This post will simply handicap the 2 ALDS and NLDS games today. Handicapping playoff games is still a work in progress. The model used in TC Simulation is based upon historical regular season games but that’s all we have right now.
The game tables below outline real team WAA, Lineups, Starter, and Relief, values used in simulation. The intensity in desire to win is far greater in post season than regular season. Sometimes teams get beaten down so much in playoffs they just give up, sometimes it makes them try harder. Sometimes great teams simply choke under pressure (hello 2008 Chicago Cubs). This is hard, if not impossible to model.
That said, below are handicapping tables for the 4 games today with comments interspersed where necessary.
LAN WAS 10_07_6:40_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAN | 50 | 0.465 | 0.578 | X | 2.00 | 1.07 | 3.06 |
| WAS | 24 | 0.556 | 0.422 | X | 1.48 | 3.16 | -0.17 |
Vegas has Washington favored, TC Sim the opposite. The rest of the numbers show how TC Sim came up with its estimation. WAS has a starter advantage today and that’s about it.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich_Hill_LAN | 2.79 | 0.714 | 58.7 | 1.07 |
| Max_Scherzer_WAS | 6.40 | 0.667 | 172.3 | 3.16 |
Scherzer is the better starter. Rich Hill didn’t pitch many innings this season. Tiering is not done on rates like Win Percentage nor should it.
ATL SLN 10_07_3:07_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 32 | 0.495 | 0.553 | X | 1.43 | 0.57 | 2.42 |
| SLN | 20 | 0.528 | 0.447 | X | -1.02 | 2.17 | 1.95 |
This is probably where home field advantage kicks in. Cardinals have better starting pitcher. Atlanta has better lineup. Relief around the same.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas_Keuchel_ATL | 1.93 | 0.577 | 112.7 | 0.57 |
| Dakota_Hudson_SLN | 4.70 | 0.621 | 174.7 | 2.17 |
Hudson is Cardinals’ second best starter behind Flaherty. Keuchel’s career years were 2015 and 2017. Since we’re from the future we know Keuchel gave up two runs already in first two innings.
NYA MIN 10_07_8:40_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYA | 44 | 0.592 | 0.501 | X | 2.85 | -0.07 | 2.96 |
| MIN | 40 | 0.444 | 0.499 | X | 2.96 | 1.46 | 3.20 |
Again, on paper these two teams are equal. MIN is down 2-0 after getting slaughtered in New York so they might be in giving up get it over with mode. Vegas has NYA heavily favored almost 3/2 tonight.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis_Severino_NYA | 0.84 | 0.815 | 12.0 | -0.07 |
| Jake_Odorizzi_MIN | 3.46 | 0.598 | 159.0 | 1.46 |
With only 12 innings pitched by Severino, this game would be disqualified for handicapping in regular season.
HOU TBA 10_07_1:05_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 52 | 0.545 | 0.639 | X | 3.21 | 3.71 | 3.46 |
| TBA | 30 | 0.476 | 0.361 | X | -0.82 | 3.04 | 1.72 |
Since we’re from the future we know TBA is up 9-3 in the 6th. This is probably an example where home field advantage comes into play for playoffs.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack_Greinke_TOT | 7.35 | 0.658 | 208.7 | 3.71 |
| Charlie_Morton_TBA | 6.19 | 0.643 | 194.7 | 3.04 |
Two top shelf pitchers pitching today and it looks like the over won on this game already. Baseball outcomes can be funny sometimes. Data like this is also not evaluated by TC Simulation in post season either.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -081- | -1.47 | 75.7 | 4.40 | 13 | 3 | Zack_Greinke_TOT | PITCH | post season |
Grienke had a rough go of it in post season and today he gave up 6 runs in 3 2/3 innings which will sink him even further into the playoff abyss.
That is all for now. Historical playoff data to compare with the current crop of contenders coming soon. More handicapping tomorrow. Until then ….