Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs Reds started their series yesterday with the Cubs winning.  Let’s look at this Reds team.

CIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CIN 56 61 -34.6 59.7 16.0 20190813
CIN 70 81 -55.8 48.1 16.5 20190917

In the last 5 weeks Reds went from -5 to -11 losing 6 games which is pretty much a giving up for the season record.  BAT tanked even further and PITCH declined.

CIN CHN 09_17_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN -11 0.408 0.424 104 -1.38 3.77 -0.61
CHN 14 0.608 0.576 94 1.12 0.88 2.31

Cubs have better seasonal team WAA, Lineup and Relief.  Reds have a better starter pitching tonight.  Vegas and TC Sim very similar for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Sonny_Gray_CIN 6.61 0.682 163.7 3.77
Yu_Darvish_CHN 2.16 0.560 163.3 0.88

Sonny Gray pitched well this year so far.  Darvish is also pitching well considering how he started the year.

CIN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+014+ 6.61 Sonny_Gray_CIN 163.7
+027+ 5.48 Luis_Castillo_CIN 178.7
+151+ 2.21 Anthony_DeSclafani_CIN 155.7
XXXXX 0.63 Trevor_Bauer_CIN 206.0
XXXXX -1.05 Alex_Wood_CIN 35.7
-194- -1.55 Tyler_Mahle_CIN 116.3
Total 12.33 0.565

Gray is their best starter now surpassing Castillo.; both having excellent years.  With expanded rosters Reds fielding 6 starters.  Their top 5 make a pretty decent starting rotation for any team.

CIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+125+ 2.58 Michael_Lorenzen_CIN 78.0
XXXXX 1.62 Amir_Garrett_CIN 53.0
XXXXX 0.86 Robert_Stephenson_CIN 59.7
XXXXX 0.50 Raisel_Iglesias_CIN 62.3
XXXXX 0.17 Matt_Bowman_CIN 27.3
XXXXX 0 Keury_Mella 0
XXXXX -0.17 Lucas_Sims_CIN 38.0
XXXXX -0.17 Joel_Kuhnel_CIN 8.3
XXXXX -0.17 Jimmy_Herget_CIN 4.3
XXXXX -1.05 Sal_Romano_CIN 10.0
-135- -1.91 [A-Z].J._Alaniz_CIN 13.7
-034- -3.42 Kevin_Gausman_CIN 97.7
Total -1.16 TIER=-0.61

This is a below average relief squad.   A negative tier number means even their top 8 are below league average based on current rosters.

CIN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.44 Josh_VanMeter_CIN LF-2B-1B 235
-094- -2.27 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 566
+093+ 3.13 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 616
+180+ 1.95 Aristides_Aquino_CIN RF 176
-141- -1.83 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN CR 331
XXXXX -0.94 Phillip_Ervin_CIN LF-CF-RF 218
XXXXX -0.32 Brian_O’Grady_CIN BAT 32
-080- -2.42 Jose_Peraza_CIN 2B-SS-LF 361
XXXXX 0.00 Sonny_Gray_CIN none 0
Total -3.14 TIER=-1.38

This is quite a mixed bag of a lineup.  A tier number of -1.38  means this lineup is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.   This concurs with BAT in their team status.

Not much more to say about this other than Cubs need each and every game from now until  the end of the season in order to maintain pace with SLN and other NL teams fighting for wild card spots.  Historical playoff season series coming next as well as the final regular season Cubs status.  Until then ….