Cubs start a series with the Pirates today. Let’s look at this matchup.
NL_East 19840619
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 37 | 27 | 37.6 | 30.7 | -19.7 | |
| NYN | 34 | 27 | -60.9 | 35.7 | -2.7 | |
| CHN | 35 | 29 | 44.1 | -6.3 | 3.3 | |
| WAS | 33 | 33 | -19.4 | 26.7 | -0.7 | |
| SLN | 33 | 35 | -25.4 | 3.7 | 13.3 | |
| PIT | 24 | 39 | -61.9 | 44.7 | 10.3 |
Cubs just got swept by the Phillies in a 4 game series and now reside in third place in the NL East.
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 5 | X | 0.599 | X | 3.97 | -3.27 | -0.93 | |
| PIT | -14 | X | 0.401 | X | -4.00 | 1.88 | -0.18 |
According to real team WAA (first column), Cubs have a much better record than the last place Pirates. Pirates have a bottom of MLB lineup going today at maxed out -4. Cubs have almost a maxed out +4 top of MLB lineup right now.
Pirates have an advantage in starting pitching today as we’ll see below. This all adds up to Cubs having around a 60% chance of winning today.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -006- | -3.11 | 94.3 | Rick_Sutcliffe | CHN | 7 | -3.27 |
| +068+ | 1.76 | 88.7 | John_Tudor | PIT | 5 | 1.88 |
Rick Sutcliff had a very poor start to the 1984 season with SDN, Cleveland Indians (CLE) and ranked #7 as the least valuable player in MLB right now. This was probably an incentive for the Padres to deal him to the Cubs. He had 7 days of rest so let’s see how he did.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 202000000 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 1 |
| PIT | 000000003 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Cubs score early and Pirates only come up with 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th against Cubs relatively poor relief which we’ll describe in more detail later this season.
CHN Lineup 198406190
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.36 | Bob_Dernier | CHN | CF | 235 |
| +078+ | 1.6 | Ryne_Sandberg | CHN | 2B | 288 |
| +050+ | 2.12 | Gary_Matthews | CHN | LF | 246 |
| XXXXX | -0.42 | Keith_Moreland | CHN | RF | 142 |
| +064+ | 1.89 | Ron_Cey | CHN | 3B | 228 |
| +024+ | 2.73 | Jody_Davis | CHN | CR | 232 |
| +004+ | 3.99 | Leon_Durham | CHN | 1B | 251 |
| -067- | -1.39 | Larry_Bowa | CHN | SS | 186 |
| XXXXX | 0 | Rick_Sutcliffe | CHN | PR | 0 |
| TOTAL | 10.88 |
This is a maxed out tier 4 top of the league lineup according to this data model.
PIT Lineup 198406190
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -030- | -2.1 | Marvell_Wynne | PIT | CF | 280 |
| XXXXX | -0.84 | Lee_Mazzilli | PIT | LF | 116 |
| XXXXX | -1.24 | Bill_Madlock | PIT | 3B | 253 |
| XXXXX | -1.03 | Jason_Thompson | PIT | 1B | 230 |
| XXXXX | -0.76 | Johnny_Ray | PIT | 2B | 241 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Tony_Pena | PIT | CR | 228 |
| XXXXX | 0.04 | Benny_Distefano | PIT | RF | 52 |
| XXXXX | -1.18 | Dale_Berra | PIT | SS | 214 |
| XXXXX | -0.61 | John_Tudor | PIT | PR | 35 |
| TOTAL | -7.95 |
And this is a bottom of MLB lineup based on league data as of 6/19/1984.
CHN START Roster 19840619
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -006- | -3.11 | Rick_Sutcliffe | START | 0 |
| -042- | -1.89 | Dennis_Eckersley | START | 2 |
| -016- | -2.37 | Rick_Reuschel | START | 3 |
| XXXXX | -0.61 | Chuck_Rainey | START | 4 |
| XXXXX | 0.69 | Rich_Bordi | START | 5 |
| TOTAL | -7.29 |
Right now Cubs still don’t have a very good starting rotation. It might be one of the worst in the league but we only tier individual starters, not entire squads.
Since we’re from the future we know pitching fortunes improve across the board for the Cubs which we’ll see as this season progresses.
PIT START Roster 19840619
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +068+ | 1.76 | John_Tudor | START | 0 | |
| +042+ | 2.31 | Larry_McWilliams | START | 2 | |
| +040+ | 2.35 | Rick_Rhoden | START | 3 | |
| XXXXX | 0.84 | Jose_DeLeon | START | 4 | |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Lee_Tunnell | START | 6 | |
| TOTAL | 6.92 |
Pirates have a very good pitching staff right now which is reflected in their very positive PITCH based upon run differential.
That’s all for now. 1984 playoff horse race Part 1 coming next. Until then ….