Cubs Padres Matchup

Cubs Padres start a series today.  Let’s look at this Padres team.

SDN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SDN 55 62 -38.7 2.1 3.7 20190812
SDN 66 76 -76.3 9.8 3.3 20190909

In the last 4 weeks BAT tanked even further and Padres went from -7 to -10.  Losing 3 games a month is par for the course for last place teams.  That Manny Machado acquisition hasn’t helped their hitting.

CHN SDN 09_09_10:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 10 0.583 0.608 104 -0.25 2.32 2.16
SDN -10 0.435 0.392 90 -1.90 -0.52 2.39

Cubs lead in lineup and starter and about tied with relief.  Vegas and TC Sim are pretty much in agreement on this game.  Vegas has the Cubs 58% , TC Sim at around 61% favorites to win.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 4.22 0.623 154.0 2.32
Cal_Quantrill_SDN 0.06 0.503 90.7 -0.52

Hendricks a top notch pitcher but well below max tier of 4.00.

SDN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+085+ 3.15 Chris_Paddack_SDN 129.7
+114+ 2.60 Joey_Lucchesi_SDN 150.0
XXXXX 0.84 Dinelson_Lamet_SDN 57.0
XXXXX 0.55 Eric_Lauer_SDN 136.7
XXXXX 0.04 Cal_Quantrill_SDN 90.7
Total 7.18 0.557

San Diego has a decent starting rotation which is unusual based on past years for them.

SDN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+044+ 4.49 Kirby_Yates_SDN 57.7
+181+ 1.89 Craig_Stammen_SDN 74.7
+200+ 1.70 Luis_Perdomo_SDN 63.0
XXXXX 1.43 Andres_Munoz_SDN 21.3
XXXXX 0.84 Michel_Baez_SDN 19.7
XXXXX 0.36 David_Bednar_SDN 3.3
XXXXX 0.23 Ronald_Bolanos_SDN 6.0
XXXXX -0.32 Eric_Yardley_SDN 3.0
XXXXX -0.50 Trey_Wingenter_SDN 46.3
XXXXX -0.53 Matt_Strahm_SDN 107.0
XXXXX -0.76 Javy_Guerra_SDN 0.7
XXXXX -0.78 Robbie_Erlin_SDN 49.7
-070- -2.50 Gerardo_Reyes_SDN 16.0
-068- -2.52 Nick_Margevicius_SDN 55.0
Total 3.03 TIER=2.39

Their tier number for relief is high because, for now, this model only takes the top 8 relievers.  This raises relief league average due to expanded rosters.  New guys come in at 0 pushing down negative relievers.  Right now league average for relief is at +5.8.  At the end of August it was around +3.6.  They have three relievers ranked with Kirby Yates in the top 50.

SDN Lineup 9/8/1019

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.46 Greg_Garcia_SDN 2B-3B 304
XXXXX -0.34 Nick_Martini_SDN BAT 36
XXXXX -0.04 Manny_Machado_SDN 3B-SS 583
XXXXX 0.82 Eric_Hosmer_SDN 1B 586
XXXXX -1.24 Wil_Myers_SDN LF-CF 418
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_Naylor_SDN LF-RF 219
-074- -2.27 Austin_Hedges_SDN CR 305
XXXXX -1.05 Luis_Urias_SDN 2B-SS 167
XXXXX 0.00 Eric_Lauer_SDN none 0
Total -4.94 TIER=-1.90

We don’t have to worry much about expanded rosters with lineups because they are what they are.  SDN has close to a -2 tier lineup (their lineup from yesterday), almost a complete standard deviation below league average.  This should be expected from their well below average BAT in team status based on seasonal runs scored.

That is all for now.  A new Cubs status coming soon as they move sideways into the end of a season.  Sideways is better than tanking but it usually does not get a team into playoff season.  Until then ….