AL Wild Card Game

AL Wild Card Game tonight.  Let’s look at this matchup.

TBA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
TBA 89 61 -8.5 112.7 2.1 20190915
TBA 96 66 -16.1 120.8 1.4 20191002

Tampa has near top of MLB PITCH based on runs scored against.  They went from +28 to +30 in the last two weeks gaining 2 games.  Their BAT is a little under water based on seasonal runs scored.

OAK Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
OAK 89 60 68.4 50.7 22.1 20190915
OAK 97 65 56.9 76.8 25.4 20191002

Oakland has balanced BAT and PITCH and top of MLB UR which means very good fielding.  They went from +29 to +32 gaining 3 games in the last two weeks which is good.  A team that gains 3 games a month will win 90 games in a season.  Both these teams tonight won way more than that.

TBA OAK 10_02_8:09_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.465 0.468 101 -0.38 3.26 1.52
OAK 32 0.556 0.532 96 1.89 0.88 3.72

Vegas and TC Sim almost exactly in agreement on this game, both favoring the home team OAK.  WAA about the same between these two teams.  OAK has better lineup and relief, TBA has a better starter tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Charlie_Morton_TBA 6.19 0.643 194.7 3.26
Sean_Manaea_OAK 2.25 0.840 29.7 0.88

With only 29 2/3 innings pitched, Sean Manaea is a relatively new guy who is Oakland’s hottest pitcher right now based upon Win Percentage.  Oakland has Mike Fiers backing him up and listed as the only other starter on their playoff roster.

Morton is a top tier pitcher this season but had a very tumultuous career since 2008.  His post season record isn’t very good.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -1.11 54.7 4.45 10 4 Charlie_Morton_TOT PITCH

An ERA of 4.45 would be around average in a regular season.  Teams give up far less runs in post season so Morton is under water.  He isn’t ranked in the bottom 200 however like a future HOF pitcher for LAN who we’ll mention during NLDS coverage.  Sometimes great pitchers have trouble in post season and teams have to pitch them often and hope for the best.

TBA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+083+ 3.42 Emilio_Pagan_TBA 70.0
+198+ 1.74 Nick_Anderson_TBA 65.0
XXXXX 1.62 Diego_Castillo_TBA 68.7
XXXXX 1.57 Oliver_Drake_TBA 56.0
XXXXX 0.42 Chaz_Roe_TBA 51.0
XXXXX -0.36 Colin_Poche_TBA 51.7
Total 8.41 TIER=1.52

This is an above average relief squad.

OAK Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+037+ 5.23 Liam_Hendriks_OAK 85.0
+088+ 3.36 Yusmeiro_Petit_OAK 83.0
+179+ 2.10 Chris_Bassitt_OAK 144.0
XXXXX 1.55 Ryan_Buchter_OAK 45.3
XXXXX 0.82 Jesus_Luzardo_OAK 12.0
XXXXX 0.65 J.B._Wendelken_OAK 32.7
XXXXX 0.34 A.J._Puk_OAK 11.3
XXXXX 0.21 Joakim_Soria_OAK 69.0
XXXXX -0.17 Jake_Diekman_OAK 62.0
Total 14.09 TIER=3.72

This relief squad is almost 2 standard deviations above league average and might be the best of the 10 remaining teams playing baseball now.  We’ll know for sure in a few days when all playoff rosters are released.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.67 Yandy_Diaz_TBA 3B-1B-DH 347
XXXXX -1.51 Tommy_Pham_TBA LF-DH 654
+111+ 2.94 Austin_Meadows_TBA RF-DH-LF 591
+130+ 2.71 Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA CR-1B 391
-156- -1.81 Matt_Duffy_TBA 3B 169
XXXXX 0.40 Avisail_Garcia_TBA RF-DH-CF 530
-114- -2.23 Willy_Adames_TBA SS 584
XXXXX -0.21 Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA CF 480
XXXXX -0.17 Michael_Brosseau_TBA 2B 142
Total 0.96 TIER=-0.38

This lineup is slightly below average which one would expect based upon their BAT in team status.

OAK Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+082+ 3.42 Marcus_Semien_OAK SS 747
+108+ 3.00 Ramon_Laureano_OAK CF-RF 481
+106+ 3.09 Matt_Chapman_OAK 3B 670
+098+ 3.19 Matt_Olson_OAK 1B 547
XXXXX 1.74 Mark_Canha_OAK CF-RF-DH-1B-LF 497
XXXXX 0.57 Jurickson_Profar_OAK 2B 518
XXXXX 0.40 Khris_Davis_OAK DH 533
-096- -2.39 Robbie_Grossman_OAK LF-RF 482
XXXXX 0.78 Sean_Murphy_OAK CR 60
Total 13.80 TIER=1.89

This is a decent lineup for a playoff team.

That’s all for now.  ALDS and NLDS handicapping next and when we get all playoff rosters we’ll do part 11 of the playoff horse race series — this time with actual playoff contenders.  Until then .,…