Cubs Pirate Matchup 6/19/1984

Cubs start a series with the Pirates today. Let’s look at this matchup.

NL_East 19840619

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
PHI 37 27 37.6 30.7 -19.7
NYN 34 27 -60.9 35.7 -2.7
CHN 35 29 44.1 -6.3 3.3
WAS 33 33 -19.4 26.7 -0.7
SLN 33 35 -25.4 3.7 13.3
PIT 24 39 -61.9 44.7 10.3

Cubs just got swept by the Phillies in a 4 game series and now reside in third place  in the NL East.

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 5 X 0.599 X 3.97 -3.27 -0.93  
PIT -14 X 0.401 X -4.00 1.88 -0.18  

According to real team WAA (first column), Cubs have a much better record than the last place Pirates.  Pirates have a bottom of MLB lineup going today at maxed out -4.  Cubs have almost a maxed out +4 top of MLB lineup right now.

Pirates have an advantage in starting pitching today as we’ll see below.  This all adds up to Cubs having around a 60% chance of winning today.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-006- -3.11 94.3 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 7 -3.27
+068+ 1.76 88.7 John_Tudor PIT 5 1.88

Rick Sutcliff had a very poor start to the 1984 season with SDN, Cleveland Indians (CLE) and ranked #7 as the least valuable player in MLB right now.  This was probably an incentive for the Padres to deal him to the Cubs.  He had 7 days of rest so let’s see how he did.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 202000000 4 10 7 1
PIT 000000003 3 6 5 0

Cubs score early and Pirates only come up with 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th against Cubs relatively poor relief which we’ll describe in more detail later this season.

CHN Lineup 198406190

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.36 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 235
+078+ 1.6 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 288
+050+ 2.12 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 246
XXXXX -0.42 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 142
+064+ 1.89 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 228
+024+ 2.73 Jody_Davis CHN CR 232
+004+ 3.99 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 251
-067- -1.39 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 186
XXXXX 0 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN PR 0
TOTAL 10.88

This is a maxed out tier 4 top of the league lineup according to this data model.

PIT Lineup 198406190

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
-030- -2.1 Marvell_Wynne PIT CF 280
XXXXX -0.84 Lee_Mazzilli PIT LF 116
XXXXX -1.24 Bill_Madlock PIT 3B 253
XXXXX -1.03 Jason_Thompson PIT 1B 230
XXXXX -0.76 Johnny_Ray PIT 2B 241
XXXXX -0.23 Tony_Pena PIT CR 228
XXXXX 0.04 Benny_Distefano PIT RF 52
XXXXX -1.18 Dale_Berra PIT SS 214
XXXXX -0.61 John_Tudor PIT PR 35
TOTAL -7.95

And this is a bottom of MLB lineup based on league data as of 6/19/1984.

CHN START Roster 19840619

Rank WAA Name Pos Rest
-006- -3.11 Rick_Sutcliffe START 0
-042- -1.89 Dennis_Eckersley START 2
-016- -2.37 Rick_Reuschel START 3
XXXXX -0.61 Chuck_Rainey START 4
XXXXX 0.69 Rich_Bordi START 5
TOTAL -7.29

Right now Cubs still don’t have a very good starting rotation.  It might be one of the worst in the league but we only tier individual starters, not entire squads. 

Since we’re from the future we know pitching fortunes improve across the board for the Cubs which we’ll see as this season progresses.

PIT START Roster 19840619

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+068+ 1.76 John_Tudor START 0
+042+ 2.31 Larry_McWilliams START 2
+040+ 2.35 Rick_Rhoden START 3
XXXXX 0.84 Jose_DeLeon START 4
XXXXX -0.34 Lee_Tunnell START 6
TOTAL 6.92

Pirates have a very good pitching staff right now which is reflected in their very positive PITCH based upon run differential.  

That’s all for now.  1984 playoff horse race Part 1 coming next.  Until then ….