Cubs Padres start a series today. Let’s look at this Padres team.
SDN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDN | 55 | 62 | -38.7 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 20190812 |
| SDN | 66 | 76 | -76.3 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 20190909 |
In the last 4 weeks BAT tanked even further and Padres went from -7 to -10. Losing 3 games a month is par for the course for last place teams. That Manny Machado acquisition hasn’t helped their hitting.
CHN SDN 09_09_10:10_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 10 | 0.583 | 0.608 | 104 | -0.25 | 2.32 | 2.16 |
| SDN | -10 | 0.435 | 0.392 | 90 | -1.90 | -0.52 | 2.39 |
Cubs lead in lineup and starter and about tied with relief. Vegas and TC Sim are pretty much in agreement on this game. Vegas has the Cubs 58% , TC Sim at around 61% favorites to win.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 4.22 | 0.623 | 154.0 | 2.32 |
| Cal_Quantrill_SDN | 0.06 | 0.503 | 90.7 | -0.52 |
Hendricks a top notch pitcher but well below max tier of 4.00.
SDN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +085+ | 3.15 | Chris_Paddack_SDN | 129.7 | |
| +114+ | 2.60 | Joey_Lucchesi_SDN | 150.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Dinelson_Lamet_SDN | 57.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Eric_Lauer_SDN | 136.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Cal_Quantrill_SDN | 90.7 | |
| Total | 7.18 | 0.557 |
San Diego has a decent starting rotation which is unusual based on past years for them.
SDN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +044+ | 4.49 | Kirby_Yates_SDN | 57.7 | |
| +181+ | 1.89 | Craig_Stammen_SDN | 74.7 | |
| +200+ | 1.70 | Luis_Perdomo_SDN | 63.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.43 | Andres_Munoz_SDN | 21.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Michel_Baez_SDN | 19.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | David_Bednar_SDN | 3.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Ronald_Bolanos_SDN | 6.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | Eric_Yardley_SDN | 3.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Trey_Wingenter_SDN | 46.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.53 | Matt_Strahm_SDN | 107.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Javy_Guerra_SDN | 0.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.78 | Robbie_Erlin_SDN | 49.7 | |
| -070- | -2.50 | Gerardo_Reyes_SDN | 16.0 | |
| -068- | -2.52 | Nick_Margevicius_SDN | 55.0 | |
| Total | 3.03 | TIER=2.39 |
Their tier number for relief is high because, for now, this model only takes the top 8 relievers. This raises relief league average due to expanded rosters. New guys come in at 0 pushing down negative relievers. Right now league average for relief is at +5.8. At the end of August it was around +3.6. They have three relievers ranked with Kirby Yates in the top 50.
SDN Lineup 9/8/1019
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.46 | Greg_Garcia_SDN | 2B-3B | 304 |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Nick_Martini_SDN | BAT | 36 |
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Manny_Machado_SDN | 3B-SS | 583 |
| XXXXX | 0.82 | Eric_Hosmer_SDN | 1B | 586 |
| XXXXX | -1.24 | Wil_Myers_SDN | LF-CF | 418 |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Josh_Naylor_SDN | LF-RF | 219 |
| -074- | -2.27 | Austin_Hedges_SDN | CR | 305 |
| XXXXX | -1.05 | Luis_Urias_SDN | 2B-SS | 167 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Eric_Lauer_SDN | none | 0 |
| Total | -4.94 | TIER=-1.90 |
We don’t have to worry much about expanded rosters with lineups because they are what they are. SDN has close to a -2 tier lineup (their lineup from yesterday), almost a complete standard deviation below league average. This should be expected from their well below average BAT in team status based on seasonal runs scored.
That is all for now. A new Cubs status coming soon as they move sideways into the end of a season. Sideways is better than tanking but it usually does not get a team into playoff season. Until then ….