ALCS NLCS Handicapping

Today we’ll just show handicapping for ALCS and NLCS.  Playoff rosters and horse race tables tomorrow.

WAS SLN 10_12_4:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.565 0.582 102 3.15 3.16 -0.17
SLN 20 0.455 0.418 92 -0.04 0.16 1.95

Washington more heavily favored by TC Sim than Vegas but both in the same ballpark pun intended.  L, S, and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.16
Adam_Wainwright_SLN 1.24 0.532 171.7 0.16

Scherzer is a top tier pitcher, Wainwright is just average.

Update 8th inning:  Andrew Miller just came in to relieve Wainwright and got two outs.  Miller has playoff experience so I looked him up.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+053+ 2.12 38.0 1.18 0 26 Andrew_Miller_TOT PITCH

Ranked #53 of all MLB players who played in playoffs since 1903.  Not bad.  Need to incorporate this into TC Sim somehow.

NYA HOU 10_12_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.417 0.437 105 4.00 -0.41 2.96
HOU 52 0.600 0.563 93 4.00 3.71 3.46

Vegas and TC Sim pretty much in agreement.  Two maxed out Tier 4.00 lineups in this game.  HOU has much better starter and both relief squads very good — as one would expect from two teams competing for a pennant.

Note: Lineup values taken from each team’s last game because they won’t be released until later.  I do not expect either lineup to drop below Tier 4.00.  Tomorrow we’ll show these lineups in detail.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 0.25 0.506 182.0 -0.41
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.71

According to this season Greinke is a far better pitcher.  According to post season however …

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+027+ 2.69 50.0 1.26 8 1 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH

Tanaka is the superior pitcher by far.  TC Sim uses regular season stats and Vegas bettors probably don’t know about the above.  Dave Roberts certainly didn’t know how bad Kershaw was in playoff situations which is the reason Washington is playing in NLCS today.

That’s all.  NLCS already started, top of 2nd 0-0.  Playoff horse race and complete roster analysis for all four teams tomorrow.  Until then ….