Cubs Pirates meet once again. Let’s look at these Pirates.
PIT Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 50 | 70 | -17.3 | -50.9 | -19.8 | 20190816 |
| PIT | 65 | 82 | -6.9 | -71.8 | -21.4 | 20190913 |
Pirates went from -20 to -17 gaining 3 games in the last 4 weeks which is pretty good. Their PITCH however tanked further which was compensated by an increase in BAT. Unearned runs above average (UR) is horrible. Cubs may get some free runs this series.
PIT CHN 09_13_4:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | -17 | 0.357 | 0.423 | X | -0.03 | 0.09 | 1.58 |
| CHN | 10 | 0.667 | 0.577 | X | 0.43 | -0.45 | 1.99 |
TC Sim has the Pirates rated much higher than Vegas today even though both systems have Cubs heavily favored. Vegas is paying $180 on a $100 PIT bet. L, S, and R columns are all fairly equal. Cubs have a big advantage in deltaWAA=27 , the difference in WAA between the two teams.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven_Brault_PIT | 0.92 | 0.541 | 100.3 | 0.09 |
| Jon_Lester_CHN | 0.13 | 0.504 | 155.7 | -0.45 |
Lester has had some bad outings this season. Both pitchers hovering around league average.
PIT Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Steven_Brault_PIT | 100.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | James_Marvel_PIT | 5.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Joe_Musgrove_PIT | 159.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.57 | Dario_Agrazal_PIT | 62.3 | |
| -106- | -2.10 | Trevor_Williams_PIT | 131.3 | |
| -033- | -3.34 | Mitch_Keller_PIT | 38.0 | |
| Total | -4.97 | 0.455 |
Pirates running with 6 starters in expanded rosters. This is a pretty terrible rotation which shouldn’t surprise based on PITCH in their team status.
PIT Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +053+ | 4.03 | Felipe_Vazquez_PIT | 60.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.72 | Francisco_Liriano_PIT | 66.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Keone_Kela_PIT | 25.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Richard_Rodriguez_PIT | 60.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Michael_Feliz_PIT | 51.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.99 | Wei-Chung_Wang_PIT | 29.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Yacksel_Rios_PIT | 8.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.50 | Kyle_Crick_PIT | 49.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.92 | Yefry_Ramirez_PIT | 19.0 | |
| XXXXX | -1.20 | Clay_Holmes_PIT | 44.3 | |
| -140- | -1.85 | Alex_McRae_PIT | 20.3 | |
| -098- | -2.14 | Parker_Markel_PIT | 15.3 | |
| -057- | -2.79 | Geoff_Hartlieb_PIT | 29.3 | |
| Total | 0.32 | TIER=1.58 |
At tier 1.58 this staff is well above average which contradicts PITCH in team status. This is because they have several well above average relievers and with expanded rosters their below average players don’t drag the staff down.
PIT Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.59 | Kevin_Newman_PIT | SS-2B | 466 |
| +133+ | 2.37 | Bryan_Reynolds_PIT | LF-RF-CF | 506 |
| XXXXX | -0.53 | Melky_Cabrera_PIT | RF-LF | 374 |
| +015+ | 6.30 | Josh_Bell_PIT | 1B | 610 |
| XXXXX | 1.22 | Jose_Osuna_PIT | RF-1B-3B | 221 |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Pablo_Reyes_PIT | RF-LF | 111 |
| -158- | -1.74 | Adam_Frazier_PIT | 2B | 552 |
| -110- | -2.08 | Elias_Diaz_PIT | CR | 304 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Steven_Brault_PIT | none | 0 |
| Total | 4.61 | TIER=-0.03 |
This is almost a league average lineup exactly which agrees with BAT in team status.
That is all for now. One more regular season playoff horse race until the actual playoffs coming in a few days. Until then ….