Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates play again.  Let’s see what the last place team in NL Central has been up to.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 45 50 -4.8 -43.9 1.0 20190719
PIT 50 70 -17.3 -50.9 -19.8 20190816

Last 4 week split they went 5-20 losing 15 games.  That is what they call in the industry a collapse.  BAT tanked, PITCH somewhat tanked, and their fielding as represented by UR tanked the most.  At -20 PIT is in wait till next year mode.  Hopefully Cubs get to see more of that horrible UR in the next three games.

CHN PIT 08_16_7:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 0.574 0.597 104 0.50 1.84 -0.79
PIT -20 0.444 0.403 91 0.70 -0.87 -0.72

Both lineups about the same hovering slightly above average.  Cubs have a better starter tonight and both relief squads are terrible.  TC Sim favors Cubs around 60% mostly due to their much better win/loss record.  DeltaWAA between these two teams is +27 in favor of the Cubs and the Cubs really need to sweep this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 3.25 0.613 129.3 1.84
Joe_Musgrove_PIT -0.40 0.486 130.0 -0.97

Hendricks had a bad outing and dropped a bit but still far ahead of Musgrove.  Since lineups and relief are around the same for both teams the main advantage for the Cubs comes from better starter and better real team WAA.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.48 Steven_Brault_PIT 70.7
XXXXX -0.27 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 130.0
XXXXX -1.32 Mitch_Keller_PIT 17.0
-160- -1.53 Trevor_Williams_PIT 104.7
-134- -1.70 Chris_Archer_PIT 118.7
Total -4.34 0.456

This is a rather terrible starting rotation that aligns with their PITCH in team status based upon seasonal runs scored against.  PIT relief isn’t much better.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+064+ 3.17 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 47.0
+156+ 1.87 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 56.3
XXXXX 0.88 Michael_Feliz_PIT 41.3
XXXXX 0.55 Keone_Kela_PIT 16.7
XXXXX 0.08 Kyle_Crick_PIT 43.7
XXXXX -1.11 Chris_Stratton_PIT 64.7
-135- -1.70 Clay_Holmes_PIT 33.0
-062- -2.46 Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT 26.0
Total 1.28 TIER=-0.72

Current league average relief staff is +2.86 so this relief staff is under water and  around  Cubs relief in total value.   PIT has a very good reliever in Vazquez and Liriano, who used to start, is also pitching well in the bullpen.  Cubs hitters will need to knock starters out early to get into the bottom of this squad.

PIT Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-059- -2.50 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 452
+165+ 1.83 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF 383
+078+ 2.88 Starling_Marte_PIT CF 495
+014+ 5.98 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 501
XXXXX 0.78 Colin_Moran_PIT 3B-2B 371
XXXXX -0.48 Melky_Cabrera_PIT RF-LF 319
-143- -1.64 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 363
XXXXX -0.65 Jacob_Stallings_PIT CR 117
XXXXX 0.00 Joe_Musgrove_PIT none 0
Total 6.20 TIER=0.70

This is tonight’s lineup and it’s quite a mix of hitters that balance out slightly above average with a Tier # of 0.70.  This valuation aligns with their slightly below BAT in team status based upon seasonal runs scored.

That is all for now.  Blast from the Past showing playoff horse races on this day for some notable Cubs seasons like 2003 and 2008 and others coming next.  Until then ….