Here are the NLDS Matchups for today. Not much commenting because I had to wait for lineups and watched the Bears game.
Braves vs. Cardinals
Atlanta beat the Cardinals 3-1 today. Below are last two week stretches for both teams.
ATL Team Status
Tm |
W |
L |
BAT |
PITCH |
UR |
|
ATL |
93 |
57 |
85.4 |
36.7 |
-10.9 |
20190915 |
ATL |
97 |
64 |
71.8 |
49.0 |
-8.8 |
20190930 |
SLN Team Status
Tm |
W |
L |
BAT |
PITCH |
UR |
|
SLN |
83 |
65 |
-33.6 |
113.8 |
11.1 |
20190915 |
SLN |
90 |
71 |
-31.2 |
106.1 |
6.2 |
20190930 |
ATL SLN 10_06_4:10_PM
|
WAA |
Vegas |
TC Sim |
EV |
L |
S |
R |
ATL |
32 |
0.545 |
0.604 |
X |
1.60 |
3.71 |
2.42 |
SLN |
20 |
0.476 |
0.396 |
X |
-0.78 |
0.16 |
1.95 |
EVs will not be displayed because there are other aspects of playoffs that need to be modeled. The L , S and R columns represent Lineups, Starter, and Relief strengths. Atlanta has Cardinals beat in every category. That doesn’t mean Atlanta is guaranteed to win however, just that they have a greater than 50/50 chance. TC Sim calculates that probability and has them favored more than Vegas today.
Starters |
WAA |
WinPct |
IP |
Tier |
Mike_Soroka_ATL |
7.35 |
0.689 |
174.7 |
3.71 |
Adam_Wainwright_SLN |
1.24 |
0.532 |
171.7 |
0.16 |
Soroka is a better pitcher than Wainwriight this season. Even WAR agrees.
ATL Relief
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+097+ |
3.25 |
Shane_Greene_ATL |
62.7 |
+176+ |
2.10 |
Sean_Newcomb_ATL |
68.3 |
+196+ |
1.81 |
Max_Fried_ATL |
165.7 |
XXXXX |
1.36 |
Josh_Tomlin_ATL |
79.3 |
XXXXX |
1.32 |
Mark_Melancon_ATL |
67.3 |
XXXXX |
1.09 |
Luke_Jackson_ATL |
72.7 |
XXXXX |
0.34 |
Darren_O’Day_ATL |
5.3 |
Total |
11.27 |
TIER=2.42 |
Top notch relief staff.
SLN Relief
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+068+ |
3.78 |
Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN |
74.0 |
XXXXX |
1.55 |
John_Brebbia_SLN |
72.7 |
XXXXX |
1.51 |
Carlos_Martinez_SLN |
48.3 |
XXXXX |
1.34 |
Ryan_Helsley_SLN |
36.7 |
XXXXX |
0.94 |
Tyler_Webb_SLN |
55.0 |
XXXXX |
0.92 |
Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN |
48.7 |
XXXXX |
0.08 |
Andrew_Miller_SLN |
54.7 |
XXXXX |
-0.17 |
Genesis_Cabrera_SLN |
20.3 |
Total |
9.95 |
TIER=1.95 |
At almost Tier 2 means SLN has a relief staff around one standard deviation above league average.
ATL Lineup Today
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
Pos |
PA |
+030+ |
5.69 |
Ronald_Acuna_ATL |
CF-LF-RF |
715 |
+192+ |
1.83 |
Ozzie_Albies_ATL |
2B |
702 |
+013+ |
6.91 |
Freddie_Freeman_ATL |
1B |
692 |
+102+ |
3.13 |
Josh_Donaldson_ATL |
3B |
659 |
XXXXX |
0.94 |
Nick_Markakis_ATL |
RF |
469 |
XXXXX |
-0.29 |
Matt_Joyce_ATL |
RF |
238 |
XXXXX |
-0.40 |
Brian_McCann_ATL |
CR |
316 |
XXXXX |
1.01 |
Dansby_Swanson_ATL |
SS |
545 |
XXXXX |
0.00 |
Mike_Soroka_ATL |
none |
0 |
Total |
18.82 |
TIER=1.60 |
This isn’t a +30 lineup like 3 ALDS teams put up yesterday but it’s decent.
