Since we’re now at the end of month 5 of a 6 month season let’s do a Cubs status.
CHN Team Status
| Team | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 64 | 58 | 8.8 | 52.9 | 2.5 | 20190817 |
| CHN | 73 | 61 | 11.5 | 61.8 | 4.6 | 20190831 |
In the last 2 weeks since we last did this Cubs went 9-3 gaining 6 games. BAT, PITCH and UR all up.
NL Central 20190831
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 73 | 59 | -47.6 | 95.9 | 10.6 | |
| CHN | 73 | 61 | 11.5 | 61.8 | 4.6 | |
| MIL | 68 | 66 | -18.1 | -28.1 | 4.6 | |
| CIN | 63 | 70 | -48.6 | 53.8 | 16.6 | |
| PIT | 58 | 77 | -12.6 | -75.1 | -18.4 |
Cubs 1 game behind the Cardinals. Cardinals pitching continues to improve according to PITCH.
CHN 5 Year Split
| Date | WAA | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20150831 | 18 | -15.2 | 40.2 | -2.9 | |
| 20160831 | 38 | 73.4 | 136.9 | 7.8 | |
| 20170831 | 13 | 52.0 | 47.6 | -8.5 | |
| 20180831 | 24 | 41.9 | 57.5 | 9.6 | |
| 20190831 | 12 | 11.5 | 61.8 | 4.6 |
This table shows status for this season and the last four. Team 2019 has fallen behind rival Team 2017. Team 2017 finishes the next month at +22. Cubs will be in good shape if they can keep pace with that.
CHN Tiers
| Type | Name_TeamID | Tier # |
|---|---|---|
| Lineups | — | -0.26 |
| SP | Yu_Darvish_CHN | 0.09 |
| SP | Cole_Hamels_CHN | 0.99 |
| SP | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 2.01 |
| SP | Jon_Lester_CHN | -0.22 |
| SP | Jose_Quintana_CHN | 0.99 |
| Relief | — | 1.61 |
These are Tier assignments for Lineups, Starters, and Relief. Hendricks at Tier 2.01 is one complete standard deviation above the mean for starters according to current rosters of 30 MLB teams. Cubs lineup hovering around league average which should be expected based upon their BAT in team status. Willson Contreras appears to be on IL so his numbers don’t coung.
CHN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +060+ | 3.74 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 148.0 | |
| +123+ | 2.31 | Cole_Hamels_CHN | 120.7 | |
| +121+ | 2.31 | Jose_Quintana_CHN | 152.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Yu_Darvish_CHN | 152.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.61 | Jon_Lester_CHN | 144.3 | |
| Total | 10.02 | 0.563 |
This is an above average starting rotation. No pitcher is under water. Lester has had a few bad outings which has happened to him in past seasons. He currently ranks #7 among all MLB players during playoff season which will matter if the Cubs make it this season. Jose Quintana had a very good August.
Jose Quintana CHN
| YEAR | Rank | WAA |
|---|---|---|
| 0801 | XXXXX | 0.15 |
| 0805 | XXXXX | 0.34 |
| 0809 | XXXXX | 0.82 |
| 0813 | XXXXX | 0.92 |
| 0817 | XXXXX | 1.41 |
| 0821 | +129+ | 2.23 |
| 0825 | +186+ | 1.72 |
| 0829 | +184+ | 1.72 |
| 0831 | +121+ | 2.31 |
That’s over a +2 rise in one month which is Cy Young award numbers if a pitcher can keep this pace for 6 months straight.
CHN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +105+ | 2.54 | Brandon_Kintzler_CHN | 51.7 | |
| +187+ | 1.74 | Steve_Cishek_CHN | 56.0 | |
| +194+ | 1.66 | Kyle_Ryan_CHN | 49.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.86 | David_Phelps_CHN | 26.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Rowan_Wick_CHN | 22.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.46 | Tyler_Chatwood_CHN | 63.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Craig_Kimbrel_CHN | 18.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.94 | Pedro_Strop_CHN | 32.7 | |
| Total | 7.05 | Tier=1.61 |
Relief had some pretty bad outings this season but overall this staff is above water. Kimbrel climbed out of a hole he pitched in earlier this season.
CHN Hitters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +064+ | 3.61 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | |
| +083+ | 3.00 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | |
| +153+ | 2.06 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B-RF-LF | |
| XXXXX | 1.30 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Ian_Happ_CHN | LF | |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | Victor_Caratini_CHN | CR-1B | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | David_Bote_CHN | 3B-2B | |
| XXXXX | -0.48 | Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN | RF-DH | |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Addison_Russell_CHN | 2B-SS | |
| XXXXX | -1.11 | Tony_Kemp_CHN | 2B-LF-CF | |
| XXXXX | -1.24 | Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN | CR | |
| XXXXX | -1.30 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF-CF | |
| Total | 6.04 | 0.524 |
Cubs hitters over all slightly above season average and usually field around average lineup according to current rosters. Baez, Rizzo, Bryant compensate for Kemp, Lucroy, and Heyward. Since we’re on Castellanos watch ever since he cam over with a < -2.00 WAA but decent game stats, let’s look at his progress.
Nicholas Castellanos CHN
| YEAR | Rank | WAA |
|---|---|---|
| 0805 | -133- | -2.27 |
| 0809 | XXXXX | -1.39 |
| 0813 | XXXXX | -1.53 |
| 0817 | XXXXX | -1.68 |
| 0821 | XXXXX | -1.55 |
| 0825 | XXXXX | -0.99 |
| 0829 | XXXXX | -1.18 |
| 0831 | XXXXX | -0.48 |
Castellanos came to the Cubs bringing -2.27 WAA with him; all losses attributed to DET. In one month he gained around +1.8 which is an MVP caliber number. But like golf you can’t mulligan the front 9 because you finished great the last 6. His contribution to the Cubs has made an impact.
Since this team is so close to Cubs 2017 let’s take a look at the playoff horse race on this day in 2017. This model now has estimated rosters for day in the historical dataset.
Playoff Horse Race 8-31-2017
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 29 | 37.7 | 15.5 | 20.5 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| ARI | 18 | 35.7 | 13.4 | 16.1 | 6.2 | -14.5 |
| NYA | 9 | 32.8 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 13.1 | -8.5 |
| CLE | 20 | 31.1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 16.5 |
| LAN | 50 | 27.6 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 20.5 |
| CHN | 13 | 27.2 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | -8.5 |
| HOU | 27 | 26.0 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 12.5 |
| BOS | 18 | 22.9 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 12.0 | -5.5 |
| COL | 11 | 22.8 | 17.8 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 19.5 |
| SLN | 1 | 21.8 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 4.2 | -5.5 |
| MIL | 6 | 20.9 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | -3.5 |
| TBA | -1 | 8.4 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 7.7 | -0.5 |
| BAL | 2 | 7.0 | 12.9 | -17.6 | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| MIN | 7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -1.8 | 1.2 | -5.5 |
| ANA | 4 | -0.6 | -3.6 | -1.5 | 4.5 | 17.5 |
This table type lists the top 15 MLB sorted by wins minus losses, real WAA, then sorts those teams according to Total WAA from this data model. These tables take a roster snapshot so injured don’t get counted towards their team’s Total. The actual true playoff horse race starts with this table using NLDS and ALDS official rosters. We’ll do historical post season rankings throughout next month. HOU defeats LAN in 2017 World Series.
Cubs were upper middle of the pack in value and they knock off top ranked WAS in NLDS after streaking in September. Tomorrow’s end of month 5 playoff horse race will show Cubs in lower middle of pack. Until then ….