Cubs Phillies Matchup

Cubs Phillies start another series tonight.  Let’s see what the Phillies have been up to lately.

PHI Team Status

PHI 48 46 -0.2 -22.8 5.8 20190716
PHI 60 58 -19.1 -17.2 1.0 20190813

Phillies went 12-12 the last 4 weeks breaking even.  Their BAT tanked and PITCH improved slightly.  At +2 they’re still in the hunt for a wild card but they’re in 4th place in NL East so probably won’t be able to catch Atlanta.

CHN PHI 08_13_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.565 0.556 98 1.04 0.04 -1.23
PHI 2 0.455 0.444 98 -0.53 0.10 -0.93

TC Sim and Vegas are in complete agreement with this game.  Lineup value is from the last game each of these two teams played which was 2 days ago.  Tonight’s lineup comes out later and I don’t want to wait.

Cubs  have a slightly better lineup, starters about the same, and both relief staffs kind of stink; both around 1/2 standard deviation below league average based upon current rosters. Cubs are +8 on the Phillies in the win loss columns, the only stat in baseball that matters.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.84 0.529 129.7 0.04
Jason_Vargas_TOT 0.92 0.539 105.7 0.10

Both starters around equal and both around league average according to current rosters.    Not much to  see here.

PHI Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+075+ 2.90 Aaron_Nola_PHI 147.3
XXXXX 1.01 Jason_Vargas_PHI 105.7
XXXXX 0.40 Vince_Velasquez_PHI 83.7
XXXXX -0.44 Jake_Arrieta_PHI 135.7
-006- -4.22 Drew_Smyly_PHI 75.0
Total -0.35 0.497

Drew Smyly having a bad year.  Hopefully he has to pitch in this series.  I heard Jake Arrieta might be injured.

PHI Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+195+ 1.55 Jose_Alvarez_PHI 44.7
XXXXX 1.13 Hector_Neris_PHI 48.7
XXXXX 0.73 Mike_Morin_PHI 33.0
XXXXX 0.10 Ranger_Suarez_PHI 27.0
XXXXX 0.10 Blake_Parker_PHI 43.3
XXXXX 0.04 Zach_Eflin_PHI 118.3
XXXXX -0.76 Juan_Nicasio_PHI 42.7
-140- -1.66 Nick_Pivetta_PHI 84.0
Total 1.23 TIER=-0.93

They don’t have any stellar relievers.  This is a below average relief staff but still better than Cubs’ relief.

PHI Lineup 08112019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+118+ 2.23 Bryce_Harper_PHI RF 513
XXXXX 0.34 Rhys_Hoskins_PHI 1B 513
XXXXX -0.17 Jean_Segura_PHI SS 455
+161+ 1.72 J.T._Realmuto_PHI CR 439
XXXXX -0.50 Scott_Kingery_PHI CF-3B-SS-LF 338
XXXXX 0.38 Sean_Rodriguez_PHI BAT 87
-139- -1.78 Cesar_Hernandez_PHI 2B 473
XXXXX 0.00 Jake_Arrieta_PHI none 0
XXXXX -0.67 Roman_Quinn_PHI CF 107
Total 1,55 TIER=-0.53

This is a below average lineup according to current rosters.  As a season progresses bad players move off rosters to be replaced by new guys starting at WAA=0.  This raises league average for all three categories; lineups, relief, and starters.  PHI has a +1.55 WAA but that is currently under water based upon the other 29 teams.  Tier numbers are used in simulation.

That is all for now.  Cubs are at +10 and if they get to +15 by the end of August they’ll have an average of +3 added wins per month which is what playoff contenders should be at.  Playoff horse race posted yesterday shows they’ll be underdogs to win it all this season regardless.  But MLB still makes them play the games so there’s that.

That is all for now.  Need to fix a mistake made yesterday.  Until then ….