ALCS Game 2 tonight at 7pc CST. Let’s look at these two teams in detail and we’ll cover the NLCS teams in detail tomorrow.
NYA HOU 10_13_8:08_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYA | 44 | 0.397 | 0.443 | X | 4.00 | 0.87 | 3.18 |
| HOU | 52 | 0.623 | 0.557 | X | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.28 |
Vegas has Houston favored far higher than TC Sim. ELO has HOU favored 57% so almost exactly what this model came up with. The L , S , and R columns show why.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James_Paxton_NYA | 2.42 | 0.572 | 150.7 | 0.87 |
| Justin_Verlander_HOU | 9.70 | 0.696 | 223.0 | 4.00 |
Verlander much better pitcher in regular season. Here’s his post season stats.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +033+ | 2.50 | 189.0 | 3.00 | 29 | 4 | Justin_Verlander_TOT | PITCH |
Ranked #33 best in post season history which means very consistent. This may be why Vegas has HOU so high today.
NYA Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +059+ | 4.03 | Adam_Ottavino_NYA | 66.3 | |
| +073+ | 3.72 | Zack_Britton_NYA | 61.3 | |
| +107+ | 3.07 | Aroldis_Chapman_NYA | 57.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.20 | Tommy_Kahnle_NYA | 61.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Luis_Cessa_NYA | 81.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.55 | Chad_Green_NYA | 69.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA | 31.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.55 | Tyler_Lyons_NYA | 12.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.11 | CC_Sabathia_NYA | 107.3 | |
| XXXXX | -1.51 | J.A._Happ_NYA | 161.3 | |
| Total | 10.14 | TIER=3.18 |
That’s 10 relievers. Only top 8 are counted for simulation purposes.
HOU Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +056+ | 4.14 | Will_Harris_HOU | 60.0 | |
| +121+ | 2.75 | Roberto_Osuna_HOU | 65.0 | |
| +123+ | 2.69 | Ryan_Pressly_HOU | 54.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.55 | Joe_Smith_HOU | 25.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Hector_Rondon_HOU | 60.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Brad_Peacock_HOU | 91.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Jose_Urquidy_HOU | 41.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0 | Bryan_Abreu | 0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Josh_James_HOU | 61.3 | |
| Total | 12.99 | TIER=3.28 |
Houston stocked up on relievers as well. In a 7 game series having many relievers is probably necessary and in the Managing Baseball 101 set of rules for playoffs.
Don’t want to wait for current lineups to become available so here’s yesterday’s lineups which may be identical to what comes out later today.
NYA Lineup Yesterday
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +035+ | 5.29 | DJ_LeMahieu_NYA | 2B-3B-1B | 655 |
| +172+ | 2.14 | Aaron_Judge_NYA | RF-DH | 447 |
| +062+ | 3.97 | Gleyber_Torres_NYA | SS-2B | 604 |
| +043+ | 4.96 | Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA | 1B-DH | 486 |
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA | LF | 72 |
| +126+ | 2.65 | Brett_Gardner_NYA | CF-LF | 550 |
| +104+ | 3.11 | Gary_Sanchez_NYA | CR-DH | 446 |
| +099+ | 3.17 | Gio_Urshela_NYA | 3B | 476 |
| +142+ | 2.48 | Didi_Gregorius_NYA | SS | 344 |
| Total | 28.13 | TIER=4.00 |
Every player but one ranked in top 200 which is incredible. Yankees had similar playoff lineups last season. Oh, and that Gleyber Torres. I hear he’s only 22.
Update top of 4th: Yankees up 2-1. Just noticed the but in every player but is none other than former MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The plate appearance column is provided to show time. With only 72 PAs Stanton hasn’t played much this season. At 447 PAs Judge must have been out as well. This is quite an amazing hitting squad NYA put together. And did we mention Gleybar Torres is only 22 years old?
HOU Lineup Yesterday
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 6.17 | George_Springer_HOU | CF-RF-DH | 556 |
| +124+ | 2.67 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 637 |
| +089+ | 3.34 | Jose_Altuve_HOU | 2B | 548 |
| +011+ | 7.22 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B-SS | 690 |
| +042+ | 5.00 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | DH-LF | 369 |
| +052+ | 4.45 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B-3B | 612 |
| +137+ | 2.54 | Carlos_Correa_HOU | SS | 321 |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Kyle_Tucker_HOU | LF-RF | 72 |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Robinson_Chirinos_HOU | CR | 437 |
| Total | 33.40 | TIER=4.00 |
This is also a rock ’em sock ’em lineup. Both lineups maxed out at Tier 4.00 which will probably continue throughout ALCS and WS for one of these teams.
That is all for now. NLCS tomorrow. Until then ….