Cubs Status 9/20/2019

This will be the final Cubs Status for 2019 with only 10 days left in the regular season.   Let’s look at this Cubs team right now as it fights for a spot in the playoff season.

CHN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 77 66 8.3 71.0 4.4 20190910
CHN 82 71 39.7 74.3 1.6 20190920

In the last 10 days Cubs went from +11 to +11 moving exactly sideways.  Sideways is fine for June and July but not in September for teams hoping to make the playoffs let alone go far in the playoffs.

Cubs run differential suggest a WAA of around +24 so they are way under that.  This means Cubs are piling on runs in winning situations and losing close games; like yesterday’s 5-4 loss to SLN.  Pythagorean Expectation is an estimate based on historical averages.  The Commissioner of MLB only cares about W-L, real team WAA.

CHN 5 years

Date WAA BAT PITCH UR
20150920 25 4.2 61.3 -9.5
20160920 41 66.4 156.3 6.0
20170920 17 54.4 46.2 -4.4
20180920 26 31.6 68.8 9.1
20190920 11 39.7 74.3 1.6

It looks like Cubs Team 2017 has surpassed Team 2019.  Team 2017 would be 1 game behind the Team 2019 Cardinals.  With only 9 games left in the season Team 2019 has no way of reaching +22 where Team 2017 finished making this season the worst showing for CHN in the last 5 years.  Taking in account the last 70 years however this is a top top tier season.

CHN Tiers

Type Name_TeamID Tier #
Lineups 1.57
SP Yu_Darvish_CHN 0.69
SP Cole_Hamels_CHN 0.64
SP Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 2.41
SP Jon_Lester_CHN -0.61
SP Jose_Quintana_CHN -0.26
RP 2.44

These are tier assignments for various categories.  Cubs fielded a very good lineup yesterday.

CHN Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+050+ 4.54 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN 171.0
+180+ 1.93 Yu_Darvish_CHN 170.3
+183+ 1.87 Cole_Hamels_CHN 137.7
XXXXX 0.50 Jose_Quintana_CHN 162.7
XXXXX -0.02 Jon_Lester_CHN 165.7
Total 8.82 0.549

This is a decent starting rotation.  At rank #50 Kyle Hendricks is Cubs most valuable player this season.

CHN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+145+ 2.29 Kyle_Ryan_CHN 57.7
+158+ 2.14 Brandon_Kintzler_CHN 54.3
+166+ 2.08 Steve_Cishek_CHN 61.7
XXXXX 1.47 Rowan_Wick_CHN 32.0
XXXXX 1.30 Tyler_Chatwood_CHN 76.3
XXXXX 1.13 David_Phelps_CHN 30.7
XXXXX 0.67 Alec_Mills_CHN 26.3
XXXXX 0.32 Danny_Hultzen_CHN 3.0
XXXXX 0.21 Duane_Underwood_CHN 8.0
XXXXX 0 James_Norwood 0
XXXXX -0.44 Dillon_Maples_CHN 9.7
XXXXX -0.59 Pedro_Strop_CHN 38.3
XXXXX -0.63 Brad_Wieck_CHN 31.7
XXXXX -0.65 Craig_Kimbrel_CHN 19.7
-134- -2.04 Derek_Holland_CHN 81.3
Total 7.26 TIER=2.44

Kyle Ryan is now around tied with Cishek and Kintzler who all put up decent numbers in relief.  We covered Kyle Ryan in the AAA minor league report last season.  Chatwood also put up a decent season.  Maybe he can excel in long relief like Mike Montgomery.

CHN Hitters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+063+ 3.76 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+066+ 3.72 Javier_Baez_CHN SS
+098+ 3.13 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF
+121+ 2.73 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF
+141+ 2.35 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.86 Nico_Hoerner_CHN SS
XXXXX 0.82 Nicholas_Castellanos_CHN RF-DH
XXXXX 0.48 Ian_Happ_CHN LF-2B-CF
XXXXX 0.27 David_Bote_CHN 3B-2B
XXXXX 0.02 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B-RF
XXXXX -0.15 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B
XXXXX -0.25 Robel_Garcia_CHN 2B
XXXXX -0.29 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX -1.07 Tony_Kemp_CHN 2B-LF-CF
XXXXX -1.11 Addison_Russell_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX -1.34 Daniel_Descalso_CHN 2B
XXXXX -1.36 Jonathan_Lucroy_CHN CR
-199- -1.55 Albert_Almora_CHN CF
Total 11.02 0.532

The usual suspects top the list here.  Nobody in top 25 or top 10 however.  In the last 10 days Bryant went from unranked to blowing through ranks 100-200 ending just barely in top 100.  Not a bad year.

Castellanos at +0.82 started with the Cubs at -2.27 meaning he gained +3 in less than two months; a tremendous rate.  Unfortunately this model does not give out mulligans.   If you kill it on the back 9 you still have to count the front 9.   Without Castellanos Cubs would be at a real team WAA of +8 , 5 1/2 games behind SLN and 2 1/2 games behind MIL.

That is all for now.  This is playoff season for the Cubs from now until the end of regular season which is why Baez and Rizzo are back.  Horse race and handicapping for historical playoff seasons coming next.  Until then ….