ALCS Game 6

ALCS Game 6 tonight.  No travel day due to the rain out. Let’s see what the odds makers are up to.

NYA HOU 10_19_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
NYA 44 0.444 0.473 106 4.00 -0.22 3.18
HOU 52 0.574 0.527 92 4.00 -0.26 3.28

TC Sim and Vegas pretty much in agreement.  Home field advantage would move TC Sim even closer to Vegas.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Chad_Green_NYA 0.55 0.536 69.0 -0.22
Jose_Urquidy_HOU 0.48 0.553 41.0 -0.26

Update 1st inning: Brad Peacock started for HOU.  This changed sometime after 4pm.  Doesn’t affect TC Sim since Peacock and Urquidy are around equal in value this season.

Now this is interesting.  Both of the above starters are listed as relievers which means both teams tonight are using what they call openers — a very recent managerial strategy.  The opener gets the top of the lineup out early allowing the real starter to work the bottom part of the lineup first.  Like closers and other relievers, openers can theoretically pitch many games in a row.

This causes a problem for the way TC Sim works in estimating probabilities.  The dataset used for drawing numbers is based upon traditional starter value.  The above shows two below average pitchers as starters.  As relievers they are above average and add value to their team’s relief staff.

Not sure how Vegas is handling this but there are ways of estimating  real starters and that is something which will need to be done.  It doesn’t happen much now where it would poison the dataset but this strategy could become more ubiquitous in the future.  This might be the first time it has been done in post season.  Let’s look at the long form record of these two relievers starting tonight.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 0.55 69.0 4.17 15 39 Chad_Green_NYA PITCH
XXXXX 0.48 41.0 3.95 7 2 Jose_Urquidy_HOU PITCH

Green started 15 games so Yankees have done this many times before.  If you add Games Start (Gs) and Game Relief (Gr) ; Green pitched a little more than 1 inning per game appearance.  It looks like Urquidy may have actually pitched in a traditional starting role for Astros.  He’s almost 5 IP per game appearance.  Maybe he could be considered a long opener or something like that.  Urquidy started this season in AA.

Year Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos WinPct League Age
2019 XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU PITCH XXX mlb
2019 +078+ 2.25 Jose_Urquidy_HOU PITCH 0.732 aaa 24
2019 XXXXX -0.32 Jose_Urquidy_HOU PITCH 0.456 aa 24

Here are Starting rotations for both teams.

NYA Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+149+ 2.42 James_Paxton_NYA 150.7
XXXXX 0.84 Luis_Severino_NYA 12.0
XXXXX 0.25 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA 182.0
Total 3.51 0.546

Looks like both HOU and NYA went with 3 starters while WAS and SLN used 4.  One would think a team would need at least 4 in a 7 game series.  Severino pitched 4 days ago, Tanaka 2 days ago, and Paxton yesterday.  Ruh roh for tomorrow.

HOU Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+001+ 9.70 Justin_Verlander_HOU 223.0
+002+ 9.64 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 212.3
+009+ 7.35 Zack_Greinke_HOU 208.7
Total 26.69 0.686

Verlander pitched yesterday, Greinke two days ago, Cole 4 days ago.  If Cole is the real starter tonight TC Sim will shift towards HOU significantly.

The opener concept needs more study.  I haven’t seen the Cubs or any NL team Cubs played this season do this.   AL teams may be doing this quite frequently however.  Right now we have nothing in the code that detects this nor a way to estimate the real starter.  More on this later.

NYA Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+035+ 5.29 DJ_LeMahieu_NYA 2B-3B-1B 655
+172+ 2.14 Aaron_Judge_NYA RF-DH 447
+062+ 3.97 Gleyber_Torres_NYA SS-2B 604
XXXXX 1.51 Aaron_Hicks_NYA CF 255
+043+ 4.96 Edwin_Encarnacion_NYA 1B-DH 486
+142+ 2.48 Didi_Gregorius_NYA SS 344
+104+ 3.11 Gary_Sanchez_NYA CR-DH 446
+099+ 3.17 Gio_Urshela_NYA 3B 476
+126+ 2.65 Brett_Gardner_NYA CF-LF 550
Total 29.28 TIER=4.00

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
-133- -2.08 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 374
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 27.34 TIER=4.00

That’s all for now.  Until then ….