Cubs Pirates play again. Let’s see what the last place team in NL Central has been up to.
PIT Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 45 | 50 | -4.8 | -43.9 | 1.0 | 20190719 |
| PIT | 50 | 70 | -17.3 | -50.9 | -19.8 | 20190816 |
Last 4 week split they went 5-20 losing 15 games. That is what they call in the industry a collapse. BAT tanked, PITCH somewhat tanked, and their fielding as represented by UR tanked the most. At -20 PIT is in wait till next year mode. Hopefully Cubs get to see more of that horrible UR in the next three games.
CHN PIT 08_16_7:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 7 | 0.574 | 0.597 | 104 | 0.50 | 1.84 | -0.79 |
| PIT | -20 | 0.444 | 0.403 | 91 | 0.70 | -0.87 | -0.72 |
Both lineups about the same hovering slightly above average. Cubs have a better starter tonight and both relief squads are terrible. TC Sim favors Cubs around 60% mostly due to their much better win/loss record. DeltaWAA between these two teams is +27 in favor of the Cubs and the Cubs really need to sweep this series.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 3.25 | 0.613 | 129.3 | 1.84 |
| Joe_Musgrove_PIT | -0.40 | 0.486 | 130.0 | -0.97 |
Hendricks had a bad outing and dropped a bit but still far ahead of Musgrove. Since lineups and relief are around the same for both teams the main advantage for the Cubs comes from better starter and better real team WAA.
PIT Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Steven_Brault_PIT | 70.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | 130.0 | |
| XXXXX | -1.32 | Mitch_Keller_PIT | 17.0 | |
| -160- | -1.53 | Trevor_Williams_PIT | 104.7 | |
| -134- | -1.70 | Chris_Archer_PIT | 118.7 | |
| Total | -4.34 | 0.456 |
This is a rather terrible starting rotation that aligns with their PITCH in team status based upon seasonal runs scored against. PIT relief isn’t much better.
PIT Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +064+ | 3.17 | Felipe_Vazquez_PIT | 47.0 | |
| +156+ | 1.87 | Francisco_Liriano_PIT | 56.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Michael_Feliz_PIT | 41.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Keone_Kela_PIT | 16.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Kyle_Crick_PIT | 43.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.11 | Chris_Stratton_PIT | 64.7 | |
| -135- | -1.70 | Clay_Holmes_PIT | 33.0 | |
| -062- | -2.46 | Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT | 26.0 | |
| Total | 1.28 | TIER=-0.72 |
Current league average relief staff is +2.86 so this relief staff is under water and around Cubs relief in total value. PIT has a very good reliever in Vazquez and Liriano, who used to start, is also pitching well in the bullpen. Cubs hitters will need to knock starters out early to get into the bottom of this squad.
PIT Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -059- | -2.50 | Adam_Frazier_PIT | 2B | 452 |
| +165+ | 1.83 | Bryan_Reynolds_PIT | LF-RF | 383 |
| +078+ | 2.88 | Starling_Marte_PIT | CF | 495 |
| +014+ | 5.98 | Josh_Bell_PIT | 1B | 501 |
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Colin_Moran_PIT | 3B-2B | 371 |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Melky_Cabrera_PIT | RF-LF | 319 |
| -143- | -1.64 | Kevin_Newman_PIT | SS-2B | 363 |
| XXXXX | -0.65 | Jacob_Stallings_PIT | CR | 117 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | none | 0 |
| Total | 6.20 | TIER=0.70 |
This is tonight’s lineup and it’s quite a mix of hitters that balance out slightly above average with a Tier # of 0.70. This valuation aligns with their slightly below BAT in team status based upon seasonal runs scored.
That is all for now. Blast from the Past showing playoff horse races on this day for some notable Cubs seasons like 2003 and 2008 and others coming next. Until then ….