… and then there were 8. Let’s look at the playoff horse race table for the final 8 horses in this race.
ELO
Looks like Dodgers eeked out Astros in ELO. WAR has Dodgers near the bottom, this data model has them second to HOU. Do not know how ELO is compiled so can’t comment further. The next two tables are standard playoff horse race tables breaking down each team’s 25 player roster according to this data model (WAA) and WAR.
WAA
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 52 | 63.0 | 28.1 | 26.2 | 8.7 | 14.4 |
| LAN | 50 | 53.8 | 21.1 | 24.5 | 8.3 | -12.6 |
| WAS | 24 | 49.9 | 24.9 | 20.9 | 4.2 | 18.4 |
| MIN | 40 | 49.1 | 31.1 | 4.5 | 13.5 | -14.6 |
| NYA | 44 | 42.3 | 28.6 | 1.6 | 12.1 | 11.4 |
| ATL | 32 | 38.2 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 10.5 | -8.6 |
| SLN | 20 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 6.4 |
| TBA | 30 | 19.3 | -1.2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 1.4 |
Houston has the best starting rotation while MIN has best hitters and relief. Let’s see what WAR has to say.
WAR
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 52 | 67.5 | 39.1 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 14.4 |
| WAS | 24 | 52.9 | 26.2 | 21.5 | 5.2 | 18.4 |
| NYA | 44 | 49.3 | 33.8 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 11.4 |
| MIN | 40 | 49.0 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 7.3 | -14.6 |
| TBA | 30 | 45.7 | 27.1 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 1.4 |
| ATL | 32 | 44.2 | 22.7 | 14.0 | 7.5 | -8.6 |
| LAN | 50 | 41.4 | 26.4 | 13.0 | 2.0 | -12.6 |
| SLN | 20 | 39.9 | 23.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 6.4 |
Dodgers as a team gave up the fewest runs by far in MLB which means great pitching. Below are the top two according to PITCH.
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAN | 106 | 56 | 107.9 | 177.8 | -12.6 | |
| HOU | 107 | 55 | 139.9 | 127.8 | 14.4 |
The above shows the LAN way above second place HOU. WAA has LAN and HOU pitching around equal, top of the pack. WAR has LAN Starter + Relief value at the bottom of these 8 teams. That is simply not possible based on PITCH. A team does not win by having more strikeouts or less walks than the other team. Teams win by giving up fewer runs than the other team.
Handicapping 10/4/2019
The below will show game tables the four divisional games played today.
WAS LAN 10_04_9:37_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 24 | 0.417 | 0.420 | 97 | 2.63 | 2.95 | -0.03 |
| LAN | 50 | 0.600 | 0.580 | 99 | 3.15 | 3.09 | 1.60 |
Vegas and TC Sim in agreement on this game except for …
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 5.88 | 0.627 | 209.0 | 2.95 |
| Clayton_Kershaw_LAN | 6.11 | 0.654 | 178.3 | 3.09 |
Both pitchers about equal, each having a great season. WAR has Strasburg ranked #15, Kershaw #95. Here’s their post season records.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +030+ | 2.54 | 33.0 | 0.27 | 5 | 1 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | PITCH | |
| -008- | -2.73 | 184.3 | 4.20 | 29 | 7 | Clayton_Kershaw_LAN | PITCH |
Kershaw had problems in past post seasons and Strasburg hardly gave up any runs so far in his 33 innings of post season work. Past results don’t affect future results. All Cubs fans are thankful that playoff Clayton Kershaw came out to pitch in 2016 NLCS. Handicapping is based upon the value of regular season Clayton Kershaw however.
TBA HOU 10_04_2:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBA | 30 | 0.312 | 0.345 | 110 | -0.54 | 1.68 | 2.04 |
| HOU | 52 | 0.722 | 0.655 | 90 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.79 |
Houston won this game. Vegas had them at almost 3-1 favorites. They had a maxed out lineup and starter today.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler_Glasnow_TBA | 3.74 | 0.777 | 60.7 | 1.68 |
| Justin_Verlander_HOU | 9.70 | 0.696 | 223.0 | 4.00 |
Verlander is the #1 player this season according to this data model. He’s #5 with WAR.
SLN ATL 10_04_4:37_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 20 | 0.524 | 0.474 | 90 | -0.31 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
| ATL | 32 | 0.500 | 0.526 | 105 | 2.14 | -0.62 | 2.51 |
Vegas favors SLN slightly, TC Sim favors ATL slightly; both around 50/50 don’t know for this game.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 8.04 | 0.684 | 196.3 | 4.00 |
| Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL | -0.15 | 0.494 | 117.0 | -0.62 |
Flaherty is Cardinals’ best pitcher.
MIN NYA 10_04_7:07_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 40 | 0.370 | 0.494 | 133 | 3.95 | 1.57 | 3.72 |
| NYA | 44 | 0.655 | 0.506 | 77 | 3.64 | 0.90 | 3.13 |
Vegas has Yankees heavily favored. TC Sim calls this game even steven.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose_Berrios_MIN | 3.55 | 0.580 | 200.3 | 1.57 |
| James_Paxton_NYA | 2.42 | 0.572 | 150.7 | 0.90 |
Neither starter has post season experience.
Looks like we’re at the end. Handicapping post tomorrow and maybe with some drill down into playoff rosters for the ALDS teams. Then we’ll do NLDS. Until then ….