Divisional Series Handicapping

This post will simply handicap the 2 ALDS and NLDS games today.   Handicapping playoff games is still a work in progress.  The model used in TC Simulation is based upon historical regular season games but that’s all we have right now.

The game tables below outline  real team WAA, Lineups, Starter, and Relief, values used in simulation.   The intensity in desire to win is far greater in post season than regular season.  Sometimes teams get beaten down so much in playoffs they just give up, sometimes it makes them try harder.  Sometimes great teams simply choke under pressure (hello 2008 Chicago Cubs).   This is hard, if not impossible to model.

That said, below are handicapping tables for the 4 games today with comments interspersed where necessary.

LAN WAS 10_07_6:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 50 0.465 0.578 X 2.00 1.07 3.06
WAS 24 0.556 0.422 X 1.48 3.16 -0.17

Vegas has Washington favored, TC Sim the opposite.  The rest of the numbers show how TC Sim came up with its estimation.  WAS has a starter advantage today and that’s about it.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Rich_Hill_LAN 2.79 0.714 58.7 1.07
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16

Scherzer is the better starter.  Rich Hill didn’t pitch many innings this season.  Tiering is not done on rates like Win Percentage nor should it.

ATL SLN 10_07_3:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
ATL 32 0.495 0.553 X 1.43 0.57 2.42
SLN 20 0.528 0.447 X -1.02 2.17 1.95

This is probably where home field advantage kicks in.  Cardinals have better starting pitcher.  Atlanta has better lineup.  Relief around the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dallas_Keuchel_ATL 1.93 0.577 112.7 0.57
Dakota_Hudson_SLN 4.70 0.621 174.7 2.17

Hudson is Cardinals’ second best starter behind Flaherty.  Keuchel’s career years were 2015 and 2017.  Since we’re from the future we know Keuchel gave up two runs already in first two innings.

NYA MIN 10_07_8:40_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.592 0.501 X 2.85 -0.07 2.96
MIN 40 0.444 0.499 X 2.96 1.46 3.20

Again, on paper these two teams are equal.  MIN is down 2-0 after getting slaughtered in New York so they might be in giving up get it over with mode.  Vegas has NYA heavily favored almost 3/2 tonight.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Luis_Severino_NYA 0.84 0.815 12.0 -0.07
Jake_Odorizzi_MIN 3.46 0.598 159.0 1.46

With only 12 innings pitched by Severino,  this game would be disqualified for handicapping in regular season.

HOU TBA 10_07_1:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.545 0.639 X 3.21 3.71 3.46
TBA 30 0.476 0.361 X -0.82 3.04 1.72

Since we’re from the future we know TBA is up 9-3 in the 6th.  This is probably an example where home field advantage comes into play for playoffs.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71
Charlie_Morton_TBA 6.19 0.643 194.7 3.04

Two top shelf pitchers pitching today and it looks like the over won on this game already.  Baseball outcomes can be funny sometimes.  Data like this is also not evaluated by TC Simulation in post season either.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH post season

Grienke had a rough go of it in post season and today he gave up 6 runs in 3 2/3 innings which will sink him even further into the playoff abyss.

That is all for now.  Historical playoff data to compare with the current crop of contenders coming soon.  More handicapping tomorrow.  Until then ….