1984 Playoff Horse Race Part 1

As we approach the half way point of the season, let’s look at the playoff horse race as of today, Wednesday 6/20/1984.

TeamID W-L Total Hitters Starters Relief UR
DET 32 22.06 16.50 1.89 3.67 5.7
PHI 9 12.68 8.25 2.08 2.35 -19.3
TOR 17 11.01 6.81 4.59 -0.39 9.7
ATL 10 10.19 7.33 -0.65 3.51 -1.3
BAL 10 9.52 3.49 3.72 2.31 -4.3
MIN -1 4.60 3.06 3.38 -1.84 1.7
SDN 13 4.58 3.71 -2.12 2.99 7.7
HOU -7 3.66 -5.62 5.61 3.67 1.7
ANA 3 3.12 2.78 -2.82 3.16 11.7
CHN 5 2.74 9.64 -6.64 -0.26 2.7
NYA -8 1.98 5.17 1.46 -4.65 -9.3

The above are end of day  W-L (WAA) after Cubs lose to Pittsburgh 5-1.  Horse race tables are sorted by the sum of player WAA according to the current roster of each team.  The above is the top half of MLB according to this data model.  In bold are the 4 playoff contenders as of today.

UR is unearned runs given up above average in units of runs.  As always, plus is good, negative is bad.  The Phillies (PHI) have the worst UR above which cripples them the second half of this season.

Detroit is way way ahead in both real WAA and Total WAA based on this data model.  Right now Cubs are valued around the middle of the pack based on total WAA which isn’t much different than where they stand with the league in real team WAA, the only stat in baseball that matters.  

The Cubs set of starters are worst of the top 12 after taking on negative value from Eckersley and Sutcliff and Reuschel pitching poorly.  Since we’re from the future we know that changes and we’ll see that from this data model as this season progresses.

That’s all for now.  Cubs team status might be next since this hasn’t been done yet or maybe after 6/22 when Cubs start a series with the Cardinals at Wrigley with Rick Reuschel on the mound.  Until then ….