 1.99 | Amir_Garrett_CIN | 43.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Raisel_Iglesias_CIN | 49.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | Jared_Hughes_CIN | 43.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.06 | Robert_Stephenson_CIN | 46.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Lucas_Sims_CIN | 21.0 | |
| -048- | -2.50 | David_Hernandez_CIN | 41.0 | |
| -024- | -3.28 | Kevin_Gausman_CIN | 80.0 | |
| Total | -0.91 | TIER=-1.96 |
The above is an under water relief staff worse than the Cubs. Reds could have above average relievers on IL. This model does not keep track of that nor does it matter for tonight’s game.
CIN Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Nick_Senzel_CIN | CF | 318 |
| -043- | -2.60 | Joey_Votto_CIN | 1B | 456 |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 469 |
| XXXXX | 0.59 | Aristides_Aquino_CIN | BAT | 17 |
| XXXXX | -0.88 | Jose_Iglesias_CIN | SS | 373 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Phillip_Ervin_CIN | none | 0 |
| -105- | -1.83 | Jose_Peraza_CIN | 2B-SS-LF | 300 |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Kyle_Farmer_CIN | 2B-1B | 133 |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Alex_Wood_CIN | BAT | 5 |
| Total | -4.08 | TIER=-2.10 |
It looks like we have today’s lineup for the game tonight. This lineup is under water which matches their under water BAT in team status. Joey Votto having a bad season according to this model. Owners of Draft Kings teams have seen Votto recover much value important for their success from earlier in the season however so they’re happy.
That’s all for now. This is a four game series. Until then ….