World Series Game 7

Another World Series Game 7.  Let’s see what this matchup looks like.

WAS HOU 10_30_8:08_PM

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS 24 0.444 0.401 90 3.37 3.26 0.32
HOU 52 0.574 0.599 104 4.00 3.82 3.32

The R ( Relief ) column is always the same for each team throughout a playoff series because it’s based upon their published roster which shouldn’t change.  Lineups ( L ) are usually around the same.  S ( Starters ) is the only column that deviates game to game.

TC Sim has Houston favored more than Vegas today.  The Vegas line started out at 0.600 in favor of HOU and has been moving towards WAS.  ELO has HOU favored 52% which is close to where they had them favored yesterday.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Max_Scherzer_WAS 6.40 0.667 172.3 3.26
Zack_Greinke_TOT 7.35 0.658 208.7 3.82

Greinke had a better regular season than Scherzer.  Both these pitchers have post season experience.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.34 89.3 3.73 14 6 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH  post season
-081- -1.47 75.7 4.40 13 3 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH  post season

Scherzer is around even steven and Greinke is very under water for all post seasons not including 2019.  Greinke pitched well in game 3 however.  Vegas bettors might know about the above.  At even steven, playoff Max Scherzer pitches well below regular season Max Scherzer.  HOU has home field advantage and this is a desperation game for both teams.

TC Sim relies solely on regular season performance.  Here are lineups from yesterday as an FYI.  They shouldn’t be much different than tonight.  This will be the last game of the 2019 baseball season.

WAS Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.47 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 569
XXXXX -0.86 Adam_Eaton_WAS RF 656
+005+ 8.95 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 646
+020+ 6.19 Juan_Soto_WAS LF 659
+085+ 3.42 Howie_Kendrick_WAS 1B-2B-3B 370
+078+ 3.53 Asdrubal_Cabrera_WAS 3B-2B 514
XXXXX 0.06 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 190
XXXXX 0.02 Victor_Robles_WAS CF-RF 617
XXXXX -0.88 Yan_Gomes_WAS CR 358
Total 21.90 TIER=3.37

HOU Lineup Yesterday

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+023+ 6.17 George_Springer_HOU CF-RF-DH 556
+089+ 3.34 Jose_Altuve_HOU 2B 548
+124+ 2.67 Michael_Brantley_HOU LF-DH 637
+011+ 7.22 Alex_Bregman_HOU 3B-SS 690
+052+ 4.45 Yuli_Gurriel_HOU 1B-3B 612
+042+ 5.00 Yordan_Alvarez_HOU DH-LF 369
+137+ 2.54 Carlos_Correa_HOU SS 321
XXXXX 1.09 Robinson_Chirinos_HOU CR 437
-137- -1.97 Josh_Reddick_HOU RF-LF 550
Total 30.51 TIER=4.00