NLDS Game 1

League Championships start tonight with NLDS Game 1 in about 10 minutes.

WAS SLN 10_11_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.476 0.552 X 2.54 0.96 -0.17
SLN 20 0.565 0.448 X -0.04 0.31 1.95

Vegas has Cardinals favored, TC Sim has WAS favored.  Vegas was in complete agreement with TC Sim at the start of the day and then moved towards Cardinals.  TC Sim does not take home field advantage into account right now.  The playoff version of TC Sim is still a work in progress.

Note: According to ELO SLN will be pitching their two best pitchers in Washington.  The strategy here could be that home field suppresses hitting so SLN are saving their aces for away games.  Something to look into in off season.

Washington has a better lineup, Cardinals better relief, WAA and Starter about the same.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 0.96
Miles_Mikolas_SLN 1.49 0.536 184.0 0.31

And above are your about the same starters.  Sanchez had a extremely tumultuous career and was terrible 2015-2017.  He ranked #45 in 2018 and #128 this season.  WAR has him ranked #112.

Nationals Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX -1.13 Michael_A._Taylor_WAS CF 97
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
XXXXX 0.00 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS none 0
Total 17.22 TIER=2.54

That’s a very good lineup.  Not as good as HOU, MIN, or NYA put up but well above one complete standard deviation above league average.  BTW: Lineup tier calculation has been fixed.  Took one line of code.

Cardinals Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
-158- -1.81 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 492
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Miles_Mikolas_SLN none 0
Total 2.66 TIER=-0.04

That’s pretty much a league average lineup based upon current MLB lineups at end of September.  Not much more to say about that.  Game starts in 2 minutes.

A complete roster run down and playoff horse race when we get all four playoff roster.  Until then ….