1919 World Series Part 6

The White Sox are down 3-1 in a best of 9 World Series so the 8 in on the fix can breathe easier.  Today we’ll cover game 5 of the 1919 World Series.

Game 4 was played on 10/4/1919 and this game will be played 2 days later on 10/6/1919 which means players got a day of rest.  Since MLB didn’t provide a day of rest for travel  to and from Cincinnati one could probably assume it rained on 10/5/2019.   Players wouldn’t have known ahead of time  about this day off because they didn’t have weather apps on their phones to study.

CIN CHA 191910060

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CIN 52 x X X 0.62 1.61 1.93
CHA 36 x X X 4.08 1.10 -2.34

Lineup and Relief very similar game to game and R is irrelevant in this series.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Hod_Eller_CIN 3.65 0.566 248.3 1.61
Lefty_Williams_CHA 2.81 0.543 297 1.10

Hod Eller is another decent mid tier starter slightly better than Lefty Williams who is in on the fix.   Unfortunately for Eller he must face a Tier 4 lineup that is 2 standard deviations above league average.  Fortunately for Eller, most of that lineup don’t want to score runs.  Let’s see what happens.

The White Sox would be favored again for this game based on L->S matchups but not as much as they were in Game 4.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Score
CIN 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 5
CHA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cincinnati finally score runs in the 6th and they score big.  The Tier 4 CHA lineup couldn’t score a single run against a Tier 1.6 pitcher for the second game in a row at home.  Let’s look deeper into this box score.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
-079- -1.51 1 Morrie_Rath_CIN 4 1 1 1 1 1 2B
XXXXX 0.50 2 Jake_Daubert_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 1B
+024+ 4.26 3 Heinie_Groh_CIN 4 1 0 0 0 1 3B
+033+ 3.53 4 Edd_Roush_CIN 4 2 2 3 1 0 CF-OF
XXXXX 0.63 5 Pat_Duncan_CIN 4 0 1 0 0 1 LF-OF
XXXXX 0.40 6 Larry_Kopf_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 SS
XXXXX -0.15 7 Greasy_Neale_CIN 4 0 1 0 0 0 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX -0.69 8 Bill_Rariden_CIN 4 0 0 0 0 0 CR
XXXXX 0.48 9 Hod_Eller_CIN 3 1 0 2 1 0 PITCH
TOTAL 7.45 X TIER=0.62 35 5 5 7 4 3 X

Edd Roush drives in two with a triple and scores himself twice.  He must have gotten on with an error also.

CIN Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+028+ 3.65 Hod_Eller_CIN 27 31 0 0 9 SP
TOTAL X X 27 31 0 0 9

Hod Eller pitches a 3 hit shutout.  Hits and Walks are shown in the Lineup box score to keep things simple.  Eller strikes out 9 in this game which is by far the highest of any pitcher this series.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.94 1 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 1 OF-RF-LF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 4 0 0 4 2 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 4 0 0 0 0 0 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 2 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX -0.17 9 Lefty_Williams_CHA 2 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
XXXXX 0.53 10 Eddie_Murphy_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 0 BAT
XXXXX -0.59 11 Byrd_Lynn_CHA 1 0 0 0 0 0 CR
TOTAL 25.48 X TIER=4.08 31 0 0 5 3 1 X

Note: Red means in on the fix.

Buck Weaver gets 2 hits.  Ray Schaik gets the other hit and Nemo Leibold gets the only walk; both not in on the fix.  Buck Weaver’s first hit, a single, came in the first inning with one out so he had plenty of cover.  His second hit was a Triple in the 9th after the game was lost.

A big part of fixing something millions of people are watching, listening to, and reading about is it has to look real.  This lineup that got CHA to the World Series can’t all just go 0 and out each game and call it a day.  Top of the order guys like Weaver and Jackson had plenty of cover down lineup if they got on base.  It would be more treacherous for Gandil, the purported ring leader of the 8, and Risberg to get on base because the bottom and top of the order were not in on the fix, players who really wanted to drive them home.

Based on WAA there probably wasn’t much expectation for Risberg to hit.  He was chosen because he plays shortstop and 2B  was out.  At the end of all of this we’ll look at how all these players performed overall.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+047+ 2.81 Lefty_Williams_CHA 24 30 4 4 3 SP
-001- -5.82 Erskine_Mayer_CHA 3 5 0 1 0 RP
TOTAL X X 27 35 4 5 3

There were only 4 earned runs out of 5 scored meaning one was unearned.  The unearned run came in the 9th off reliever Erskine Mayer who happens to be ranked #1 in the bottom 100, a list no one wants to be #1.  He’s a big reason CHA had such bad PITCH in team status.   Using schlocks to mop up was the purpose of relief in this era of baseball.

Although the White Sox committed 3 errors in this game, only one unearned run came of them and in the 9th inning when the game was pretty much lost, when even White Sox  manager,  not in on the fix, replaced Williams with the worst player in baseball.  Ironically Eddie Collins,  not in on the fix, committed the error which caused this unearned run.

With CHA down 4-1 in a best of 9 series It’s almost impossible for White Sox not to lose.  They would have to win the next 4 in a row.  If each game were a 50/50 toss up they would have a 1/16 chance.  It goes to 1/8 if we assume White Sox are 60% favorites in each game.  There will be plenty of opportunities not to win in the next four games so the fixers can really relax now.  CHA players can also afford to pad some stats and not worry about winning the next game.

Dickie Kerr, the only White Sox starter not in the fix pitches tomorrow.  He won the only game for CHA this series.  The box score for that game next.  Until then ….