ALCS Game 5

ALCS Game 5 tonight.  Starters for these two teams met in ALCS Game 2 which HOU won in 11 innings.

HOU NYA 10_18_7:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.592 0.557 94 4.00 4.00 3.28
NYA 44 0.426 0.443 104 4.00 0.87 3.18

Houston has a maxed out Tier 4.00 pitcher starting.  Lineup and Relief about even between each team.   Vegas has Houston favored more than TC Sim in this game.  Yankees on the ropes here so their desperation is high.  TC Sim currently does not incorporate home field advantage.  Not sure how much that pushes EV up for NYA but probably not enough to make this a betting opportunity.

Note: ELO has HOU favored by 51%.  Vegas started the day with Yankees favored at 56%.  At 8 AM the line was 57% Yankees and at 10 AM it swung to where it is above.  This could have been a data entry mistake by our Vegas data source.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00
James_Paxton_NYA 2.42 0.572 150.7 0.87

These two met in Game 2.  Paxton got pulled in 3rd after giving up a run.  Verlander pitched almost 7 giving up 2 runs.  Both good playoff numbers.  Paxton doesn’t have a post season record yet.  Here is Verlander’s again.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH  post season

Verlander very good, ranked #33 of all players in post season from 1903 to 2018.  Below are the maxed out Tier 4.00 lineups for both teams yesterday ( these should be similar to today’s lineups ).

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00

Normally I hand color these in WordPress but there’s too much coloring bold blue in both these lineups.

NYA Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
XXXXX 1.51 Aaron_Hicks_NYA CF 255
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
Total 29.28 TIER=4.00

Both lineups almost identical in value at +30 and both in the top 15 strongest lineups in league championship series history since MLB started playing league championships in 1969.