SLN Lineup Today
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
Pos |
PA |
XXXXX |
-0.69 |
Dexter_Fowler_SLN |
RF-CF |
574 |
-174- |
-1.72 |
Kolten_Wong_SLN |
2B |
549 |
+129+ |
2.58 |
Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN |
1B |
682 |
+084+ |
3.42 |
Marcell_Ozuna_SLN |
LF |
549 |
XXXXX |
-1.07 |
Yadier_Molina_SLN |
CR |
452 |
-158- |
-1.81 |
Matt_Carpenter_SLN |
3B |
492 |
XXXXX |
0.88 |
Tommy_Edman_SLN |
3B-2B-RF |
349 |
XXXXX |
1.07 |
Paul_DeJong_SLN |
SS |
664 |
XXXXX |
0.00 |
Adam_Wainwright_SLN |
none |
0 |
Total |
2.66 |
TIER=-0.78 |
SLN has a below average lineup which reflects their below average BAT in team status above.
Dodgers vs. Nationals
Dodgers are beating Nationals 8-4 right now. Last two weeks team statuses below for each team.
LAN Team Status
Tm |
W |
L |
BAT |
PITCH |
UR |
|
LAN |
96 |
54 |
97.5 |
156.6 |
-15.9 |
20190915 |
LAN |
105 |
56 |
102.8 |
174.1 |
-12.8 |
20190930 |
WAS Team Status
Tm |
W |
L |
BAT |
PITCH |
UR |
|
WAS |
81 |
66 |
56.0 |
31.7 |
17.1 |
20190915 |
WAS |
92 |
69 |
78.8 |
42.0 |
18.2 |
20190930 |
LAN WAS 10_06_7:45_PM
|
WAA |
Vegas |
TC Sim |
EV |
L |
S |
R |
LAN |
50 |
0.615 |
0.619 |
X |
2.15 |
4.00 |
3.06 |
WAS |
24 |
0.408 |
0.381 |
X |
1.65 |
0.96 |
-0.17 |
Vegas and TC Sim almost completely in agreement.
Starters |
WAA |
WinPct |
IP |
Tier |
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN |
9.30 |
0.729 |
182.7 |
4.00 |
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS |
2.60 |
0.571 |
166.0 |
0.96 |
Patrick Corbin comes in relief to Sanchez in this game because we’re from the future. Corbin’s ranking shown below in Starters section.
LAN Relief
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+070+ |
3.74 |
Julio_Urias_LAN |
79.7 |
+161+ |
2.27 |
Pedro_Baez_LAN |
69.7 |
+170+ |
2.16 |
Ross_Stripling_LAN |
90.7 |
XXXXX |
1.64 |
Kenta_Maeda_LAN |
153.7 |
XXXXX |
1.47 |
Adam_Kolarek_LAN |
55.0 |
XXXXX |
1.16 |
Kenley_Jansen_LAN |
63.0 |
XXXXX |
0.69 |
Dustin_May_LAN |
34.7 |
XXXXX |
-0.08 |
Joe_Kelly_LAN |
51.3 |
Total |
13.05 |
TIER=3.06 |
This is a top shelf MLB relief staff. WAR has this staff bottom of 8 MLB contenders.
WAS Relief
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+079+ |
3.51 |
Daniel_Hudson_WAS |
73.0 |
XXXXX |
1.24 |
Austin_Voth_WAS |
43.7 |
XXXXX |
0.69 |
Tanner_Rainey_WAS |
48.3 |
XXXXX |
0.65 |
Sean_Doolittle_WAS |
60.0 |
XXXXX |
-0.04 |
Wander_Suero_WAS |
71.3 |
XXXXX |
-0.59 |
Hunter_Strickland_WAS |
24.3 |
XXXXX |
-1.30 |
Fernando_Rodney_WAS |
47.7 |
Total |
4.16 |
TIER=-0.17 |
This is a league average relief staff and a weakness for the Nationals.
