2019 Playoff Horse Race Part 12

Now that we have all four playoff rosters here’s another edition of the playoff horse race series.  We’ll start with ELO, then this model, then WAR.elo10132019
I do not know how ELO is calculated.  Astros took a big hit however.


TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 71.2 31.5 26.7 13.0 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4
NYA 44 45.3 31.6 3.5 10.1 11.4
SLN 20 25.1 -0.3 15.5 10.0 6.4

This data model still has HOU #1.  Valuation  for WAA and WAR tables are done using regular season results.  As always, the UR columns mean unearned runs above average, measured in runs.  All other columns are measured in wins.  It is interesting to note that all these teams have positive UR.  LAN and ATL had high negative UR and were bounced.  Not sure what this means right now but it’s something to look into in off season.  Currently UR is not incorporated in TC Sim.


TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 72.6 42.5 20.3 9.8 14.4
WAS 24 52.3 26.2 21.5 4.6 18.4
NYA 44 46.9 33.2 4.5 9.2 11.4
SLN 20 39.9 23.4 11.7 4.8 6.4

I’m pretty sure the above isn’t an error but not completely sure right now.   Total WAR is eerily close to Total WAA for each of these teams.  The two systems differ somewhat in the other categories.  Total is Hitters + Starters + Relief in each of these tables.  UR is shown for informational purposes only.

That is all for now.  ALDS Handicapping next.  Today will be a a rare two posts in a single day day.  Until then ….