NLDS Game 5

We covered rosters and lineups for all teams in these two NLDS Game 5s today so let’s just look at the game tables for today.

WAS LAN 10_09_8:37_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.392 0.412 105 1.38 2.86 -0.17
LAN 50 0.630 0.588 93 2.29 2.50 3.06

Vegas has Dodgers favored a little more than TC Sim.  ELO has LAN 59% favorites, exactly what TC Sim calculated.  If home field advantage was incorporated TC Sim would move towards the 63% what Vegas predicts.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.86
Walker_Buehler_LAN 5.27 0.630 182.3 2.50

Starters around equal although WAR ranks Strasburg #15 and Buehler #187.

SLN ATL 10_09_5:02_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.512 0.478 93 -1.33 4.00 1.95
ATL 32 0.512 0.522 102 1.22 -0.64 2.42

Vegas is at a don’t know flip a coin for this game.  TC Sim agrees.  According to where Vegas data comes from that line started out around 3-1 in favor of ATL and moved to even steven.  That could be an error in Vegas data source however.  Errors are not exclusive to this log book.  🙂

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Mike_Foltynewicz_ATL -0.15 0.494 117.0 -0.64

This model has Flaherty ranked #7 in MLB, WAR has him #21.   Both models have Foltynewicz unranked so SLN has a very large advantage in pitching which makes up for their large disadvantage in hitting.

That’s all for now.  Unbelievably Houston has to play a game 5 tomorrow.  With a rotation consisting of 3 starters in  top ten and a top of MLB lineup proves that no one can predict the future — unless you’re from the future.  Houston handicapping tomorrow and then we’re on to ALCS and NLCS.  Until then ….