Cubs Status End of Month 5

Since we’re now at the end of month 5 of a 6 month season let’s do a Cubs status.

CHN Team Status

Team W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 64 58 8.8 52.9 2.5 20190817
CHN 73 61 11.5 61.8 4.6 20190831

In the last 2 weeks since we last did this Cubs went 9-3 gaining 6 games.  BAT, PITCH and UR all up.

NL Central 20190831

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 73 59 -47.6 95.9 10.6
CHN 73 61 11.5 61.8 4.6
MIL 68 66 -18.1 -28.1 4.6
CIN 63 70 -48.6 53.8 16.6
PIT 58 77 -12.6 -75.1 -18.4

Cubs 1 game behind the Cardinals.  Cardinals pitching continues to improve according to PITCH.

CHN 5 Year Split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150831 18 -15.2 40.2 -2.9
20160831 38 73.4 136.9 7.8
20170831 13 52.0 47.6 -8.5
20180831 24 41.9 57.5 9.6
20190831 12 11.5 61.8 4.6

This table shows status for this season and the last four.  Team 2019 has fallen behind  rival Team 2017.  Team 2017 finishes the next month at +22.  Cubs will be in good shape if they can keep pace with that.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups -0.26
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.09
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.99
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.01
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.22
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.99
Relief 1.61

These are Tier assignments for Lineups, Starters, and Relief.  Hendricks at Tier 2.01 is one complete standard deviation above the mean for starters according to current rosters of 30 MLB teams.  Cubs lineup hovering around league average which should be expected based upon their BAT in team status.  Willson Contreras appears to be on IL so his numbers don’t coung.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+060+ 3.74 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 148.0
+123+ 2.31 Cole_Hamels_CHN 120.7
+121+ 2.31 Jose_Quintana_CHN 152.3
XXXXX 1.05 Yu_Darvish_CHN 152.3
XXXXX 0.61 Jon_Lester_CHN 144.3
Total 10.02 0.563

This is an above average starting rotation.  No pitcher is under water.  Lester has had a few bad outings which has happened to him in past seasons.  He  currently ranks #7 among all MLB players during playoff season which will matter if the Cubs make it this season.  Jose Quintana had a very good August.

Jose Quintana CHN

YEAR Rank WAA
0801 XXXXX 0.15
0805 XXXXX 0.34
0809 XXXXX 0.82
0813 XXXXX 0.92
0817 XXXXX 1.41
0821 +129+ 2.23
0825 +186+ 1.72
0829 +184+ 1.72
0831 +121+ 2.31

That’s over a +2 rise in one month which is Cy Young award numbers if a pitcher can keep this pace for 6 months straight.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+105+ 2.54 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 51.7
+187+ 1.74 Steve_Cishek_CHN 56.0
+194+ 1.66 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 49.3
XXXXX 0.86 David_Phelps_CHN 26.0
XXXXX 0.69 Rowan_Wick_CHN 22.3
XXXXX 0.46 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 63.7
XXXXX 0.04 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 18.3
XXXXX -0.94 Pedro_Strop_CHN 32.7
Total 7.05 Tier=1.61

Relief had some pretty bad outings this season but overall this staff is above water.  Kimbrel climbed out of a hole he pitched in earlier this season.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+064+ 3.61 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+083+ 3.00 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+153+ 2.06 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX 1.30 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.69 Ian_Happ_CHN LF
XXXXX 0.27 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX 0.10 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX -0.48 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX -0.86 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.11 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.24 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
XXXXX -1.30 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
Total 6.04 0.524

Cubs hitters over all slightly above season average and usually field around average lineup according to current rosters.  Baez, Rizzo, Bryant compensate for Kemp, Lucroy, and Heyward.  Since we’re on Castellanos watch ever since he cam over with a < -2.00 WAA but decent game stats, let’s look at his progress.

Nicholas Castellanos CHN

YEAR Rank WAA
0805 -133- -2.27
0809 XXXXX -1.39
0813 XXXXX -1.53
0817 XXXXX -1.68
0821 XXXXX -1.55
0825 XXXXX -0.99
0829 XXXXX -1.18
0831 XXXXX -0.48

Castellanos came to the Cubs bringing -2.27 WAA with him;  all losses attributed to DET.  In one month he gained around +1.8 which is an MVP caliber number.  But like golf you can’t mulligan the front 9 because you finished great the last 6.  His contribution to the Cubs has made an impact.

Since this team is so close to Cubs 2017 let’s take a look at the playoff horse race on this day in 2017.  This model now has estimated rosters for day in the historical dataset.

Playoff Horse Race 8-31-2017

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
WAS 29 37.7 15.5 20.5 1.7 4.5
ARI 18 35.7 13.4 16.1 6.2 -14.5
NYA 9 32.8 14.2 5.6 13.1 -8.5
CLE 20 31.1 8.7 11.6 10.7 16.5
LAN 50 27.6 11.4 7.3 8.9 20.5
CHN 13 27.2 12.1 6.4 8.6 -8.5
HOU 27 26.0 16.6 9.0 0.4 12.5
BOS 18 22.9 2.6 8.3 12.0 -5.5
COL 11 22.8 17.8 1.5 3.4 19.5
SLN 1 21.8 7.9 9.7 4.2 -5.5
MIL 6 20.9 4.2 7.4 9.4 -3.5
TBA -1 8.4 -1.1 1.7 7.7 -0.5
BAL 2 7.0 12.9 -17.6 11.7 10.5
MIN 7 1.5 2.1 -1.8 1.2 -5.5
ANA 4 -0.6 -3.6 -1.5 4.5 17.5

This table type lists the top 15 MLB sorted by wins minus losses, real WAA, then sorts those teams according to Total WAA from this data model.  These tables take a roster snapshot so injured don’t get counted towards their team’s Total.  The actual true playoff horse race starts with this table using NLDS and ALDS official rosters.  We’ll do  historical post season rankings throughout next month.  HOU defeats LAN in 2017 World Series.

Cubs were upper middle of the pack in value and they knock off top ranked WAS in NLDS after streaking in September.  Tomorrow’s end of month 5 playoff horse race will show Cubs in lower middle of pack.  Until then ….