2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 8

It has been around 10 days since Part 7 of this playoff horse race series so let’s again take a look at how the three different models; ELO, WAR, and this model ranks the current top MLB teams.

ELOelo3

The above is a snapshot taken today (8/22) of ELO rankings.  Let’s look at the rankings generated by this model.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
LAN 40 51.3 24.0 22.0 5.3 -17.4
HOU 34 47.9 16.8 23.4 7.7 7.6
MIN 27 40.5 23.9 7.1 9.5 -14.4
NYA 38 29.3 23.3 -3.7 9.6 9.6
ATL 24 28.8 11.7 9.3 7.8 -14.4
WAS 12 25.3 18.2 10.0 -3.0 16.6
CLE 21 22.5 2.4 11.1 9.1 4.6
BOS 6 22.5 22.7 -5.8 5.6 -4.4
CHN 10 19.9 5.8 9.9 4.3 3.6
OAK 20 18.7 3.9 7.6 7.2 21.6
NYN 6 15.0 0.5 15.1 -0.7 5.6
SLN 9 13.8 -5.6 7.2 12.3 10.6
TBA 20 11.0 -4.5 8.6 6.9 2.6
MIL 3 10.5 6.0 3.9 0.6 5.6
PHI 6 6.8 2.0 0.8 4.0 4.6

Bold brown above are division leaders, bold green wild card leaders.   Bold blue category leaders, bold red category worst of top 15 teams.  Relief, Starter, and Hitter value added together to make Total in units of wins.  UR is unearned runs above average in units of runs and included to provide some indication of team fielding.  Amazingly three of the top 5 teams have given way more unearned runs than average.

This model has the Twins and Braves ranked much higher than ELO has them.  Cubs are bottom mid tier in ELO as well as WAA and both models have Cardinals ranked lower.  Atlanta is ranked top mid tier well above CHN.  ELO has Atlanta ranked worse than CHN.  Those two teams are currently slated to meet in NLDS if everything above stays the same.

Washington has weak relief. Yankees and Boston have weak starting pitching.  Cardinals have the best set of relievers right now but WAR may not agree.  Let’s see what WAR has to say…

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 34 53.7 30.1 17.5 6.1 7.6
MIN 27 40.5 27.6 8.4 4.5 -14.4
LAN 40 39.5 28.4 10.5 0.6 -17.4
NYA 38 36.6 26.1 3.9 6.6 9.6
OAK 20 36.1 20.2 10.6 5.3 21.6
BOS 6 35.7 23.4 3.9 8.4 -4.4
WAS 12 33.3 18.9 12.9 1.5 16.6
CLE 21 33.3 18.6 9.3 5.4 4.6
ATL 24 33.1 17.1 10.0 6.0 -14.4
CHN 10 31.7 16.8 10.6 4.3 3.6
SLN 9 27.7 16.5 5.8 5.4 10.6
TBA 20 27.6 15.0 7.5 5.1 2.6
MIL 3 26.1 17.7 5.8 2.6 5.6
NYN 6 24.1 8.8 14.4 0.9 5.6
PHI 6 23.8 12.7 6.6 4.5 4.6

The separation of HOU with second place is 13 WAR.  From 2nd to 13th cover the next 13 WAR so tiers are kind of bunched together below HOU.  This disagrees with both WAA and ELO models.

WAR has Dodger relief negative which is quite remarkable since WAR rarely goes negative.  Let’s drill down into LAN relief and compare WAA and WAR.  Unfortunately we don’t have access to ELO’s individual evaluations.

LAN Relief WAR

Rank WAR Name_TeamID
XXXXX 0.9 Casey_Sadler_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.7 Adam_Kolarek_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Yimi_Garcia_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.1 Kenley_Jansen_LAN PITCH
XXXXX 0.0 Dustin_May_LAN PITCH
XXXXX -0.2 Pedro_Baez_LAN PITCH
-126- -0.5 Joe_Kelly_LAN PITCH
-126- -0.5 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN PITCH
Total 0.6

Looks like Joe Kelly and Caleb Ferguson are in  WAR’s dog house.  All the rest of LAN’s staff are meh according to WAR.  Let’s see what this model thinks of this relief squad.

LAN Relief WAA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+121+ 2.21 Casey_Sadler_LAN 31.7
XXXXX 1.36 Pedro_Baez_LAN 55.0
XXXXX 0.90 Kenley_Jansen_LAN 48.7
XXXXX 0.80 Yimi_Garcia_LAN 49.7
XXXXX 0.78 Adam_Kolarek_LAN 46.7
XXXXX 0.10 Dustin_May_LAN 19.0
XXXXX 0.06 Joe_Kelly_LAN 42.7
XXXXX -0.92 Caleb_Ferguson_LAN 29.3
Total 5.29 Tier=0.79

This isn’t a stellar relief staff one would expect with the best PITCH in MLB but it’s  capable and certainly not worst of the top 15 MLB teams.  Casay Sadler ranked top 200 and could make top 100 by end of season.   WAR in general under values relief which sometimes puts relievers in the muddy middle where they don’t get credit for contributing to their team winning.

The next part of this series will come out 9/1 using the last roster in August.  September call ups expand rosters and can distort these rankings so we might do one mid September and then wait for the real playoff rosters starting with divisional series.

That is all for now.  Until then ….