We’re 1/3 through the last 1/6 of the 2019 season which means we’re 16/18 or 7/8 done. Cubs still hanging on to the last Wild Card spot but are they done? Let’s do another Cubs Status and see.
CHN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 69 | 61 | 3.7 | 55.3 | 4.0 | 20190827 |
| CHN | 77 | 66 | 8.3 | 71.0 | 4.4 | 20190910 |
In the last two weeks they went from +8 to +11 gaining 3 games which is pretty good. PITCH doing very well while BAT, based on seasonal runs scored, is hovering around league average. Seasonal numbers are one set, who currently represents each team as of now is another set. Let’s drill down into this current team.
CHN 5 Year Split
| Date | WAA | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20150910 | 22 | -5.9 | 55.2 | -4.3 | |
| 20160910 | 39 | 60.1 | 152.6 | 5.7 | |
| 20170910 | 11 | 37.3 | 37.9 | -6.7 | |
| 20180910 | 23 | 42.0 | 56.9 | 6.1 | |
| 20190910 | 11 | 8.3 | 71.0 | 4.4 |
This table shows Cubs on this day this year and the last four. Team 2019 still tied with Team 2017 as of 9/10. Since we’re from the future we know that team 2017 ends the season +22 so they really pick up steam starting now. That momentum helped that team beat the best team in MLB at the time according to this data model.
CHN Tiers
| Type | Name_TeamID | Tier # |
|---|---|---|
| Lineup | — | -0.57 |
| SP | Yu_Darvish_CHN | 0.54 |
| SP | Cole_Hamels_CHN | 0.71 |
| SP | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 2.31 |
| SP | Jon_Lester_CHN | -0.44 |
| SP | Jose_Quintana_CHN | 0.83 |
| Relief | — | 2.16 |
This table shows tier numbers used in simulation for Lineup, Starter and Relief. Lineup based on yesterday is under water even though they scored a lot of runs.
CHN Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +042+ | 4.54 | Kyle_Hendricks_CHN | 159.7 | |
| +175+ | 1.97 | Jose_Quintana_CHN | 157.3 | |
| +190+ | 1.81 | Cole_Hamels_CHN | 130.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.55 | Yu_Darvish_CHN | 157.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.13 | Jon_Lester_CHN | 155.7 | |
| Total | 10.00 | 0.559 |
Hendricks putting up another solid year. He should look good in the 2017, 2018, 2019 three year split we’ll do at the end of this season. The rest of the rotation is OK. Lester is usually gold in playoff season — if the Cubs can get there. Not sure who Maddon pitches in the Wild Card game which most likely will be in Washington this year.
CHN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +113+ | 2.58 | Brandon_Kintzler_CHN | 54.0 | |
| +155+ | 2.08 | Steve_Cishek_CHN | 59.3 | |
| +176+ | 1.95 | Kyle_Ryan_CHN | 54.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Rowan_Wick_CHN | 26.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | David_Phelps_CHN | 28.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Tyler_Chatwood_CHN | 69.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.40 | Duane_Underwood_CHN | 5.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Alec_Mills_CHN | 21.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Danny_Hultzen_CHN | 1.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Pedro_Strop_CHN | 35.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.80 | Adbert_Alzolay_CHN | 12.3 | |
| XXXXX | -1.01 | Brad_Wieck_CHN | 28.0 | |
| -120- | -2.10 | Derek_Holland_CHN | 80.3 | |
| Total | 5.68 | Tier=2.16 |
Expanded rosters bring in a lot of relievers. Tiering is done on top 8 but not sure if that’s accurate. Tiering Relief in general is a work in progress and in particular expanded rosters pose issues. More on this in off season simulation talk.
Cubs have 3 ranked relievers and mostly above average others. Strop having an off year. At Tier 2.16 they’re a little above one standard deviation above league average based on current rosters.
Sometimes anecdotal incidents like blown games which this squad had done frequently this season can distort ones’ view of the big picture. Cubs had a lot of relievers on IL this season.
CHN Hitters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +105+ | 2.75 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | |
| +147+ | 2.18 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | CR | |
| +169+ | 2.02 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | |
| XXXXX | 1.68 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B-RF-LF | |
| XXXXX | NA | Nico_Hoerner_CHN | BAT | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Ian_Happ_CHN | LF-2B-CF | |
| XXXXX | 0.15 | David_Bote_CHN | 3B-2B | |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN | RF-DH | |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | 2B-RF | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Victor_Caratini_CHN | CR-1B | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Robel_Garcia_CHN | 2B | |
| XXXXX | -1.28 | Tony_Kemp_CHN | 2B-LF-CF | |
| XXXXX | -1.34 | Daniel_Descalso_CHN | 2B | |
| -187- | -1.43 | Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN | CR | |
| XXXXX | -1.45 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF-CF | |
| -166- | -1.64 | Albert_Almora_CHN | CF | |
| Total | 1.72 | 0.506 |
Hitting has been average according to BAT in team status but teams usually need to win more than 90 games to make the playoffs. Winning 90 games is a real team WAA of +18. Playing average doesn’t cut it.
Baez is out for the season, Rizzo dropped out of top 100 which is low for him, and Bryant is now unranked, out of top 200 according to this data model. Since we’re still on Nick Castellanos watch …
Nicholas Castellanos CHN RF-DH
| Date | Rank | WAA |
|---|---|---|
| 0805 | -133- | -2.27 |
| 0809 | XXXXX | -1.39 |
| 0813 | XXXXX | -1.53 |
| 0817 | XXXXX | -1.68 |
| 0821 | XXXXX | -1.55 |
| 0825 | XXXXX | -0.99 |
| 0829 | XXXXX | -1.18 |
| 0902 | XXXXX | -0.69 |
| 0906 | XXXXX | -0.40 |
| 0910 | XXXXX | -0.08 |
Castellanos gained around +2.2 since joining Cubs a little over a month ago. This added value has carried the negative value incurred by the rest of Cubs bats keeping run production above water compare to the rest of the league. Without Castellanos’ contribution, the Cubs would be around +9 instead of +11. That’s how this model works.
NL 09-10-2019
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAN | 93 | 52 | 99.3 | 149.0 | -15.6 | |
| ATL | 90 | 55 | 82.3 | 32.1 | -12.6 | |
| SLN | 81 | 62 | -32.7 | 103.1 | 9.4 | |
| WAS | 79 | 63 | 61.3 | 37.2 | 15.4 | |
| CHN | 77 | 66 | 8.3 | 71.0 | 4.4 | |
| MIL | 75 | 68 | -16.7 | -14.9 | 7.4 | |
| ARI | 75 | 69 | 40.3 | 22.0 | 16.4 | |
| PHI | 74 | 69 | 1.8 | -14.8 | 5.4 | |
| NYN | 73 | 70 | -0.2 | 12.1 | 8.4 |
This is the NL Wild Card race right now. If Team 2019 finishes like Team 2017 Cubs could even overtake SLN for NL Central. If if and ands were pork and beans a lot more people would eat them.
That is all for now. New playoff horse race in a couple of days as well as historical playoff handicapping. Since we’re from the future we’ll know the results. Until then ….