World Series Game 3

World Series game 3 tonight.  Houston is on the ropes.  Three games in Washington and they must win 2 to regain home field advantage.

HOU WAS 10_25_8:07_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
HOU 52 0.580 0.609 105 4.00 3.82 3.32
WAS 24 0.439 0.391 89 3.98 1.01 0.32

TC Sim has Houston favored a little more than Vegas. ELO has Washington favored at 53% so this would definitely be a WAS line betting opportunity in that system.    There are caveats.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.82
Anibal_Sanchez_WAS 2.60 0.571 166.0 1.01

Regular season Zack Greinke was much better than regular season Anibal Sanchez this season.

Post Season

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH
XXXXX 0.46 43.3 3.12 7 3 Anibal_Sanchez_TOT PITCH

Post season Zack Greinke much worse.  The above does not include 2019 numbers.  Greinke is currently racing Clayton Kershaw to the bottom of post season player rankings.

TC Sim does not incorporate post season numbers and right now don’t know if that can even be possible.  Most players come into post season with very little to no post season experience.  The above switches the S column from HOU >> WAS to WAS >> HOU.  This game wouldn’t be a betting opportunity for TC Sim regardless which S set of numbers it draws from.

This post will be updated when lineups become available.  Pitchers must BAT in Washington.  TC Sim above was calculated using lineups from Game 2.

HOU Lineup Today

no lineup for HOU

WAS Lineup Today

no lineup for WAS