ALDS Matchups

This post will cover detail breakdowns of the 4 teams in ALDS since only AL teams are playing today.  Tomorrow we’ll do the same for NLDS.

MIN vs. NYA

Minnesota is down 1-0 in the only ALDS series featuring two actual winners of their divisions.

MIN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
MIN 91 57 136.5 47.6 -11.9 20190915
MIN 101 61 156.9 45.8 -14.6 20191005

MIN went from +34 to +40 in last two weeks of regular season gaining 6 games which was mostly due to hitting according to BAT .  Their UR is near worst in MLB.

NYA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
NYA 98 52 157.4 16.7 12.1 20190915
NYA 103 59 157.9 31.8 11.4 20191005

Yankees went from +46 to +44 losing two games.  BAT stayed the same which is slightly ahead of second place MIN in that category out of all 30 MLB teams.

MIN NYA 10_05_5:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
MIN 40 0.377 0.495 X 3.72 0.54 3.26
NYA 44 0.643 0.505 X 3.43 -0.41 3.01

These numbers are based on regular season.  Playoff factors have not been incorporated into simulation yet.  On paper MIN and NYA are very similar in every aspect.  Above shows Lineup , Starter , and Relief all around equivalent for each team.  Both lineups above Tier 3.00 which are top shelf MLB lineups.

Minnesota’s relief choked last night and they gave up 2 unearned runs which adds to their already terrible UR.  This model has this game even steven because on paper these two teams are even steven.  Vegas has NYA heavily favored giving MIN bettors $170 on every $100 bet.  This pushes EV into MIN territory.

Home field advantage as well as other factors that do not mean much in regular season can be significant in post season.  Great HOF pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and even Greg Maddux, have trouble pitching in post season.

The Yankees won 5/7 against MIN in regular season.  MIN won one of their two wins in New York.  Does that matter?  How do you model that?   This simulation is still a work in progress.  It needs to beat Vegas by more than 10% to be viable.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Randy_Dobnak_MIN 1.89 0.801 28.3 0.54
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 0.25 0.506 182.0 -0.41

Two relatively mediocre pitchers.  Randy Dobnak is listed as a reliever below.  Where this model gets current rosters could have errors.  Or maybe Minnesota is pulling a Tampa Bay trick by using an opener for the first inning.

MIN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+110+ 2.96 Taylor_Rogers_MIN 69.0
+127+ 2.62 Tyler_Duffey_MIN 57.7
+162+ 2.27 Trevor_May_MIN 64.3
+189+ 1.89 Randy_Dobnak_MIN 28.3
XXXXX 1.53 Zack_Littell_MIN 37.0
XXXXX 1.49 Sergio_Romo_MIN 60.3
XXXXX 0.69 Cody_Stashak_MIN 25.0
XXXXX -0.04 Brusdar_Graterol_MIN 9.7
Total 13.41 TIER=3.26

That’s a solid staff with value spread evenly among top 6.

NYA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+059+ 4.03 Adam_Ottavino_NYA 66.3
+073+ 3.72 Zack_Britton_NYA 61.3
+107+ 3.07 Aroldis_Chapman_NYA 57.0
XXXXX 1.20 Tommy_Kahnle_NYA 61.3
XXXXX 0.76 Luis_Cessa_NYA 81.0
XXXXX 0.55 Chad_Green_NYA 69.0
XXXXX -0.02 Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA 31.7
XXXXX -0.55 Tyler_Lyons_NYA 12.7
XXXXX -1.51 J.A._Happ_NYA 161.3
Total 11.25 TIER=3.01

Yankees have two relievers top 100 which can be a significant advantage over Minnesota’s spread out relief staff in a 5 game series.

MIN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+033+ 5.35 Mitch_Garver_MIN CR 359
+193+ 1.83 Jorge_Polanco_MIN SS-DH 704
+014+ 6.74 Nelson_Cruz_MIN DH 521
+024+ 6.15 Eddie_Rosario_MIN LF-RF 590
+038+ 5.23 Miguel_Sano_MIN 3B 439
+046+ 4.75 Max_Kepler_MIN RF-CF 596
XXXXX -0.42 Marwin_Gonzalez_MIN RF-3B-1B-LF 463
XXXXX 0.99 C.J._Cron_MIN 1B 499
XXXXX -0.59 Luis_Arraez_MIN 2B-LF-3B 366
Total 30.03 TIER=3.72

This is a rock em sock em lineup.  Looks like that Nelson Cruz free agent signing worked out well.

