2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 11

… and then there were 8.   Let’s look at the playoff horse race table for the final 8 horses in this race.

ELO

elo10042019

Looks like Dodgers eeked out Astros in ELO.  WAR has Dodgers near the bottom, this data model has them second to HOU.  Do not know how ELO is compiled so can’t comment further.  The next two tables are standard playoff horse race tables breaking down each team’s 25 player roster according to this data model (WAA) and WAR.

WAA

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 63.0 28.1 26.2 8.7 14.4
LAN 50 53.8 21.1 24.5 8.3 -12.6
WAS 24 49.9 24.9 20.9 4.2 18.4
MIN 40 49.1 31.1 4.5 13.5 -14.6
NYA 44 42.3 28.6 1.6 12.1 11.4
ATL 32 38.2 14.0 13.7 10.5 -8.6
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4
TBA 30 19.3 -1.2 11.2 9.3 1.4

Houston has the best starting rotation while MIN has best hitters and relief.  Let’s see what WAR has to say.

WAR

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 67.5 39.1 21.7 6.7 14.4
WAS 24 52.9 26.2 21.5 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 49.3 33.8 7.4 8.1 11.4
MIN 40 49.0 31.8 9.9 7.3 -14.6
TBA 30 45.7 27.1 10.6 8.0 1.4
ATL 32 44.2 22.7 14.0 7.5 -8.6
LAN 50 41.4 26.4 13.0 2.0 -12.6
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

Dodgers as a team gave up the fewest runs by far in MLB which means great pitching.  Below are the top two according to PITCH.

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 106 56 107.9 177.8 -12.6
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4

The above shows the  LAN way above second place HOU.  WAA has LAN and HOU pitching around equal, top of the pack.  WAR has LAN Starter + Relief value at the bottom of these 8 teams.  That is simply not possible based on PITCH.  A team does not win by having more strikeouts or less walks than the other team.  Teams win by giving up fewer runs than the other team.

Handicapping 10/4/2019

The below will show game tables the four divisional games played today.

WAS LAN 10_04_9:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.417 0.420 97 2.63 2.95 -0.03
LAN 50 0.600 0.580 99 3.15 3.09 1.60

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement on this game except for …

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 6.11 0.654 178.3 3.09

Both pitchers about equal, each having a great season.  WAR has Strasburg ranked #15, Kershaw #95.  Here’s their post season records.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH
-008- -2.73 184.3 4.20 29 7 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH

Kershaw had problems in past post seasons and Strasburg hardly gave up any runs so far in his 33 innings of post season work.  Past results don’t affect future results.  All Cubs fans are thankful that playoff Clayton Kershaw came out to pitch in 2016 NLCS.  Handicapping is based upon the value of regular season Clayton Kershaw however.

TBA HOU 10_04_2:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.312 0.345 110 -0.54 1.68 2.04
HOU 52 0.722 0.655 90 4.00 4.00 1.79

Houston won this game.  Vegas had them at almost 3-1 favorites.  They had a maxed out lineup and starter today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 3.74 0.777 60.7 1.68
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander is the #1 player this season according to this data model.  He’s #5 with WAR.

SLN ATL 10_04_4:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.524 0.474 90 -0.31 4.00 2.29
ATL 32 0.500 0.526 105 2.14 -0.62 2.51

Vegas favors SLN slightly, TC Sim favors ATL slightly; both around 50/50 don’t know for this game.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.62

Flaherty is Cardinals’ best pitcher.

MIN NYA 10_04_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.370 0.494 133 3.95 1.57 3.72
NYA 44 0.655 0.506 77 3.64 0.90 3.13

Vegas has Yankees heavily favored.  TC Sim calls this game even steven.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jose_Berrios_MIN 3.55 0.580 200.3 1.57
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.90

Neither starter has post season experience.

Looks like we’re at the end.  Handicapping post tomorrow and maybe with some drill down into playoff rosters for the ALDS teams.  Then we’ll do NLDS.   Until then ….