ALDS Game 4

ALDS game 4 in a few minutes. Let’s look at what this data model thinks.

HOU TBA 10_08_7:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.706 0.667 94 2.91 4.00 3.46
TBA 30 0.323 0.333 103 -1.40 0.38 1.72

TC Sim has HOU at exactly 2-1 or 2/3 which is exactly where ELO has them tonight as well.  After perusing ELO it appears Nate might be predicting this post season better so far but it’s still early.  We’re also working on leads into how to refine this model for the playoffs and regular season.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00
Diego_Castillo_TBA 1.62 0.606 68.7 0.38

Verlander, the #1 player in MLB, both BAT and PITCH, pitches on short rest.  The only thing TBA has going for them is playing at home and how that affects L, S, and R  for playoffs is still a work in progress.  More on this later when we do post mortem.

Tomorrow there are two NLDS game 5s to cover.  Until then ….