This will be the final Cubs Status for 2019 with only 10 days left in the regular season. Let’s look at this Cubs team right now as it fights for a spot in the playoff season.
CHN Team Status
In the last 10 days Cubs went from +11 to +11 moving exactly sideways. Sideways is fine for June and July but not in September for teams hoping to make the playoffs let alone go far in the playoffs.
Cubs run differential suggest a WAA of around +24 so they are way under that. This means Cubs are piling on runs in winning situations and losing close games; like yesterday’s 5-4 loss to SLN. Pythagorean Expectation is an estimate based on historical averages. The Commissioner of MLB only cares about W-L, real team WAA.
CHN 5 years
It looks like Cubs Team 2017 has surpassed Team 2019. Team 2017 would be 1 game behind the Team 2019 Cardinals. With only 9 games left in the season Team 2019 has no way of reaching +22 where Team 2017 finished making this season the worst showing for CHN in the last 5 years. Taking in account the last 70 years however this is a top top tier season.
These are tier assignments for various categories. Cubs fielded a very good lineup yesterday.
This is a decent starting rotation. At rank #50 Kyle Hendricks is Cubs most valuable player this season.
Kyle Ryan is now around tied with Cishek and Kintzler who all put up decent numbers in relief. We covered Kyle Ryan in the AAA minor league report last season. Chatwood also put up a decent season. Maybe he can excel in long relief like Mike Montgomery.
The usual suspects top the list here. Nobody in top 25 or top 10 however. In the last 10 days Bryant went from unranked to blowing through ranks 100-200 ending just barely in top 100. Not a bad year.
Castellanos at +0.82 started with the Cubs at -2.27 meaning he gained +3 in less than two months; a tremendous rate. Unfortunately this model does not give out mulligans. If you kill it on the back 9 you still have to count the front 9. Without Castellanos Cubs would be at a real team WAA of +8 , 5 1/2 games behind SLN and 2 1/2 games behind MIL.
That is all for now. This is playoff season for the Cubs from now until the end of regular season which is why Baez and Rizzo are back. Horse race and handicapping for historical playoff seasons coming next. Until then ….