AL Wild Card Game tonight. Let’s look at this matchup.
TBA Team Status
Tampa has near top of MLB PITCH based on runs scored against. They went from +28 to +30 in the last two weeks gaining 2 games. Their BAT is a little under water based on seasonal runs scored.
OAK Team Status
Oakland has balanced BAT and PITCH and top of MLB UR which means very good fielding. They went from +29 to +32 gaining 3 games in the last two weeks which is good. A team that gains 3 games a month will win 90 games in a season. Both these teams tonight won way more than that.
TBA OAK 10_02_8:09_PM
Vegas and TC Sim almost exactly in agreement on this game, both favoring the home team OAK. WAA about the same between these two teams. OAK has better lineup and relief, TBA has a better starter tonight.
With only 29 2/3 innings pitched, Sean Manaea is a relatively new guy who is Oakland’s hottest pitcher right now based upon Win Percentage. Oakland has Mike Fiers backing him up and listed as the only other starter on their playoff roster.
Morton is a top tier pitcher this season but had a very tumultuous career since 2008. His post season record isn’t very good.
An ERA of 4.45 would be around average in a regular season. Teams give up far less runs in post season so Morton is under water. He isn’t ranked in the bottom 200 however like a future HOF pitcher for LAN who we’ll mention during NLDS coverage. Sometimes great pitchers have trouble in post season and teams have to pitch them often and hope for the best.
This is an above average relief squad.
This relief squad is almost 2 standard deviations above league average and might be the best of the 10 remaining teams playing baseball now. We’ll know for sure in a few days when all playoff rosters are released.
TBA Lineup Today
This lineup is slightly below average which one would expect based upon their BAT in team status.
OAK Lineup Today
This is a decent lineup for a playoff team.
That’s all for now. ALDS and NLDS handicapping next and when we get all playoff rosters we’ll do part 11 of the playoff horse race series — this time with actual playoff contenders. Until then .,…