Cubs Nationals play again this weekend at Wrigley. Cubs got shellacked yesterday. Let’s take a look at this Nationals team.
WAS Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 55 | 48 | 6.6 | 28.9 | 8.4 | 20190727 |
| WAS | 71 | 57 | 52.9 | 29.3 | 15.1 | 20190824 |
In the last 4 weeks WAS went 16-9 gaining 7 games which is a very good run. These wins are almost entirely due to hitting as their BAT soared. UR also way up. It will be difficult for them to overtake Atlanta but these things have happened before to teams in September. Let’s look at what tonight’s game looks like.
WAS CHN 08_24_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 14 | 0.417 | 0.501 | X | 1.89 | -1.38 | -2.82 |
| CHN | 10 | 0.600 | 0.499 | X | 0.29 | 0.97 | 1.25 |
Vegas has Cubs favored by almost 60% according to Vegas and Tier Combo simulation has this game almost even steven. EV is still turned off for now. WAS has a much better lineup than Cubs which we saw evidence with BAT in their team status. Cubs have better pitching and surprisingly better relief. WAS has better WAA (i.e. win/loss record).
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe_Ross_WAS | -0.97 | 0.406 | 46.0 | -1.38 |
| Jose_Quintana_CHN | 2.21 | 0.570 | 142.7 | 0.97 |
Quintana is a better pitcher than Ross this season. If the Cubs knock out Ross early and get into WAS poor relief this game could get interesting.
WAS Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +022+ | 5.23 | Patrick_Corbin_WAS | 161.7 | |
| +063+ | 3.49 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 165.0 | |
| +120+ | 2.29 | Anibal_Sanchez_WAS | 130.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Erick_Fedde_WAS | 71.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.99 | Joe_Ross_WAS | 46.0 | |
| Total | 10.44 | 0.582 |
Three top starters which can easily get a team through a 6 game divisional series. Ross is their worst starter. Strasburg or Corbin will most likely pitch a wild card game if it comes to that.
WAS Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +124+ | 2.21 | Daniel_Hudson_WAS | 57.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Hunter_Strickland_WAS | 12.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.34 | Tanner_Rainey_WAS | 32.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Javy_Guerra_WAS | 55.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Wander_Suero_WAS | 55.3 | |
| XXXXX | -1.03 | Fernando_Rodney_WAS | 32.0 | |
| -117- | -1.95 | Matt_Grace_WAS | 46.7 | |
| -102- | -2.08 | Kyle_McGowin_WAS | 16.0 | |
| Total | -2.66 | TIER=-2.82 |
Relief is WAS Achilles heel as it was in past seasons. Although we max out at +4 and -4 now, an almost -3 tier number is 1.5 standard deviations below league average based on current team rosters. This is around bottom of MLB. Whether it’s at the bottom or third from the bottom doesn’t matter. This relief staff is bad.
WAS Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 417 |
| XXXXX | -0.67 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF | 550 |
| +005+ | 7.27 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 503 |
| +040+ | 4.35 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 519 |
| +081+ | 2.88 | Howie_Kendrick_WAS | 1B-2B-3B | 295 |
| XXXXX | -1.22 | Brian_Dozier_WAS | 2B | 429 |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Victor_Robles_WAS | CF-RF | 488 |
| XXXXX | -1.28 | Yan_Gomes_WAS | CR | 269 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Joe_Ross_WAS | none | 0 |
| Total | 12.95 | TIER=1.73 |
Three guys in the top 100 and almost Tier 2.00 lineup. Tier 2 is one complete standard deviation above league average based on current team rosters.
Game starts in a few hours. Almost have a complete historical roster dataset complete which will allow handicapping of past playoff games. Handicapping old playoff series might be fun as we approach the 2019 playoff season. Until then ….