Playoff season starts tonight with the NL Wild Card game between Brewers and Nationals in Washington. This post will be like a regular season matchup post except it will feature both teams’ instead of just the team playing the Cubs.
Teams submit a 25 player roster at the beginning of each set of playoffs. September expansion rosters cause problems for tiering for many reasons that we’ll get into later. Tiering for playoffs will use end of August rosters using end of year data for all non playoff teams.
Wild Card playoff games are one and out. Let’s look at these two teams.
MIL Team Status
Last two weeks Brewers went from +9 to +16 gaining 7 games which is very good. Both BAT and PITCH improved to register almost even steven for the season in run differential.
WAS Team Status
Nationals went from +16 to +24 gaining 8 games in the last two weeks of this season which is also very good. These two team put the Cubs’ -5 games performance during their last two week run into perspective.
BAT improved tremendously, PITCH up, and UR, Unearned Runs above average, which is second best in MLB behind OAK this season.
MIL WAS 10_01_8:08_PM
Washington is up in WAA, way up in Lineup and Starter. MIL has a slight edge with relief but both squads hovering around average. At 0.643 Vegas has WAS almost a 2-1 favorite tonight. TC Sim has them less favored at 0.600 ( 3/2 ). Both systems are fairly equal, both favor the Nationals tonight.
Not much more to say about this. Being a one game series each team plays their best starter. There is no need to list starters since this is a one game series.
That’s a good top end to this relief squad but it drops off quickly which will be trouble for Brewers if Woodruff goes down early. And if he does Brewers have real starters to do long relief.
WAS relief is no bowl of cherries either. Hudson had a good season but he can’t pitch every inning in relief unless Scherzer goes 7 or 8 innings. But they have Stasburg and Corbin sitting on the bench if things get out of hand.
MIL Lineup Today
At Tier 0.13 this is a league average lineup. Looks like Yelich is still missing.
WAS Lineup Today
This is a rock em sock em lineup that should light up a relatively mediocre playoff pitcher like Woodruff. Tier 3.97 means this lineup is almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average based on 30 MLB teams. This is a lineup that can win a World Series.
The next playoff horse race post will come when when the 8 divisional contenders release their playoff rosters. If WAS wins it will be interesting to see how they fare against teams like LAN and HOU. The MLB commissioner makes teams play the game instead of determining who wins based on best stats. One game playoffs can be a crap shoot where anything can happen. Having a 60% chance of winning means WAS has a 40% chance of losing — well within the realm of possibility.
AL Wild Card tomorrow and then some historical playoff horse race tables coming next. Until then ….