World Series Game 1

World Series Game 1 tonight in Houston.

Playoff Horse Race — The End

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
HOU 52 70.6 31.5 26.7 12.4 14.4
WAS 24 51.0 24.9 20.9 5.2 18.4

This is the final edition of playoff horse race for 2019.  Looks like HOU is better in each category.  Both teams have very positive UR which means good fielding.   There probably won’t be many stupid errors that lose a game but strange things sometimes happen in a World Series however.

WAS HOU 10_22_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.364 0.385 106 3.98 3.26 0.32
HOU 52 0.661 0.615 93 4.00 4.00 3.32

Vegas has Houston favored more than TC Sim but not by much.  The WAS line is pretty close and will be closer if home field advantage was taken into account.  Right now home field hasn’t been incorporated into TC Sim and won’t be until there is a sold proof as to how it should be done.

HOU leads in WAA, and R.  Starters and Lineups almost equal.  Washington has weak relief which will haunt them every game this series.  WAS lack of relief is compensated by a set of good starters which will be shown again in detail tomorrow.  WAS Lineup isn’t as powerful.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26
Gerrit_Cole_HOU 9.64 0.704 212.3 4.00

Both pitchers hover around average in post season which is below average for top tier MLB pitchers.

Both Houston and Yankees featured only 3 starters in their roster.  The last time that was done in a 7 game series was the 2009 Yankees who did this in both ALCS and WS.  ALCS Game 6 turned into a reliever smorgasbord for both teams because each team had only 3 starters.

Rosters are out and here are starting rotations for each team.

WAS Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+017+ 6.40 Max_Scherzer_WAS 172.3
+026+ 5.96 Patrick_Corbin_WAS 202.0
+028+ 5.88 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 209.0
+128+ 2.60 Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 166.0
Total 20.84 0.625

HOU Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+001+ 9.70 Justin_Verlander_HOU 223.0
+002+ 9.64 Gerrit_Cole_HOU 212.3
+009+ 7.35 Zack_Greinke_HOU 208.7
Total 26.69 0.686

Houston is going with 3 starters again.  Interesting that those three starters are valued more than all four on Washington.  Only need four games to win.  Lineups coming later and relief rosters will be shown tomorrow.  Until then ….’

Update: Lineups are in.

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
Total 25.34 TIER=3.98

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
-133- -2.08 Martin_Maldonado_HOU CR 374
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 27.34 TIER=4.00

Too very equal lineups.   Nationals have a very improved lineup compared to their NLCS lineups; most likely due to DH being used in Houston. Lineups face starters however to score runs — not opposing lineups.