ALCS Game 5 tonight. Starters for these two teams met in ALCS Game 2 which HOU won in 11 innings.
HOU NYA 10_18_7:08_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 52 | 0.592 | 0.557 | 94 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.28 |
| NYA | 44 | 0.426 | 0.443 | 104 | 4.00 | 0.87 | 3.18 |
Houston has a maxed out Tier 4.00 pitcher starting. Lineup and Relief about even between each team. Vegas has Houston favored more than TC Sim in this game. Yankees on the ropes here so their desperation is high. TC Sim currently does not incorporate home field advantage. Not sure how much that pushes EV up for NYA but probably not enough to make this a betting opportunity.
Note: ELO has HOU favored by 51%. Vegas started the day with Yankees favored at 56%. At 8 AM the line was 57% Yankees and at 10 AM it swung to where it is above. This could have been a data entry mistake by our Vegas data source.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin_Verlander_HOU | 9.70 | 0.696 | 223.0 | 4.00 |
| James_Paxton_NYA | 2.42 | 0.572 | 150.7 | 0.87 |
These two met in Game 2. Paxton got pulled in 3rd after giving up a run. Verlander pitched almost 7 giving up 2 runs. Both good playoff numbers. Paxton doesn’t have a post season record yet. Here is Verlander’s again.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +033+ | 2.50 | 189.0 | 3.00 | 29 | 4 | Justin_Verlander_TOT | PITCH | post season |
Verlander very good, ranked #33 of all players in post season from 1903 to 2018. Below are the maxed out Tier 4.00 lineups for both teams yesterday ( these should be similar to today’s lineups ).
HOU Lineup Yesterday
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 6.17 | George_Springer_HOU | CF-RF-DH | 556 |
| +089+ | 3.34 | Jose_Altuve_HOU | 2B | 548 |
| +124+ | 2.67 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 637 |
| +011+ | 7.22 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B-SS | 690 |
| +052+ | 4.45 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B-3B | 612 |
| +042+ | 5.00 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | DH-LF | 369 |
| +137+ | 2.54 | Carlos_Correa_HOU | SS | 321 |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Robinson_Chirinos_HOU | CR | 437 |
| -137- | -1.97 | Josh_Reddick_HOU | RF-LF | 550 |
| Total | 30.51 | TIER=4.00 |
Normally I hand color these in WordPress but there’s too much coloring bold blue in both these lineups.
NYA Lineup Yesterday
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +035+ | 5.29 | DJ_LeMahieu_NYA | 2B-3B-1B | 655 |
| +172+ | 2.14 | Aaron_Judge_NYA | RF-DH | 447 |
| XXXXX | 1.51 | Aaron_Hicks_NYA | CF | 255 |
| +062+ | 3.97 | Gleyber_Torres_NYA | SS-2B | 604 |
| +043+ | 4.96 | Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA | 1B-DH | 486 |
| +126+ | 2.65 | Brett_Gardner_NYA | CF-LF | 550 |
| +104+ | 3.11 | Gary_Sanchez_NYA | CR-DH | 446 |
| +099+ | 3.17 | Gio_Urshela_NYA | 3B | 476 |
| +142+ | 2.48 | Didi_Gregorius_NYA | SS | 344 |
| Total | 29.28 | TIER=4.00 |
Both lineups almost identical in value at +30 and both in the top 15 strongest lineups in league championship series history since MLB started playing league championships in 1969.