NLDS Matchups

Here are the NLDS Matchups for today.  Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.

Braves vs. Cardinals

Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today.  Below are last two week stretches for both teams.

ATL Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
ATL 93 57 85.4 36.7 -10.9 20190915
ATL 97 64 71.8 49.0 -8.8 20190930

SLN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
SLN 83 65 -33.6 113.8 11.1 20190915
SLN 90 71 -31.2 106.1 6.2 20190930

ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.545 0.604 X 1.60 3.71 2.42
SLN 20 0.476 0.396 X -0.78 0.16 1.95

EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled.  The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths.  Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category.  That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance.  TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mike_Soroka_ATL 7.35 0.689 174.7 3.71
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season.  Even WAR agrees.

ATL Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+097+ 3.25 Shane_Greene_ATL 62.7
+176+ 2.10 Sean_Newcomb_ATL 68.3
+196+ 1.81 Max_Fried_ATL 165.7
XXXXX 1.36 Josh_Tomlin_ATL 79.3
XXXXX 1.32 Mark_Melancon_ATL 67.3
XXXXX 1.09 Luke_Jackson_ATL 72.7
XXXXX 0.34 Darren_O’Day_ATL 5.3
Total 11.27 TIER=2.42

Top notch relief staff.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=1.95

At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.

ATL Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+030+ 5.69 Ronald_Acuna_ATL CF-LF-RF 715
+192+ 1.83 Ozzie_Albies_ATL 2B 702
+013+ 6.91 Freddie_Freeman_ATL 1B 692
+102+ 3.13 Josh_Donaldson_ATL 3B 659
XXXXX 0.94 Nick_Markakis_ATL RF 469
XXXXX -0.29 Matt_Joyce_ATL RF 238
XXXXX -0.40 Brian_McCann_ATL CR 316
XXXXX 1.01 Dansby_Swanson_ATL SS 545
XXXXX 0.00 Mike_Soroka_ATL none 0
Total 18.82 TIER=1.60

This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Adam_Wainwright_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.78

SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now.  Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.

LAN Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
LAN 96 54 97.5 156.6 -15.9 20190915
LAN 105 56 102.8 174.1 -12.8 20190930

WAS Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
WAS 81 66 56.0 31.7 17.1 20190915
WAS 92 69 78.8 42.0 18.2 20190930

LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.615 0.619 X 2.15 4.00 3.06
WAS 24 0.408 0.381 X 1.65 0.96 -0.17

Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN 9.30 0.729 182.7 4.00
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96

Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future.  Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.

LAN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+070+ 3.74 Julio_Urias_LAN 79.7
+161+ 2.27 Pedro_Baez_LAN 69.7
+170+ 2.16 Ross_Stripling_LAN 90.7
XXXXX 1.64 Kenta_Maeda_LAN 153.7
XXXXX 1.47 Adam_Kolarek_LAN 55.0
XXXXX 1.16 Kenley_Jansen_LAN 63.0
XXXXX 0.69 Dustin_May_LAN 34.7
XXXXX -0.08 Joe_Kelly_LAN 51.3
Total 13.05 TIER=3.06

This is a top shelf MLB relief staff.  WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX -0.04 Wander_Suero_WAS 71.3
XXXXX -0.59 Hunter_Strickland_WAS 24.3
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 4.16 TIER=-0.17

This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.

LAN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+090+ 3.34 Joc_Pederson_LAN LF-RF-1B 514
+029+ 5.82 Max_Muncy_LAN 2B-1B-3B 589
XXXXX 1.39 Justin_Turner_LAN 3B 549
+008+ 7.85 Cody_Bellinger_LAN RF-1B-CF 661
+064+ 3.91 Corey_Seager_LAN SS 541
XXXXX 1.32 A.J._Pollock_LAN CF-LF 342
XXXXX 0.10 Gavin_Lux_LAN 2B 82
XXXXX -1.22 Russell_Martin_LAN CR 249
XXXXX 0.00 Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN none 0
Total 22.51 TIER=2.15

Around one standard deviation above average lineup.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX -1.45 Brian_Dozier_WAS 2B 482
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 19.15 TIER=1.65

A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.

Starters

Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.

Braves

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+010+ 7.35 Mike_Soroka_ATL 174.7
+122+ 2.73 Julio_Teheran_ATL 174.7
+187+ 1.93 Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 112.7
XXXXX -0.15 Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL 117.0
Total 11.86 0.592

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Dodgers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+004+ 9.30 Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN 182.7
+025+ 6.11 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN 178.3
+036+ 5.27 Walker_Buehler_LAN 182.3
+120+ 2.79 Rich_Hill_LAN 58.7
Total 23.47 0.675

This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

Another very good rotation.  Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.

That’s all for now.  A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs.  Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game.  We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered.  Until then ….