1919 World Series Part 7

The White Sox are down 4-1 so they need to win out in order to beat the Reds.  That’s like being down 3-0 in a 7 game series and winning.  It happens but rarely.  We know now which players are in on the fix but back then it may have been a rumor among the many rumors not  true.  Part of getting away with this is making it look real.  The White Sox don’t have to worry about winning this game.  They can pad their stats.  Let’s look at Game 6 of the 1919 World Series.

CHA CIN 191910070

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHA 36 x X X 3.94 -0.12 -2.34
CIN 52 x X X 0.43 3.53 1.93

They played the last game on 10/6/1919 in Chicago and the above shows they played in Cincinnati the next day on 10/7/1919.  Another 9 hour train trip but maybe it was faster back then before Amtrak took over.

Reds have their best pitcher starting today who must face the almost Tier 4 lineup CHA puts up every day.  Let’s look at L->R combos:

L(away) – S(home)  = 3.94 – 3.53 = 0.41 which rounds down to integer 0

The above says CHA lineup is around equivalent to CIN starter.

L(home) – S(away) = 0.43 – ( -0.12) = 0.55 rounded up to integer 1

The CIN L-> S combo > CHA L-> S combo but not by much.  In this era of baseball we can ignore Relief (R) simplifying things.  The two L->S combo integers would be simulated using  historical results (in this case future results) and a Win% would result.  This hasn’t been done yet.

The above suggests CIN would be favored slightly in this game.  This is the only game of all 8  CIN would be favored according to this data model.  Tier Combo integers can tell you who is favored, simulation can tell you by how much.  Simulation is a work in progress for games before 1970.

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Dickey_Kerr_CHA 0.80 0.517 212.3 -0.12
Dutch_Ruether_CIN 6.83 0.627 242.7 3.53

White Sox have their worst pitcher starting, who was not in on the fix, going against Reds best pitcher playing in Cincinnati.  And here’s what happened.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Score
CHA 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 5
CIN 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

Cincinnati scored early  as one might expect from this L->S matchup.  Then the White Sox came back to win it in the tenth.

There were two errors committed by Swede Risberg (SS), in on the fix, one resulting in an unearned run scored.  Happy Felsch,  also in on the fix, committed the other error but no runs scored.  Those were the only 3 errors committed by either team today.  White Sox committed three errors yesterday too.

it will be interesting to see who committed the most total errors at the end of this.  I read that one of the eight claimed they committed so many errors because they were nervous about being accused as being part of the fix.  That could have been a true statement but only for this game.  If those in on the fix thought winning was OK today then Risberg and Felsch making errors didn’t help their cause.  Those errors may be needed when they really have to lose.

CHA Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
XXXXX 0.06 1 Shano_Collins_CHA 3 0 0 0 0 0 OF-RF
+017+ 5.17 2 Eddie_Collins_CHA 5 0 1 0 0 0 2B
+020+ 5.00 3 Buck_Weaver_CHA 5 2 0 5 3 0 3B-SS
+010+ 6.57 4 Shoeless_Joe_Jackson_CHA 5 1 1 1 1 1 OF-LF-RF
+021+ 4.98 5 Happy_Felsch_CHA 5 1 1 3 2 0 CF-OF
+053+ 2.65 6 Chick_Gandil_CHA 5 0 1 1 1 1 1B
XXXXX -0.08 7 Swede_Risberg_CHA 5 1 0 0 0 1 SS-1B
XXXXX 0.42 8 Ray_Schalk_CHA 4 0 1 1 1 2 CR
XXXXX 0.00 9 Dickey_Kerr_CHA 4 0 0 1 1 0 PITCH
XXXXX 0.94 10 Nemo_Leibold_CHA 2 0 0 0 0 1 OF-RF-LF
TOTAL 24.77 X TIER=3.94 43 5 5 12 9 6 X

Buck Weaver had a good day going 3/5 scoring twice.  Shoeless Joe scores and gets an RBI.  Even Dickey Kerr the pitcher gets a hit.  Chick Gandil, the alleged organizer of the fix, scored the game winning RBI driving in Buck Weaver, also in on the fix, in the top of the tenth.

CHA Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
XXXXX 0.80 Dickey_Kerr_CHA 30 42 3 4 2 SP
TOTAL X X 30 42 3 4 2

Dickey Kerr pitched all 10 innings.

CIN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID PA R RBI TB H W Pos
-079- -1.51 1 Morrie_Rath_CIN 5 0 0 1 1 0 2B
XXXXX 0.50 2 Jake_Daubert_CIN 5 1 0 2 2 0 1B
+024+ 4.26 3 Heinie_Groh_CIN 5 0 0 2 1 1 3B
+033+ 3.53 4 Edd_Roush_CIN 5 1 0 1 1 1 CF-OF
XXXXX 0.63 5 Pat_Duncan_CIN 5 0 2 2 1 0 LF-OF
XXXXX 0.40 6 Larry_Kopf_CIN 5 0 0 0 0 1 SS
XXXXX -0.15 7 Greasy_Neale_CIN 4 1 0 5 3 0 OF-RF-LF
XXXXX -0.69 8 Bill_Rariden_CIN 4 0 0 1 1 0 CR
XXXXX -0.55 9 Dutch_Ruether_CIN 2 1 1 2 1 0 PITCH
XXXXX -0.88 11 Jimmy_Ring_CIN 2 0 0 0 0 0 PITCH
TOTAL 6.42 X TIER=0.43 42 4 3 16 11 3 X

Four runs scored on 11 hits and 3 walks.

CIN Pitchers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Outs PA ER R SO
+008+ 6.83 Dutch_Ruether_CIN 15 23 4 4 0 SP
+038+ 3.25 Jimmy_Ring_CIN 15 20 1 1 2 RP
TOTAL X X 30 43 5 5 2

Jimmy Ring who pitched in game 4 3 days ago pitches in relief after 5 innings and goes  another 5 giving up the run that lost this game for CIN.

So the White Sox make this series 4-2; a best of 5 now with them down 2-0.  If the White Sox wanted to lose this game they could have easily folded after the 5th but they didn’t.  Let’s see what Game 7 looks like tomorrow.  Until then ….