ALCS Game 2

ALCS Game 2 tonight at 7pc CST.  Let’s look at these two teams in detail and we’ll cover the NLCS teams in detail tomorrow.

NYA HOU 10_13_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.397 0.443 X 4.00 0.87 3.18
HOU 52 0.623 0.557 X 4.00 4.00 3.28

Vegas has Houston favored far higher than TC Sim.  ELO has HOU favored 57% so almost exactly what this model came up with.  The L , S , and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.87
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander much better pitcher in regular season.  Here’s his post season stats.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH

Ranked #33 best in post season history which means very consistent.  This may be why Vegas has HOU so high today.

NYA Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+059+ 4.03 Adam_Ottavino_NYA 66.3
+073+ 3.72 Zack_Britton_NYA 61.3
+107+ 3.07 Aroldis_Chapman_NYA 57.0
XXXXX 1.20 Tommy_Kahnle_NYA 61.3
XXXXX 0.76 Luis_Cessa_NYA 81.0
XXXXX 0.55 Chad_Green_NYA 69.0
XXXXX -0.02 Jonathan_Loaisiga_NYA 31.7
XXXXX -0.55 Tyler_Lyons_NYA 12.7
XXXXX -1.11 CC_Sabathia_NYA 107.3
XXXXX -1.51 J.A._Happ_NYA 161.3
Total 10.14 TIER=3.18

That’s 10 relievers.  Only top 8 are counted for simulation purposes.

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+056+ 4.14 Will_Harris_HOU 60.0
+121+ 2.75 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 65.0
+123+ 2.69 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 54.3
XXXXX 1.55 Joe_Smith_HOU 25.0
XXXXX 1.05 Hector_Rondon_HOU 60.7
XXXXX 0.69 Brad_Peacock_HOU 91.7
XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU 41.0
XXXXX 0 Bryan_Abreu 0
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_James_HOU 61.3
Total 12.99 TIER=3.28

Houston stocked up on relievers as well.  In a 7 game series having many relievers is probably necessary and in the Managing Baseball 101 set of rules for playoffs.

Don’t want to wait for current lineups to become available so here’s yesterday’s lineups which may be identical to what comes out later today.

NYA Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
XXXXX 0.36 Giancarlo_Stanton_NYA LF 72
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
Total 28.13 TIER=4.00

Every player but one ranked in top 200 which is incredible.  Yankees had similar playoff lineups last season.  Oh, and that Gleyber Torres.  I hear he’s only 22.

Update top of 4th:  Yankees up 2-1.  Just noticed the but in every player but is none other than former MVP  Giancarlo Stanton.  The plate appearance column is provided to show time.  With only 72 PAs Stanton hasn’t played much this season.  At 447 PAs Judge must have been out as well.   This is quite an amazing hitting squad NYA put together.  And did we mention Gleybar Torres is only 22 years old?

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 0.92 Kyle_Tucker_HOU LF-RF 72
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
Total 33.40 TIER=4.00

This is also a rock ’em sock ’em lineup.  Both lineups maxed out at Tier 4.00 which will probably continue throughout ALCS and WS for one of these teams.

That is all for now.  NLCS tomorrow.  Until then ….