World Series game 2 tonight in Houston. Washington won game 1 yesterday. Let’s see what the odds makers think of this game.
WAS HOU 10_23_8:07_PM
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 24 | 0.385 | 0.405 | 105 | 3.98 | 2.95 | 0.32 |
| HOU | 52 | 0.636 | 0.595 | 93 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.32 |
Vegas has Houston favored a little more than TC Sim but not much. ELO has HOU favored at 59%; almost equal to TC Sim. The WAS percentages between Vegas and TC Sim are even closer due to the spread in Vegas. L , S , R columns show HOU has better relief and starter tonight, lineups equal.
| Starters | WAA | WinPct | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | 5.88 | 0.627 | 209.0 | 2.95 |
| Justin_Verlander_HOU | 9.70 | 0.696 | 223.0 | 4.00 |
Verlander was ranked #1 according to this data model, #5 according to WAR. This model ranked Strasburg #28, WAR has him #15. TC Sim shows Verlander one complete Tier above Strasburg based on regular season stats. One Tier # translates into 1/2 standard deviation.
Both these starters have post season experience. Here are their career post season numbers not including 2019 so far.
| Rank | WAA | IP | ERA | Gs | Gr | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +030+ | 2.54 | 33.0 | 0.27 | 5 | 1 | Stephen_Strasburg_WAS | PITCH | post season |
| +033+ | 2.50 | 189.0 | 3.00 | 29 | 4 | Justin_Verlander_TOT | PITCH | post season |
Both pitchers around the same rank. Strasburg rocketed up the ranks with a 0.27 ERA over 33 IP. Strasburg won’t be able to keep up that ERA but Houston will be in trouble if he shuts them out or only lets up one run for 7 innings. Verlander has almost a complete season of post season experience under his belt and an ERA of 3.00 means he’s very consistent. League average post season ERA is far lower than regular season.
Post season data for current year can only be compiled after retrosheet.org releases event data. It will be interesting to see where these two pitchers end up in rank after this season of post season outings.
Since we did starters yesterday let’s look at relief for both these teams.
WAS Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +079+ | 3.51 | Daniel_Hudson_WAS | 73.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Austin_Voth_WAS | 43.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Tanner_Rainey_WAS | 48.3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Sean_Doolittle_WAS | 60.0 | |
| XXXXX | 0.65 | Roenis_Elias_WAS | 50.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Javy_Guerra_WAS | 67.7 | |
| XXXXX | -1.30 | Fernando_Rodney_WAS | 47.7 | |
| Total | 5.23 | TIER=0.32 |
HOU Relief
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | IP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +056+ | 4.14 | Will_Harris_HOU | 60.0 | |
| +121+ | 2.75 | Roberto_Osuna_HOU | 65.0 | |
| +123+ | 2.69 | Ryan_Pressly_HOU | 54.3 | |
| XXXXX | 1.55 | Joe_Smith_HOU | 25.0 | |
| XXXXX | 1.05 | Hector_Rondon_HOU | 60.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Brad_Peacock_HOU | 91.7 | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Jose_Urquidy_HOU | 41.0 | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Josh_James_HOU | 61.3 | |
| XXXXX | -0.61 | Chris_Devenski_HOU | 69.0 | |
| Total | 12.38 | TIER=3.32 |
Houston is carrying 9 relievers, Washington only 7. Since HOU has only 3 starters on their roster one of the above is probably a pseudo starter for Game 4, 5 or 6. Lineups for today not available but they should be very similar to yesterday. TC Sim used lineups from yesterday. This post will be updated when they become available.
No game tomorrow. Might dive into historical handicapping if I get motivated. Until then ….
Update: Lineups are in …
WAS Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 1.47 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 569 |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Adam_Eaton_WAS | RF | 656 |
| +005+ | 8.95 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 646 |
| +020+ | 6.19 | Juan_Soto_WAS | LF | 659 |
| +085+ | 3.42 | Howie_Kendrick_WAS | 1B-2B-3B | 370 |
| +078+ | 3.53 | Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS | 3B-2B | 514 |
| XXXXX | 0.06 | Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS | 1B | 190 |
| +132+ | 2.56 | Kurt_Suzuki_WAS | CR | 309 |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Victor_Robles_WAS | CF-RF | 617 |
| Total | 25.34 | TIER=3.98 |
HOU Lineup Today
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 6.17 | George_Springer_HOU | CF-RF-DH | 556 |
| +089+ | 3.34 | Jose_Altuve_HOU | 2B | 548 |
| +124+ | 2.67 | Michael_Brantley_HOU | LF-DH | 637 |
| +011+ | 7.22 | Alex_Bregman_HOU | 3B-SS | 690 |
| +052+ | 4.45 | Yuli_Gurriel_HOU | 1B-3B | 612 |
| +042+ | 5.00 | Yordan_Alvarez_HOU | DH-LF | 369 |
| +137+ | 2.54 | Carlos_Correa_HOU | SS | 321 |
| XXXXX | 1.09 | Robinson_Chirinos_HOU | CR | 437 |
| -137- | -1.97 | Josh_Reddick_HOU | RF-LF | 550 |
| Total | 30.51 | TIER=4.00 |