This post will cover detail breakdowns of the 4 teams in ALDS since only AL teams are playing today. Tomorrow we’ll do the same for NLDS.
MIN vs. NYA
Minnesota is down 1-0 in the only ALDS series featuring two actual winners of their divisions.
MIN Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 91 | 57 | 136.5 | 47.6 | -11.9 | 20190915 |
| MIN | 101 | 61 | 156.9 | 45.8 | -14.6 | 20191005 |
MIN went from +34 to +40 in last two weeks of regular season gaining 6 games which was mostly due to hitting according to BAT . Their UR is near worst in MLB.
NYA Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYA | 98 | 52 | 157.4 | 16.7 | 12.1 | 20190915 |
| NYA | 103 | 59 | 157.9 | 31.8 | 11.4 | 20191005 |
Yankees went from +46 to +44 losing two games. BAT stayed the same which is slightly ahead of second place MIN in that category out of all 30 MLB teams.
MIN NYA 10_05_5:07_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 40 | 0.377 | 0.495 | X | 3.72 | 0.54 | 3.26 |
| NYA | 44 | 0.643 | 0.505 | X | 3.43 | -0.41 | 3.01 |
These numbers are based on regular season. Playoff factors have not been incorporated into simulation yet. On paper MIN and NYA are very similar in every aspect. Above shows Lineup , Starter , and Relief all around equivalent for each team. Both lineups above Tier 3.00 which are top shelf MLB lineups.
Minnesota’s relief choked last night and they gave up 2 unearned runs which adds to their already terrible UR. This model has this game even steven because on paper these two teams are even steven. Vegas has NYA heavily favored giving MIN bettors $170 on every $100 bet. This pushes EV into MIN territory.
Home field advantage as well as other factors that do not mean much in regular season can be significant in post season. Great HOF pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and even Greg Maddux, have trouble pitching in post season.
The Yankees won 5/7 against MIN in regular season. MIN won one of their two wins in New York. Does that matter? How do you model that? This simulation is still a work in progress. It needs to beat Vegas by more than 10% to be viable.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy_Dobnak_MIN | 1.89 | 0.801 | 28.3 | 0.54 |
| Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA | 0.25 | 0.506 | 182.0 | -0.41 |
Two relatively mediocre pitchers. Randy Dobnak is listed as a reliever below. Where this model gets current rosters could have errors. Or maybe Minnesota is pulling a Tampa Bay trick by using an opener for the first inning.
MIN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +110+ | 2.96 | Taylor_Rogers_MIN | 69.0 | |
| +127+ | 2.62 | Tyler_Duffey_MIN | 57.7 | |
| +162+ | 2.27 | Trevor_May_MIN | 64.3 | |
| +189+ | 1.89 | Randy_Dobnak_MIN | 28.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.53 | Zack_Littell_MIN | 37.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.49 | Sergio_Romo_MIN | 60.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Cody_Stashak_MIN | 25.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Brusdar_Graterol_MIN | 9.7 | |
| Total | 13.41 | TIER=3.26 |
That’s a solid staff with value spread evenly among top 6.
NYA Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +059+ | 4.03 | Adam_Ottavino_NYA | 66.3 | |
| +073+ | 3.72 | Zack_Britton_NYA | 61.3 | |
| +107+ | 3.07 | Aroldis_Chapman_NYA | 57.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.20 | Tommy_Kahnle_NYA | 61.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Luis_Cessa_NYA | 81.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Chad_Green_NYA | 69.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA | 31.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.55 | Tyler_Lyons_NYA | 12.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.51 | J.A._Happ_NYA | 161.3 | |
| Total | 11.25 | TIER=3.01 |
Yankees have two relievers top 100 which can be a significant advantage over Minnesota’s spread out relief staff in a 5 game series.
MIN Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +033+ | 5.35 | Mitch_Garver_MIN | CR | 359 |
| +193+ | 1.83 | Jorge_Polanco_MIN | SS-DH | 704 |
| +014+ | 6.74 | Nelson_Cruz_MIN | DH | 521 |
| +024+ | 6.15 | Eddie_Rosario_MIN | LF-RF | 590 |
| +038+ | 5.23 | Miguel_Sano_MIN | 3B | 439 |
| +046+ | 4.75 | Max_Kepler_MIN | RF-CF | 596 |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Marwin_Gonzalez_MIN | RF-3B-1B-LF | 463 |
| XXXXX | 0.99 | C.J._Cron_MIN | 1B | 499 |
| XXXXX | -0.59 | Luis_Arraez_MIN | 2B-LF-3B | 366 |
| Total | 30.03 | TIER=3.72 |
This is a rock em sock em lineup. Looks like that Nelson Cruz free agent signing worked out well.
NYA Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +035+ | 5.29 | DJ_LeMahieu_NYA | 2B-3B-1B | 655 |
| +172+ | 2.14 | Aaron_Judge_NYA | RF-DH | 447 |
| +126+ | 2.65 | Brett_Gardner_NYA | CF-LF | 550 |
| +043+ | 4.96 | Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA | 1B-DH | 486 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA | LF | 72 |
| +062+ | 3.97 | Gleyber_Torres_NYA | SS-2B | 604 |
| +104+ | 3.11 | Gary_Sanchez_NYA | CR-DH | 446 |
| +142+ | 2.48 | Didi_Gregorius_NYA | SS | 344 |
| +099+ | 3.17 | Gio_Urshela_NYA | 3B | 476 |
| Total | 28.13 | TIER=3.43 |
… and so is this. One should expect these two teams would have the highest valued lineups based on both are leading two teams with BAT in MLB.
