Cubs Status 9/10/2019

We’re 1/3 through the last 1/6 of the 2019 season which means we’re 16/18 or 7/8 done.  Cubs still hanging on to the last Wild Card spot but are they done?  Let’s do another Cubs Status and see.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 69 61 3.7 55.3 4.0 20190827
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4 20190910

In the last two weeks they went from +8 to +11 gaining 3 games which is pretty good.  PITCH doing very well while BAT, based on seasonal runs scored, is hovering around league average.  Seasonal numbers are one set, who currently represents each team as of now is another set.  Let’s drill down into this current team.

CHN 5 Year Split

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150910 22 -5.9 55.2 -4.3
20160910 39 60.1 152.6 5.7
20170910 11 37.3 37.9 -6.7
20180910 23 42.0 56.9 6.1
20190910 11 8.3 71.0 4.4

This table shows Cubs on this day this year and the last four.  Team 2019 still tied with Team 2017 as of 9/10.  Since we’re from the future we know that team 2017 ends the season +22 so they really pick up steam starting now.  That momentum helped that team beat the best team in MLB at the time according to this data model.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineup -0.57
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.54
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.71
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.31
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.44
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN 0.83
Relief 2.16

This table shows tier numbers used in simulation for Lineup, Starter and Relief.  Lineup based on yesterday is under water even though they scored a lot of runs.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+042+ 4.54 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 159.7
+175+ 1.97 Jose_Quintana_CHN 157.3
+190+ 1.81 Cole_Hamels_CHN 130.0
XXXXX 1.55 Yu_Darvish_CHN 157.3
XXXXX 0.13 Jon_Lester_CHN 155.7
Total 10.00 0.559

Hendricks putting up another solid year.  He should look good in the 2017, 2018, 2019 three year split we’ll do at the end of this season.  The rest of the rotation is OK.  Lester is usually gold in playoff season — if the Cubs can get there.  Not sure who Maddon pitches in the Wild Card game which most likely will be in Washington this year.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+113+ 2.58 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 54.0
+155+ 2.08 Steve_Cishek_CHN 59.3
+176+ 1.95 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 54.0
XXXXX 1.07 Rowan_Wick_CHN 26.0
XXXXX 0.88 David_Phelps_CHN 28.0
XXXXX 0.84 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 69.3
XXXXX 0.40 Duane_Underwood_CHN 5.7
XXXXX 0.38 Alec_Mills_CHN 21.3
XXXXX 0.10 Danny_Hultzen_CHN 1.0
XXXXX -0.69 Pedro_Strop_CHN 35.0
XXXXX -0.80 Adbert_Alzolay_CHN 12.3
XXXXX -1.01 Brad_Wieck_CHN 28.0
-120- -2.10 Derek_Holland_CHN 80.3
Total 5.68 Tier=2.16

Expanded rosters bring in a lot of relievers.  Tiering is done on top 8 but not sure if that’s accurate.  Tiering Relief in general is a work in progress and in particular expanded rosters pose issues.  More on this in off season simulation talk.

Cubs have 3 ranked relievers and mostly above average others.  Strop having an off year.  At Tier 2.16 they’re a little above one standard deviation above league average based on current rosters.

Sometimes anecdotal incidents like blown games which this squad had done frequently this season can distort ones’ view of the big picture.  Cubs had a lot of relievers on IL  this season.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+105+ 2.75 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+147+ 2.18 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
+169+ 2.02 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
XXXXX 1.68 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
XXXXX NA Nico_Hoerner_CHN BAT
XXXXX 0.25 Ian_Happ_CHN LF-2B-CF
XXXXX 0.15 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX -0.08 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX -0.17 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF
XXXXX -0.21 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX -0.21 Robel_Garcia_CHN 2B
XXXXX -1.28 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.34 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
-187- -1.43 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
XXXXX -1.45 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
-166- -1.64 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
Total 1.72 0.506

Hitting has been average according to BAT in team status but teams usually need to win more than 90 games to make the playoffs.  Winning 90 games is a real team WAA of +18.   Playing average doesn’t cut it.

Baez is out for the season, Rizzo dropped out of top 100 which is low for him, and Bryant is now unranked, out of top 200 according to this data model.  Since we’re still on Nick Castellanos watch …

Nicholas Castellanos CHN RF-DH

Date Rank WAA
0805 -133- -2.27
0809 XXXXX -1.39
0813 XXXXX -1.53
0817 XXXXX -1.68
0821 XXXXX -1.55
0825 XXXXX -0.99
0829 XXXXX -1.18
0902 XXXXX -0.69
0906 XXXXX -0.40
0910 XXXXX -0.08

Castellanos gained around +2.2 since joining Cubs a little over a month ago.  This added  value has carried the negative value incurred by the rest of Cubs bats keeping  run production above water compare to the rest of the league.  Without Castellanos’ contribution, the Cubs would be around +9 instead of +11.  That’s how this model works.

NL 09-10-2019

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 93 52 99.3 149.0 -15.6
ATL 90 55 82.3 32.1 -12.6
SLN 81 62 -32.7 103.1 9.4
WAS 79 63 61.3 37.2 15.4
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4
MIL 75 68 -16.7 -14.9 7.4
ARI 75 69 40.3 22.0 16.4
PHI 74 69 1.8 -14.8 5.4
NYN 73 70 -0.2 12.1 8.4

This is the NL Wild Card race right now.  If Team 2019 finishes like Team 2017 Cubs could even overtake SLN for NL Central.  If if and ands were pork and beans a lot more people would eat them.

That is all for now.  New playoff horse race in a couple of days as well as historical playoff handicapping.  Since we’re from the future we’ll know the results.  Until then ….