LAN Lineup Today
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
Pos |
PA |
+090+ |
3.34 |
Joc_Pederson_LAN |
LF-RF-1B |
514 |
+029+ |
5.82 |
Max_Muncy_LAN |
2B-1B-3B |
589 |
XXXXX |
1.39 |
Justin_Turner_LAN |
3B |
549 |
+008+ |
7.85 |
Cody_Bellinger_LAN |
RF-1B-CF |
661 |
+064+ |
3.91 |
Corey_Seager_LAN |
SS |
541 |
XXXXX |
1.32 |
A.J._Pollock_LAN |
CF-LF |
342 |
XXXXX |
0.10 |
Gavin_Lux_LAN |
2B |
82 |
XXXXX |
-1.22 |
Russell_Martin_LAN |
CR |
249 |
XXXXX |
0.00 |
Hyun-Jin_Ryu_LAN |
none |
0 |
Total |
22.51 |
TIER=2.15 |
Around one standard deviation above average lineup.
WAS Lineup Today
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
Pos |
PA |
XXXXX |
1.47 |
Trea_Turner_WAS |
SS |
569 |
XXXXX |
-0.86 |
Adam_Eaton_WAS |
RF |
656 |
+005+ |
8.95 |
Anthony_Rendon_WAS |
3B |
646 |
+020+ |
6.19 |
Juan_Soto_WAS |
LF |
659 |
+085+ |
3.42 |
Howie_Kendrick_WAS |
1B-2B-3B |
370 |
+132+ |
2.56 |
Kurt_Suzuki_WAS |
CR |
309 |
XXXXX |
-1.45 |
Brian_Dozier_WAS |
2B |
482 |
XXXXX |
-1.13 |
Michael_A._Taylor_WAS |
CF |
97 |
XXXXX |
0.00 |
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS |
none |
0 |
Total |
19.15 |
TIER=1.65 |
A slightly less lineup than Dodgers.
Starters
Below is a dump of starters for the four NLDS teams according to our source that publishes roster data.
Braves
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+010+ |
7.35 |
Mike_Soroka_ATL |
174.7 |
+122+ |
2.73 |
Julio_Teheran_ATL |
174.7 |
+187+ |
1.93 |
Dallas_Keuchel_ATL |
112.7 |
XXXXX |
-0.15 |
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL |
117.0 |
Total |
11.86 |
0.592 |
Cardinals
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+007+ |
8.04 |
Jack_Flaherty_SLN |
196.3 |
+048+ |
4.70 |
Dakota_Hudson_SLN |
174.7 |
XXXXX |
1.49 |
Miles_Mikolas_SLN |
184.0 |
XXXXX |
1.24 |
Adam_Wainwright_SLN |
171.7 |
Total |
15.47 |
0.596 |
Dodgers
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+004+ |
9.30 |
Hyun-jin_Ryu_LAN |
182.7 |
+025+ |
6.11 |
Clayton_Kershaw_LAN |
178.3 |
+036+ |
5.27 |
Walker_Buehler_LAN |
182.3 |
+120+ |
2.79 |
Rich_Hill_LAN |
58.7 |
Total |
23.47 |
0.675 |
This is an extremely good rotation which one would expect based on their PITCH in team status.
Nationals
Rank |
WAA |
Name_TeamID |
IP |
|
+017+ |
6.40 |
Max_Scherzer_WAS |
172.3 |
+026+ |
5.96 |
Patrick_Corbin_WAS |
202.0 |
+028+ |
5.88 |
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS |
209.0 |
+128+ |
2.60 |
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS |
166.0 |
Total |
20.84 |
0.625 |
Another very good rotation. Patrick Corbin just got tagged for 6 runs in relief to Sanchez.
That’s all for now. A script generates these posts and I write summary blurbs. Had to wait for lineups and didn’t get to this until late in LAN/WAS game. We’ll just handicap the 4 games tomorrow now that rosters have been covered. Until then ….