Cubs Brewers start a weekend series today. Let’s see what the Brewers have been up to since 4 weeks ago when the Cubs last played them.
MIL Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 57 | 53 | 9.3 | -30.1 | 5.8 | 20190802 |
| MIL | 68 | 65 | -13.6 | -27.3 | 5.2 | 20190830 |
Brewers went from +4 to +3 losing a game. BAT tanked and PITCH remained around the same as well as Unearned Runs above average (UR).
MIL CHN 08_30_2:20_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 3 | 0.444 | 0.449 | 101 | -0.71 | -0.32 | -0.75 |
| CHN | 11 | 0.574 | 0.551 | 96 | -0.24 | 0.61 | 1.41 |
Cubs have better real team WAA, around the same under water lineup, betters starter and much better relief. Tier numbers in L, S, and R columns get fed into simulation and the result aligns closely with Vegas.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase_Anderson_MIL | 0.42 | 0.517 | 112.0 | -0.32 |
| Jose_Quintana_CHN | 1.70 | 0.552 | 146.7 | 0.61 |
Quintana is a better starter than Anderson this season.
MIL Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +155+ | 1.99 | Adrian_Houser_MIL | 87.0 | |
| +166+ | 1.87 | Zach_Davies_MIL | 131.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Chase_Anderson_MIL | 112.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Gio_Gonzalez_MIL | 64.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Jordan_Lyles_MIL | 114.7 | |
| Total | 4.45 | 0.539 |
This is a slightly above average starting rotation. Starting rotations are not tiered. Individual starters are tiered for use in simulation.
MIL Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +124+ | 2.29 | Josh_Hader_MIL | 59.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.36 | Junior_Guerra_MIL | 71.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.78 | Alex_Claudio_MIL | 53.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Ray_Black_MIL | 6.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0 | Devin_Williams | 8.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | Jay_Jackson_MIL | 19.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | Matt_Albers_MIL | 55.0 | |
| -158- | -1.70 | Drew_Pomeranz_MIL | 90.0 | |
| Total | 2.22 | TIER=-0.75 |
This is an under water relief staff. Hader ranked in top 200 and ranked top 100 for much of this season.
MIL Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -049- | -2.75 | Lorenzo_Cain_MIL | CF | 536 |
| +197+ | 1.64 | Keston_Hiura_MIL | 2B | 292 |
| +020+ | 5.33 | Christian_Yelich_MIL | RF | 532 |
| XXXXX | 0.80 | Ryan_Braun_MIL | LF | 435 |
| XXXXX | -0.53 | Yasmani_Grandal_MIL | CR-1B | 511 |
| XXXXX | -0.88 | Manny_Pina_MIL | CR | 153 |
| XXXXX | -1.05 | Hernan_Perez_MIL | 2B-SS | 188 |
| -136- | -1.81 | Orlando_Arcia_MIL | SS | 458 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Chase_Anderson_MIL | none | 0 |
| Total | 0.75 | TIER=-0.71 |
This is a below average lineup based on league averages using current rosters. Yelich having another stellar year. Last season he gained +3.5 WAA in September to win MVP.
That is all for now. End of month 5 Cubs status and playoff horse race coming next. Until then ….