Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs Mets start another series tonight in New York.  Let’s see what the Mets have been up to since the Cubs last saw them 9 weeks ago.

NYN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYN 37 42 6.8 -29.1 -4.3 20190625
NYN 67 63 -9.3 24.3 6.0 20190827

Nine weeks ago Mets were -5 and today they’re +4 gaining 9 games or almost 1 game per week.  A six month baseball season has 24 weeks.  A team winning +1 per week ends the season +24 or 94 – 68.  If Mets keep this pace the next 5 weeks they’ll end this season at +8 or +10 ( a season can’t end on an odd real team WAA ).

During these 9 weeks Mets BAT went down a little but their PITCH soared as well as their UR.  Mets are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot and right behind the Cubs.  Teams that want to make it past the first round of playoffs usually excel in September.

CHN NYN 08_27_7:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 8 0.524 0.482 92 -0.31 -0.33 1.23
NYN 4 0.500 0.518 104 0.37 2.58 -1.98

Mets have a very good starter pitching tonight and a slightly better lineup based on each team’s last game.  Cubs have better relief.  Cubs lineup last game was slightly under water.  Mets’ was slightly above water.

At 0.524/0.500 in favor of Cubs, Vegas is taking a we don’t know attitude to this game.  TC Sim based on tier numbers from L, S, and R columns  has this game close to even steven as well.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.44 0.514 144.3 -0.33
Marcus_Stroman_TOT 4.43 0.638 144.3 2.58

Darvish had his ups and downs  but still above water.  Stroman is pitching like his 2017 season.

NYN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 7.37 Jacob_deGrom_NYN 162.0
+039+ 4.43 Marcus_Stroman_NYN 144.3
+081+ 2.96 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN 160.0
XXXXX 1.36 Steven_Matz_NYN 128.7
XXXXX 0.17 Zack_Wheeler_NYN 155.3
Total 16.29 0.598

Three starters in top 100.  This is a pitching staff that could breeze through NLDS — except they’ll probably have to face the Dodgers if it comes to that.

NYN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+150+ 2.02 Seth_Lugo_NYN 63.0
XXXXX 1.51 Justin_Wilson_NYN 28.3
XXXXX 0.42 Paul_Sewald_NYN 12.0
XXXXX 0.15 Luis_Avilan_NYN 25.3
XXXXX -0.13 Chris_Mazza_NYN 8.7
XXXXX -1.18 Edwin_Diaz_NYN 48.7
-169- -1.57 Jeurys_Familia_NYN 45.0
-123- -1.87 Brad_Brach_NYN 45.7
Total -0.65 TIER=-1.98

This is an under water relief staff which contradicts PITCH in team status.  The excellent starting rotation above compensates.  At 63 IP Seth Lugo  has put in the most work this season and he’s well above water ranked in top 200.  Justin Wilson, former Cub pitching well also.  Cubs need to knock a starter out in 6th inning or go extra innings to get deep into this staff.  Looks like Mets acquired Brad Brach.  Let’s see how he’s been pitching since being traded.

Brad_Brach_TOT PITCH

Date Rank WAA
0813 -174- -1.45
0817 -138- -1.62
0821 -171- -1.49
0825 -123- -1.87
0827 -123- -1.87

Brach went -0.42 with the Mets so far.

NYN Lineup 08252019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.11 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 525
XXXXX 1.39 Jeff_McNeil_NYN LF-RF-2B-3B 444
+040+ 4.49 Pete_Alonso_NYN 1B 548
+160+ 2.08 Michael_Conforto_NYN RF-CF 515
XXXXX 0.29 J.D._Davis_NYN LF-3B 352
XXXXX -0.29 Todd_Frazier_NYN 3B 403
XXXXX -0.82 Juan_Lagares_NYN CF 232
XXXXX 0.00 Rene_Rivera_NYN none 0
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Matz_NYN none 0
Total 6.03 TIER=0.37

As expected based on their close to average BAT in team status, this is a close to average lineup.  Average team lineup based on current rosters of 30 MLB teams is now +4.36 WAA.

Cubs are up on the Mets in Wild Card and behind the Cardinals in NL Central.  If Mets sweep this series they will overtake Cubs in Wild Card race too.

Not much more to say about this.  Historical playoff handicapping based upon estimated rosters coming soon.  Next Cubs status coming near the end of month 5 of this 2019 MLB season.   Until then ….