NLCS Game 4

NLCS Game 4 tonight.  Let’s look at Handicapping for this game.

SLN WAS 10_15_8:05_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN 20 0.400 0.432 X 0.17 2.22 2.12
WAS 24 0.615 0.568 X 3.36 2.95 0.30

TC Sim has this game less favored for WAS than Vegas.  At 0-3 it’s pretty much over for the Cardinals.  Winning the next 4 games is around a 4% chance given they’re usually an underdog based on roster value and in Vegas.  The easiest path for a team in this situation is get it over with quickly and go home.  Situations like this are difficult if not impossible to model mathematically.  ELO has WAS at 63%.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dakota_Hudson_SLN 4.70 0.621 174.7 2.22
Patrick_Corbin_WAS 5.96 0.633 202.0 2.95

These two starters are fairly equal in capability.

Update 10/16:  Since we’re from the future we know Patrick Corbin gives up 4 runs over 5 innings pitched in this game.  He gave up 6 runs in relief earlier which means the start of his post season career isn’t going well.  If Corbin is a dud in the playoff that will hurt Washington’s chances in World Series because they’ll need 4 starters.

Here are published lineups for tonight.

SLN Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.88 Tommy_Edman_SLN 3B-2B-RF 349
XXXXX -0.59 Jose_Martinez_SLN RF 373
+129+ 2.58 Paul_Goldschmidt_SLN 1B 682
+084+ 3.42 Marcell_Ozuna_SLN LF 549
XXXXX -1.07 Yadier_Molina_SLN CR 452
XXXXX 1.07 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 664
XXXXX -0.82 Harrison_Bader_SLN CF 406
-174- -1.72 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 549
XXXXX 0.00 Dakota_Hudson_SLN none 0
Total 3.75 TIER=0.15

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
XXXXX 0.00 Patrick_Corbin_WAS none 0
Total 18.37 TIER=2.74

This is a very good lineup but will be over 1 tier below either what Yankees or Astros can produce.

NLCS is over if WAS wins tonight.  Historical post season coming soon.  Until then ….