Cubs Brewers Matchup

Cubs Brewers start a weekend series today.  Let’s see what the Brewers have been up to since 4 weeks ago when the Cubs last played them.

MIL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIL 57 53 9.3 -30.1 5.8 20190802
MIL 68 65 -13.6 -27.3 5.2 20190830

Brewers went from +4 to +3 losing a game.  BAT tanked and PITCH remained around the same as well as Unearned Runs above average (UR).

MIL CHN 08_30_2:20_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIL 3 0.444 0.449 101 -0.71 -0.32 -0.75
CHN 11 0.574 0.551 96 -0.24 0.61 1.41

Cubs have better real team WAA, around the same under water lineup, betters starter and much better relief.  Tier numbers in L, S, and R columns get fed into simulation and the result aligns closely with Vegas.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Chase_Anderson_MIL 0.42 0.517 112.0 -0.32
Jose_Quintana_CHN 1.70 0.552 146.7 0.61

Quintana is a better starter than Anderson this season.

MIL Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+155+ 1.99 Adrian_Houser_MIL 87.0
+166+ 1.87 Zach_Davies_MIL 131.7
XXXXX 0.42 Chase_Anderson_MIL 112.0
XXXXX 0.25 Gio_Gonzalez_MIL 64.3
XXXXX -0.08 Jordan_Lyles_MIL 114.7
Total 4.45 0.539

This is a slightly above average starting rotation.  Starting rotations are not tiered.  Individual starters are tiered for use in simulation.

MIL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+124+ 2.29 Josh_Hader_MIL 59.7
XXXXX 1.36 Junior_Guerra_MIL 71.0
XXXXX 0.78 Alex_Claudio_MIL 53.3
XXXXX 0.08 Ray_Black_MIL 6.7
XXXXX 0 Devin_Williams 8.0
XXXXX -0.27 Jay_Jackson_MIL 19.3
XXXXX -0.32 Matt_Albers_MIL 55.0
-158- -1.70 Drew_Pomeranz_MIL 90.0
Total 2.22 TIER=-0.75

This is an under water relief staff.  Hader ranked in top 200 and ranked top 100 for much of this season.

MIL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-049- -2.75 Lorenzo_Cain_MIL CF 536
+197+ 1.64 Keston_Hiura_MIL 2B 292
+020+ 5.33 Christian_Yelich_MIL RF 532
XXXXX 0.80 Ryan_Braun_MIL LF 435
XXXXX -0.53 Yasmani_Grandal_MIL CR-1B 511
XXXXX -0.88 Manny_Pina_MIL CR 153
XXXXX -1.05 Hernan_Perez_MIL 2B-SS 188
-136- -1.81 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 458
XXXXX 0.00 Chase_Anderson_MIL none 0
Total 0.75 TIER=-0.71

This is a below average lineup based on league averages using current rosters.  Yelich having another stellar year.  Last season he gained +3.5 WAA in September to win MVP.

That is all for now.  End of month 5 Cubs status and playoff horse race coming next.  Until then ….