Cubs Pirates Matchup

Cubs Pirates meet once again.  Let’s look at these Pirates.

PIT Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
PIT 50 70 -17.3 -50.9 -19.8 20190816
PIT 65 82 -6.9 -71.8 -21.4 20190913

Pirates went from -20 to -17 gaining 3 games in the last 4 weeks which is pretty good.  Their PITCH however tanked further which was compensated by an increase in BAT.   Unearned runs above average (UR) is horrible. Cubs may get some free runs this series.

PIT CHN 09_13_4:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -17 0.357 0.423 X -0.03 0.09 1.58
CHN 10 0.667 0.577 X 0.43 -0.45 1.99

TC Sim has the Pirates rated much higher than Vegas today even though both systems have Cubs heavily favored.  Vegas is paying $180 on a $100 PIT bet.  L, S, and R columns are all fairly equal.  Cubs have a big advantage in deltaWAA=27 , the difference in WAA between the two teams.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Steven_Brault_PIT 0.92 0.541 100.3 0.09
Jon_Lester_CHN 0.13 0.504 155.7 -0.45

Lester has had some bad outings this season.  Both pitchers hovering around league average.

PIT Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
XXXXX 0.92 Steven_Brault_PIT 100.3
XXXXX 0.10 James_Marvel_PIT 5.0
XXXXX 0.02 Joe_Musgrove_PIT 159.3
XXXXX -0.57 Dario_Agrazal_PIT 62.3
-106- -2.10 Trevor_Williams_PIT 131.3
-033- -3.34 Mitch_Keller_PIT 38.0
Total -4.97 0.455

Pirates running with 6 starters in expanded rosters.  This is a pretty terrible rotation which shouldn’t surprise based on PITCH in their team status.

PIT Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+053+ 4.03 Felipe_Vazquez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.72 Francisco_Liriano_PIT 66.0
XXXXX 1.24 Keone_Kela_PIT 25.7
XXXXX 1.09 Richard_Rodriguez_PIT 60.0
XXXXX 1.05 Michael_Feliz_PIT 51.7
XXXXX 0.99 Wei-Chung_Wang_PIT 29.7
XXXXX -0.40 Yacksel_Rios_PIT 8.0
XXXXX -0.50 Kyle_Crick_PIT 49.0
XXXXX -0.92 Yefry_Ramirez_PIT 19.0
XXXXX -1.20 Clay_Holmes_PIT 44.3
-140- -1.85 Alex_McRae_PIT 20.3
-098- -2.14 Parker_Markel_PIT 15.3
-057- -2.79 Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT 29.3
Total 0.32 TIER=1.58

At tier 1.58 this staff is well above average which contradicts PITCH in team status.  This is because they have several well above average relievers and with expanded rosters their below average players don’t drag the staff down.

PIT Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.59 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 466
+133+ 2.37 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF-CF 506
XXXXX -0.53 Melky_Cabrera_PIT RF-LF 374
+015+ 6.30 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 610
XXXXX 1.22 Jose_Osuna_PIT RF-1B-3B 221
XXXXX -0.34 Pablo_Reyes_PIT RF-LF 111
-158- -1.74 Adam_Frazier_PIT 2B 552
-110- -2.08 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR 304
XXXXX 0.00 Steven_Brault_PIT none 0
Total 4.61 TIER=-0.03

This is almost a league average lineup exactly which agrees with BAT in team status.

That is all for now.  One more regular season playoff horse race until the actual playoffs coming in a few days.  Until then ….