TBA vs. HOU
TBA Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBA | 89 | 61 | -8.5 | 112.7 | 2.1 | 20190915 |
| TBA | 96 | 66 | -16.1 | 120.8 | 1.4 | 20191005 |
Went from +28 to +30 last two weeks in September.
HOU Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 97 | 53 | 131.4 | 103.6 | 12.1 | 20190915 |
| HOU | 107 | 55 | 139.9 | 127.8 | 14.4 | 20191005 |
Went from +44 to +52 gaining 8 games becoming the best team in baseball based upon the only stat that matters; wins minus losses.
TBA HOU 10_05_9:07_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBA | 30 | 0.278 | 0.326 | X | -0.62 | -0.37 | 1.76 |
| HOU | 52 | 0.762 | 0.674 | X | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.52 |
HOU is favored 3-1 which is a very big payout for TBA bettors if they win. As Vegas expected probability approaches 1 , Expected value approaches infinity. This will be discussed in more detail in the off season. TC Sim has HOU heavily favored as well but not by as much. Houston leads in all categories; WAA, Lineup , Starter, and Relief.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake_Snell_TBA | 0.32 | 0.513 | 107.0 | -0.37 |
| Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 9.64 | 0.704 | 212.3 | 4.00 |
Gerrit Cole is the #2 best player in MLB this season. He’s at a maxed out tier of 4.00.
TBA Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +083+ | 3.42 | Emilio_Pagan_TBA | 70.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.76 | Yonny_Chirinos_TBA | 133.3 | |
| +198+ | 1.74 | Nick_Anderson_TBA | 65.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.62 | Diego_Castillo_TBA | 68.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.57 | Oliver_Drake_TBA | 56.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | Chaz_Roe_TBA | 51.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Colin_Poche_TBA | 51.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.84 | Brendan_McKay_TBA | 49.0 | |
| Total | 9.33 | TIER=1.76 |
Decent relief staff, almost 1 complete standard deviation above league average.
HOU Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +056+ | 4.14 | Will_Harris_HOU | 60.0 | |
| +121+ | 2.75 | Roberto_Osuna_HOU | 65.0 | |
| +123+ | 2.69 | Ryan_Pressly_HOU | 54.3 | |
| +195+ | 1.83 | Wade_Miley_HOU | 167.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.55 | Joe_Smith_HOU | 25.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Hector_Rondon_HOU | 60.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Jose_Urquidy_HOU | 41.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Josh_James_HOU | 61.3 | |
| Total | 14.13 | TIER=3.52 |
This staff is much better, almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average.
TBA Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +111+ | 2.94 | Austin_Meadows_TBA | RF-DH-LF | 591 |
| XXXXX | -1.51 | Tommy_Pham_TBA | LF-DH | 654 |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Ji-Man_Choi_TBA | 1B-DH | 487 |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Yandy_Diaz_TBA | 3B-1B-DH | 347 |
| XXXXX | 1.41 | Brandon_Lowe_TBA | 2B | 327 |
| +130+ | 2.71 | Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA | CR-1B | 391 |
| XXXXX | -1.36 | Joey_Wendle_TBA | 2B-3B-SS | 263 |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA | CF | 480 |
| -114- | -2.23 | Willy_Adames_TBA | SS | 584 |
| Total | 2.25 | TIER=-0.62 |
This is a below league average lineup.
HOU Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 6.17 | George_Springer_HOU | CF-RF-DH | 556 |
| +089+ | 3.34 | Jose_Altuve_HOU | 2B | 548 |
| +124+ | 2.67 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 637 |
| +011+ | 7.22 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B-SS | 690 |
| +042+ | 5.00 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | DH-LF | 369 |
| +052+ | 4.45 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B-3B | 612 |
| +137+ | 2.54 | Carlos_Correa_HOU | SS | 321 |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Robinson_Chirinos_HOU | CR | 437 |
| -137- | -1.97 | Josh_Reddick_HOU | RF-LF | 550 |
| Total | 30.51 | TIER=3.80 |
This is a rock em sock em lineup on par with both NYA and MIN.
ALDS Starters
MIN
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +077+ | 3.55 | Jose_Berrios_MIN | 200.3 | |
| +080+ | 3.46 | Jake_Odorizzi_MIN | 159.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Devin_Smeltzer_MIN | 49.0 | |
| XXXXX | -1.47 | Kyle_Gibson_MIN | 160.0 | |
| Total | 6.21 | 0.549 |
NYA
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +149+ | 2.42 | James_Paxton_NYA | 150.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Luis_Severino_NYA | 12.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA | 182.0 | |
| Total | 3.51 | 0.546 |
TBA
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +021+ | 6.19 | Charlie_Morton_TBA | 194.7 | |
| +071+ | 3.74 | Tyler_Glasnow_TBA | 60.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.94 | Ryan_Yarbrough_TBA | 141.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.32 | Blake_Snell_TBA | 107.0 | |
| Total | 11.19 | 0.600 |
HOU
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +001+ | 9.70 | Justin_Verlander_HOU | 223.0 | |
| +002+ | 9.64 | Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 212.3 | |
| +009+ | 7.35 | Zack_Greinke_HOU | 208.7 | |
| Total | 26.69 | 0.686 |
Houston has three pitchers in the top 10 along with a +30 lineup. They will be tough for anyone to beat.
Not much more to say about this. NLDS teams tomorrow. Until then ….