Cubs Phillies start another series tonight. Let’s see what the Phillies have been up to lately.
PHI Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 48 | 46 | -0.2 | -22.8 | 5.8 | 20190716 |
| PHI | 60 | 58 | -19.1 | -17.2 | 1.0 | 20190813 |
Phillies went 12-12 the last 4 weeks breaking even. Their BAT tanked and PITCH improved slightly. At +2 they’re still in the hunt for a wild card but they’re in 4th place in NL East so probably won’t be able to catch Atlanta.
CHN PHI 08_13_7:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 10 | 0.565 | 0.556 | 98 | 1.04 | 0.04 | -1.23 |
| PHI | 2 | 0.455 | 0.444 | 98 | -0.53 | 0.10 | -0.93 |
TC Sim and Vegas are in complete agreement with this game. Lineup value is from the last game each of these two teams played which was 2 days ago. Tonight’s lineup comes out later and I don’t want to wait.
Cubs have a slightly better lineup, starters about the same, and both relief staffs kind of stink; both around 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters. Cubs are +8 on the Phillies in the win loss columns, the only stat in baseball that matters.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose_Quintana_CHN | 0.84 | 0.529 | 129.7 | 0.04 |
| Jason_Vargas_TOT | 0.92 | 0.539 | 105.7 | 0.10 |
Both starters around equal and both around league average according to current rosters. Not much to see here.
PHI Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +075+ | 2.90 | Aaron_Nola_PHI | 147.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.01 | Jason_Vargas_PHI | 105.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | Vince_Velasquez_PHI | 83.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.44 | Jake_Arrieta_PHI | 135.7 | |
| -006- | -4.22 | Drew_Smyly_PHI | 75.0 | |
| Total | -0.35 | 0.497 |
Drew Smyly having a bad year. Hopefully he has to pitch in this series. I heard Jake Arrieta might be injured.
PHI Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +195+ | 1.55 | Jose_Alvarez_PHI | 44.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.13 | Hector_Neris_PHI | 48.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.73 | Mike_Morin_PHI | 33.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Ranger_Suarez_PHI | 27.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Blake_Parker_PHI | 43.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Zach_Eflin_PHI | 118.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Juan_Nicasio_PHI | 42.7 | |
| -140- | -1.66 | Nick_Pivetta_PHI | 84.0 | |
| Total | 1.23 | TIER=-0.93 |
They don’t have any stellar relievers. This is a below average relief staff but still better than Cubs’ relief.
PHI Lineup 08112019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +118+ | 2.23 | Bryce_Harper_PHI | RF | 513 |
| XXXXX | 0.34 | Rhys_Hoskins_PHI | 1B | 513 |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Jean_Segura_PHI | SS | 455 |
| +161+ | 1.72 | J.T._Realmuto_PHI | CR | 439 |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Scott_Kingery_PHI | CF-3B-SS-LF | 338 |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Sean_Rodriguez_PHI | BAT | 87 |
| -139- | -1.78 | Cesar_Hernandez_PHI | 2B | 473 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Jake_Arrieta_PHI | none | 0 |
| XXXXX | -0.67 | Roman_Quinn_PHI | CF | 107 |
| Total | 1,55 | TIER=-0.53 |
This is a below average lineup according to current rosters. As a season progresses bad players move off rosters to be replaced by new guys starting at WAA=0. This raises league average for all three categories; lineups, relief, and starters. PHI has a +1.55 WAA but that is currently under water based upon the other 29 teams. Tier numbers are used in simulation.
That is all for now. Cubs are at +10 and if they get to +15 by the end of August they’ll have an average of +3 added wins per month which is what playoff contenders should be at. Playoff horse race posted yesterday shows they’ll be underdogs to win it all this season regardless. But MLB still makes them play the games so there’s that.
That is all for now. Need to fix a mistake made yesterday. Until then ….