Cubs Nationals Matchup

Cubs Nationals play again this weekend at Wrigley.  Cubs got shellacked yesterday.  Let’s take a look at this Nationals team.

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 55 48 6.6 28.9 8.4 20190727
WAS 71 57 52.9 29.3 15.1 20190824

In the last 4 weeks WAS went 16-9 gaining 7 games which is a very good run.  These wins are almost entirely due to hitting as their BAT soared.  UR also way up.  It will be difficult for them to overtake Atlanta but these things have happened before to teams in September.  Let’s look at what tonight’s game looks like.

WAS CHN 08_24_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 14 0.417 0.501 X 1.89 -1.38 -2.82
CHN 10 0.600 0.499 X 0.29 0.97 1.25

Vegas has Cubs favored by almost 60% according to Vegas and Tier Combo simulation has this game almost even steven.  EV is still turned off for now.   WAS has a much better lineup than Cubs which we saw evidence with BAT in their team status.  Cubs have better pitching and surprisingly better relief.  WAS has better WAA (i.e. win/loss record).

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Joe_Ross_WAS -0.97 0.406 46.0 -1.38
Jose_Quintana_CHN 2.21 0.570 142.7 0.97

Quintana is a better pitcher than Ross this season.  If the Cubs knock out Ross early and get into WAS poor relief this game could get interesting.

WAS Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+022+ 5.23 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 161.7
+063+ 3.49 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 165.0
+120+ 2.29 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 130.0
XXXXX 0.42 Erick_Fedde_WAS 71.0
XXXXX -0.99 Joe_Ross_WAS 46.0
Total 10.44 0.582

Three top starters which can easily get a team through a 6 game divisional series.  Ross is their worst starter.  Strasburg or Corbin will most likely pitch a wild card game if it comes to that.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.21 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 57.3
XXXXX 0.48 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 12.3
XXXXX 0.34 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 32.7
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 55.7
XXXXX -0.42 Wander_Suero_WAS 55.3
XXXXX -1.03 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 32.0
-117- -1.95 Matt_Grace_WAS 46.7
-102- -2.08 Kyle_McGowin_WAS 16.0
Total -2.66 TIER=-2.82

Relief is WAS Achilles heel as it was in past seasons.  Although we max out at +4 and -4 now,  an almost -3 tier number is 1.5 standard deviations below league average based on current team rosters.  This is around bottom of MLB.  Whether it’s at the bottom or third from the bottom doesn’t matter.  This relief staff is bad.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.78 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 417
XXXXX -0.67 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 550
+005+ 7.27 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 503
+040+ 4.35 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 519
+081+ 2.88 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 295
XXXXX -1.22 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 429
XXXXX 0.84 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 488
XXXXX -1.28 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 269
XXXXX 0.00 Joe_Ross_WAS none 0
Total 12.95 TIER=1.73

Three guys in the top 100 and almost Tier 2.00 lineup.  Tier 2 is one complete standard deviation above league average based on current team rosters.

Game starts in a few hours.  Almost have a complete historical roster dataset complete which will allow handicapping of past playoff games.  Handicapping old playoff series might be fun as we approach the 2019 playoff season.   Until then ….