NYA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
XXXXX 0.36 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA LF 72
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
Total 28.13 TIER=3.43

… and so is this.  One should expect these two teams would have the highest valued lineups based on both are leading two teams with BAT in MLB.

TBA vs. HOU

TBA Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
TBA 89 61 -8.5 112.7 2.1 20190915
TBA 96 66 -16.1 120.8 1.4 20191005

Went from +28 to +30 last two weeks in September.

HOU Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
HOU 97 53 131.4 103.6 12.1 20190915
HOU 107 55 139.9 127.8 14.4 20191005

Went from +44 to +52 gaining 8 games becoming the best team in baseball based upon the only stat that matters; wins minus losses.

TBA HOU 10_05_9:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
TBA 30 0.278 0.326 X -0.62 -0.37 1.76
HOU 52 0.762 0.674 X 3.80 4.00 3.52

HOU is favored 3-1 which is a very big payout for TBA bettors if they win.  As Vegas expected probability approaches 1 , Expected value approaches infinity.  This will be discussed in more detail in the off season.  TC Sim has HOU heavily favored as well but not by as much.  Houston leads in all categories; WAA, Lineup , Starter, and Relief.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Blake_Snell_TBA 0.32 0.513 107.0 -0.37
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

Gerrit Cole is the #2 best player in MLB this season.  He’s at a maxed out tier of 4.00.

TBA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+083+ 3.42 Emilio_Pagan_TBA 70.0
XXXXX 1.76 Yonny_Chirinos_TBA 133.3
+198+ 1.74 Nick_Anderson_TBA 65.0
XXXXX 1.62 Diego_Castillo_TBA 68.7
XXXXX 1.57 Oliver_Drake_TBA 56.0
XXXXX 0.42 Chaz_Roe_TBA 51.0
XXXXX -0.36 Colin_Poche_TBA 51.7
XXXXX -0.84 Brendan_McKay_TBA 49.0
Total 9.33 TIER=1.76

Decent relief staff, almost 1 complete standard deviation above league average.

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+056+ 4.14 Will_Harris_HOU 60.0
+121+ 2.75 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 65.0
+123+ 2.69 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 54.3
+195+ 1.83 Wade_Miley_HOU 167.3
XXXXX 1.55 Joe_Smith_HOU 25.0
XXXXX 1.05 Hector_Rondon_HOU 60.7
XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU 41.0
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_James_HOU 61.3
Total 14.13 TIER=3.52

This staff is much better, almost 2 complete standard deviations above league average.

TBA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+111+ 2.94 Austin_Meadows_TBA RF-DH-LF 591
XXXXX -1.51 Tommy_Pham_TBA LF-DH 654
XXXXX -0.17 Ji-Man_Choi_TBA 1B-DH 487
XXXXX 0.67 Yandy_Diaz_TBA 3B-1B-DH 347
XXXXX 1.41 Brandon_Lowe_TBA 2B 327
+130+ 2.71 Travis_d’Arnaud_TBA CR-1B 391
XXXXX -1.36 Joey_Wendle_TBA 2B-3B-SS 263
XXXXX -0.21 Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA CF 480
-114- -2.23 Willy_Adames_TBA SS 584
Total 2.25 TIER=-0.62

This is a below league average lineup.

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=3.80

This is a rock em sock em lineup on par with both NYA and MIN.

ALDS Starters

MIN

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+077+ 3.55 Jose_Berrios_MIN 200.3
+080+ 3.46 Jake_Odorizzi_MIN 159.0
XXXXX 0.67 Devin_Smeltzer_MIN 49.0
XXXXX -1.47 Kyle_Gibson_MIN 160.0
Total 6.21 0.549

NYA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+149+ 2.42 James_Paxton_NYA 150.7
XXXXX 0.84 Luis_Severino_NYA 12.0
XXXXX 0.25 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 182.0
Total 3.51 0.546

TBA

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+021+ 6.19 Charlie_Morton_TBA 194.7
+071+ 3.74 Tyler_Glasnow_TBA 60.7
XXXXX 0.94 Ryan_Yarbrough_TBA 141.7
XXXXX 0.32 Blake_Snell_TBA 107.0
Total 11.19 0.600

HOU

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+001+ 9.70 Justin_Verlander_HOU 223.0
+002+ 9.64 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 212.3
+009+ 7.35 Zack_Greinke_HOU 208.7
Total 26.69 0.686

Houston has three pitchers in the top 10 along with a +30 lineup.  They will be tough for anyone to beat.

Not much more to say about this.  NLDS teams tomorrow.  Until then ….