World Series Game 1 tonight in Houston.
Playoff Horse Race — The End
| TeamID | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | UR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 52 | 70.6 | 31.5 | 26.7 | 12.4 | 14.4 |
| WAS | 24 | 51.0 | 24.9 | 20.9 | 5.2 | 18.4 |
This is the final edition of playoff horse race for 2019. Looks like HOU is better in each category. Both teams have very positive UR which means good fielding. There probably won’t be many stupid errors that lose a game but strange things sometimes happen in a World Series however.
WAS HOU 10_22_8:08_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 24 | 0.364 | 0.385 | 106 | 3.98 | 3.26 | 0.32 |
| HOU | 52 | 0.661 | 0.615 | 93 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.32 |
Vegas has Houston favored more than TC Sim but not by much. The WAS line is pretty close and will be closer if home field advantage was taken into account. Right now home field hasn’t been incorporated into TC Sim and won’t be until there is a sold proof as to how it should be done.
HOU leads in WAA, and R. Starters and Lineups almost equal. Washington has weak relief which will haunt them every game this series. WAS lack of relief is compensated by a set of good starters which will be shown again in detail tomorrow. WAS Lineup isn’t as powerful.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max_Scherzer_WAS | 6.40 | 0.667 | 172.3 | 3.26 |
| Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 9.64 | 0.704 | 212.3 | 4.00 |
Both pitchers hover around average in post season which is below average for top tier MLB pitchers.
Both Houston and Yankees featured only 3 starters in their roster. The last time that was done in a 7 game series was the 2009 Yankees who did this in both ALCS and WS. ALCS Game 6 turned into a reliever smorgasbord for both teams because each team had only 3 starters.
Rosters are out and here are starting rotations for each team.
WAS Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +017+ | 6.40 | Max_Scherzer_WAS | 172.3 | |
| +026+ | 5.96 | Patrick_Corbin_WAS | 202.0 | |
| +028+ | 5.88 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 209.0 | |
| +128+ | 2.60 | Anibal_Sanchez_WAS | 166.0 | |
| Total | 20.84 | 0.625 |
HOU Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +001+ | 9.70 | Justin_Verlander_HOU | 223.0 | |
| +002+ | 9.64 | Gerrit_Cole_HOU | 212.3 | |
| +009+ | 7.35 | Zack_Greinke_HOU | 208.7 | |
| Total | 26.69 | 0.686 |
Houston is going with 3 starters again. Interesting that those three starters are valued more than all four on Washington. Only need four games to win. Lineups coming later and relief rosters will be shown tomorrow. Until then ….’
Update: Lineups are in.
WAS Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.47 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 569 |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF | 656 |
| +005+ | 8.95 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 646 |
| +020+ | 6.19 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 659 |
| +085+ | 3.42 | Howie_Kendrick_WAS | 1B-2B-3B | 370 |
| +078+ | 3.53 | Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS | 3B-2B | 514 |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS | 1B | 190 |
| +132+ | 2.56 | Kurt_Suzuki_WAS | CR | 309 |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Victor_Robles_WAS | CF-RF | 617 |
| Total | 25.34 | TIER=3.98 |
HOU Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 6.17 | George_Springer_HOU | CF-RF-DH | 556 |
| +089+ | 3.34 | Jose_Altuve_HOU | 2B | 548 |
| +124+ | 2.67 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 637 |
| +011+ | 7.22 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B-SS | 690 |
| +052+ | 4.45 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B-3B | 612 |
| +137+ | 2.54 | Carlos_Correa_HOU | SS | 321 |
| +042+ | 5.00 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | DH-LF | 369 |
| -133- | -2.08 | Martin_Maldonado_HOU | CR | 374 |
| -137- | -1.97 | Josh_Reddick_HOU | RF-LF | 550 |
| Total | 27.34 | TIER=4.00 |
Too very equal lineups. Nationals have a very improved lineup compared to their NLCS lineups; most likely due to DH being used in Houston. Lineups face starters however to score runs — not opposing lineups.