World Series Game 2

World Series game 2 tonight in Houston.  Washington won game 1 yesterday.  Let’s see what the odds makers think of this game.

WAS HOU 10_23_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.385 0.405 105 3.98 2.95 0.32
HOU 52 0.636 0.595 93 4.00 4.00 3.32

Vegas has Houston favored a little more than TC Sim but not much.  ELO has HOU favored at 59%; almost equal to TC Sim.  The WAS percentages between Vegas and TC Sim are even closer due to the spread in Vegas.  L , S , R columns show HOU has better relief and starter tonight, lineups equal.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Stephen_Strasburg_WAS 5.88 0.627 209.0 2.95
Justin_Verlander_HOU 9.70 0.696 223.0 4.00

Verlander was ranked #1 according to this data model, #5 according to WAR.  This model ranked Strasburg #28, WAR has him #15.  TC Sim shows Verlander one complete Tier above Strasburg based on regular season stats.  One Tier # translates into 1/2 standard deviation.

Both these starters have post season experience.  Here are their career post season numbers not including 2019 so far.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+030+ 2.54 33.0 0.27 5 1 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS PITCH  post season
+033+ 2.50 189.0 3.00 29 4 Justin_Verlander_TOT PITCH  post season

Both pitchers around the same rank.  Strasburg rocketed up the ranks with a 0.27 ERA over 33 IP.  Strasburg won’t be able to keep up that ERA but Houston will be in trouble if he shuts them out or only lets up one run for 7 innings.  Verlander has almost a complete season of post season experience under his belt and an ERA of 3.00 means he’s very consistent.  League average post season ERA is far lower than regular season.

Post season data for current year can only be compiled after retrosheet.org releases event data.  It will be interesting to see where these two pitchers end up in rank after this season of post season outings.

Since we did starters yesterday let’s look at relief for both these teams.

WAS Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+079+ 3.51 Daniel_Hudson_WAS 73.0
XXXXX 1.24 Austin_Voth_WAS 43.7
XXXXX 0.69 Tanner_Rainey_WAS 48.3
XXXXX 0.65 Sean_Doolittle_WAS 60.0
XXXXX 0.65 Roenis_Elias_WAS 50.0
XXXXX -0.21 Javy_Guerra_WAS 67.7
XXXXX -1.30 Fernando_Rodney_WAS 47.7
Total 5.23 TIER=0.32

HOU Relief

Rank WAA Name_TeamID IP
+056+ 4.14 Will_Harris_HOU 60.0
+121+ 2.75 Roberto_Osuna_HOU 65.0
+123+ 2.69 Ryan_Pressly_HOU 54.3
XXXXX 1.55 Joe_Smith_HOU 25.0
XXXXX 1.05 Hector_Rondon_HOU 60.7
XXXXX 0.69 Brad_Peacock_HOU 91.7
XXXXX 0.48 Jose_Urquidy_HOU 41.0
XXXXX -0.36 Josh_James_HOU 61.3
XXXXX -0.61 Chris_Devenski_HOU 69.0
Total 12.38 TIER=3.32

Houston is carrying 9 relievers, Washington only 7.  Since HOU has only 3 starters on their roster one of the above is probably a pseudo starter for Game 4, 5 or 6.  Lineups for today not available but they should be very similar to yesterday.  TC Sim used lineups from yesterday. This post will be updated when they become available.

No game tomorrow.  Might dive into historical handicapping if I get motivated.  Until then ….

Update: Lineups are in …

WAS Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
+132+ 2.56 Kurt_Suzuki_WAS CR 309
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
Total 25.34 TIER=3.98

HOU Lineup Today

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00