NLCS Game 3

NLCS Game 3 tonight in Washington.  Let’s look at these two teams in more detail.

SLN WAS 10_14_7:38_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.455 0.455 100 -0.04 4.00 2.12
WAS 24 0.565 0.545 96 3.15 2.91 0.30

Vegas and TC Sim in agreement.  ELO has WAS at 55% as well.  L , S , and R columns show why.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Jack_Flaherty_SLN 8.04 0.684 196.3 4.00
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.91

Flahertry is a maxed out Tier 4.00 pitcher.  Strasburg extremely good in regular season and playoff season.  Here is his post season record.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH  post season

Ranked #30 of all players, both Batters and Pitchers in post season history.  The above doesn’t include this season.  Babe Ruth is ranked #10 in this list, Mariano Rivera #1.  Flaherty doesn’t have a post season record.

SLN Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+068+ 3.78 Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN 74.0
XXXXX 1.55 John_Brebbia_SLN 72.7
XXXXX 1.51 Carlos_Martinez_SLN 48.3
XXXXX 1.34 Ryan_Helsley_SLN 36.7
XXXXX 0.94 Tyler_Webb_SLN 55.0
XXXXX 0.92 Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN 48.7
XXXXX 0.08 Andrew_Miller_SLN 54.7
XXXXX -0.17 Genesis_Cabrera_SLN 20.3
Total 9.95 TIER=2.12

Cardinals carrying 8 relievers as opposed to the 9 and 10 HOU and NYA had yesterday.  At Tier 2.12 this relief staff is one complete standard deviation above league average but below HOU and NYA.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX 0.65 Roenis_Elias_WAS 50.0
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 67.7
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 5.23 TIER=0.30

This is the weakest relief staff of the 4 remaining teams.  It’s just barely above league average.  Daniel Hudson is good but he can’t pitch all innings in relief.  Washington has been using Corbin who is listed as a starter in relief.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.69 Dexter_Fowler_SLN RF-CF 574
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
XXXXX -0.59 Jose_Martinez_SLN RF 373
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX 0.00 Jack_Flaherty_SLN none 0
Total 3.88 TIER=-0.04

This is an average lineup for regular season and below average among playoff teams.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX 0.00 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS none 0
Total 21.81 TIER=3.36

This lineup isn’t as good as what we saw yesterday from HOU and NYA but still very good; more than 1.5 standard deviations above league average.  Lineups face opposing teams pitching and not other lineups.

Starters

Cardinals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+007+ 8.04 Jack_Flaherty_SLN 196.3
+048+ 4.70 Dakota_Hudson_SLN 174.7
XXXXX 1.49 Miles_Mikolas_SLN 184.0
XXXXX 1.24 Adam_Wainwright_SLN 171.7
Total 15.47 0.596

Pitching is what won NL Central for the Cardinals.  For starters tiering is done on individual pitchers not an entire staff.  The 0.596 ratio is a calculated Win Percentage for this entire staff which provides context to the 15.47 WAA sum.  For more information on how this sausage is made click here.

Nationals

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

At 0.625 Win% means the Nationals’ starting rotation is a little better than Cardinals but not by much.

That is all for now.  Upcoming games will be handicapped.  Maybe we’ll dive into historical playoff handicapping to provided context.  Until then ….