NLCS Game 3 tonight in Washington. Let’s look at these two teams in more detail.
SLN WAS 10_14_7:38_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 20 | 0.455 | 0.455 | 100 | -0.04 | 4.00 | 2.12 |
| WAS | 24 | 0.565 | 0.545 | 96 | 3.15 | 2.91 | 0.30 |
Vegas and TC Sim in agreement. ELO has WAS at 55% as well. L , S , and R columns show why.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 8.04 | 0.684 | 196.3 | 4.00 |
| Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 5.88 | 0.627 | 209.0 | 2.91 |
Flahertry is a maxed out Tier 4.00 pitcher. Strasburg extremely good in regular season and playoff season. Here is his post season record.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +030+ | 2.54 | 33.0 | 0.27 | 5 | 1 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | PITCH | post season |
Ranked #30 of all players, both Batters and Pitchers in post season history. The above doesn’t include this season. Babe Ruth is ranked #10 in this list, Mariano Rivera #1. Flaherty doesn’t have a post season record.
SLN Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +068+ | 3.78 | Giovanny_Gallegos_SLN | 74.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.55 | John_Brebbia_SLN | 72.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.51 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | 48.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.34 | Ryan_Helsley_SLN | 36.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.94 | Tyler_Webb_SLN | 55.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.92 | Daniel_Ponce_de_Leon_SLN | 48.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Andrew_Miller_SLN | 54.7 | |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Genesis_Cabrera_SLN | 20.3 | |
| Total | 9.95 | TIER=2.12 |
Cardinals carrying 8 relievers as opposed to the 9 and 10 HOU and NYA had yesterday. At Tier 2.12 this relief staff is one complete standard deviation above league average but below HOU and NYA.
WAS Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +079+ | 3.51 | Daniel_Hudson_WAS | 73.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Austin_Voth_WAS | 43.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Tanner_Rainey_WAS | 48.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Sean_Doolittle_WAS | 60.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Roenis_Elias_WAS | 50.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Javy_Guerra_WAS | 67.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.30 | Fernando_Rodney_WAS | 47.7 | |
| Total | 5.23 | TIER=0.30 |
This is the weakest relief staff of the 4 remaining teams. It’s just barely above league average. Daniel Hudson is good but he can’t pitch all innings in relief. Washington has been using Corbin who is listed as a starter in relief.
SLN Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Dexter_Fowler_SLN | RF-CF | 574 |
| -174- | -1.72 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 549 |
| +129+ | 2.58 | Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN | 1B | 682 |
| +084+ | 3.42 | Marcell_Ozuna_SLN | LF | 549 |
| XXXXX | -1.07 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | CR | 452 |
| XXXXX | -0.59 | Jose_Martinez_SLN | RF | 373 |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Tommy_Edman_SLN | 3B-2B-RF | 349 |
| XXXXX | 1.07 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 664 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | none | 0 |
| Total | 3.88 | TIER=-0.04 |
This is an average lineup for regular season and below average among playoff teams.
WAS Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.47 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 569 |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF | 656 |
| +005+ | 8.95 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 646 |
| +020+ | 6.19 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 659 |
| +085+ | 3.42 | Howie_Kendrick_WAS | 1B-2B-3B | 370 |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS | 1B | 190 |
| +132+ | 2.56 | Kurt_Suzuki_WAS | CR | 309 |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Victor_Robles_WAS | CF-RF | 617 |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | none | 0 |
| Total | 21.81 | TIER=3.36 |
This lineup isn’t as good as what we saw yesterday from HOU and NYA but still very good; more than 1.5 standard deviations above league average. Lineups face opposing teams pitching and not other lineups.
Starters
Cardinals
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +007+ | 8.04 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | 196.3 | |
| +048+ | 4.70 | Dakota_Hudson_SLN | 174.7 | |
| XXXXX | 1.49 | Miles_Mikolas_SLN | 184.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Adam_Wainwright_SLN | 171.7 | |
| Total | 15.47 | 0.596 |
Pitching is what won NL Central for the Cardinals. For starters tiering is done on individual pitchers not an entire staff. The 0.596 ratio is a calculated Win Percentage for this entire staff which provides context to the 15.47 WAA sum. For more information on how this sausage is made click here.
Nationals
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +017+ | 6.40 | Max_Scherzer_WAS | 172.3 | |
| +026+ | 5.96 | Patrick_Corbin_WAS | 202.0 | |
| +028+ | 5.88 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 209.0 | |
| +128+ | 2.60 | Anibal_Sanchez_WAS | 166.0 | |
| Total | 20.84 | 0.625 |
At 0.625 Win% means the Nationals’ starting rotation is a little better than Cardinals but not by much.
That is all for now. Upcoming games will be handicapped. Maybe we’ll dive into historical playoff handicapping to provided context. Until then ….