Cubs Cardinals Matchup 6/22/1984

Today the Cubs start a Friday to Sunday weekend series with the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at this matchup.

NL_East 19840621

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 36 27 -52.6 34.7 -4.8
PHI 37 29 39.9 24.7 -22.8
CHN 35 31 43.4 -11.3 3.2
WAS 33 34 -27.1 31.7 0.2
SLN 34 35 -31.1 10.7 14.2
PIT 26 39 -56.6 44.7 11.2

These are the standings you would know about before the start of this game today.  Cardinals in next to last place but close to 0.500 with terrible BAT and slightly above average PITCH.  We’ll see why in their lineup today and set of starters currently on their roster shown below.

Tier Combo Table

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SLN -1 X 0.369 X -1.77 -2.05 1.60  
CHN 4 X 0.631 X 3.57 -2.44 -0.58  

These two teams aren’t that far apart with respect to real team WAA (first column).  Cubs have a top tier +3.57/4 lineup.  Both teams starting pitchers  are underwater this season.  Cubs have a 63% probability of winning today, largely due to their top lineup going against Cardinals’ terrible starter.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-036- -1.99 52.7 John_Stuper SLN 8 -2.05
-014- -2.35 53.3 Rick_Reuschel CHN 6 -2.44

This could be considered the opposite of a pitching duel as both pitchers ranked in the bottom 50 of MLB at the start of today.  Both pitchers had a lot of rest.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SLN 000300000 3 11 8 0
CHN 40000212 9 24 13 0

Cubs take out Stuper early while Reuschel gives up 3 in 7 1/3 innings which isn’t bad and the Cubs win handily teeing off on SLN relief.  Here are the lineups for today.

SLN Lineup 198406220

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.07 Tom_Herr SLN 2B 288
XXXXX -0.19 Andy_Van_Slyke SLN CF 192
XXXXX -0.86 Willie_McGee SLN CF 251
XXXXX 1.01 Darrell_Porter SLN CR 209
XXXXX 0.27 Mike_Jorgensen SLN 1B 36
XXXXX -0.02 Mark_Salas SLN CR 1
XXXXX -0.23 David_Green SLN 1B 152
XXXXX -0.88 Ozzie_Smith SLN SS 261
XXXXX -0.27 John_Stuper SLN PR 17
TOTAL -2.24

their

This lineup value concurs with their under water BAT in team status above.

CHN Lineup 198406220

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.25 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 248
+059+ 1.91 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 301
+035+ 2.44 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 259
+006+ 3.78 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 264
XXXXX -0.19 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 155
+033+ 2.48 Jody_Davis CHN CR 243
+070+ 1.72 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 239
-057- -1.64 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 196
XXXXX -0.08 Rick_Reuschel CHN PR 23
TOTAL 10.67

TC sim is counting pitcher’s hitting WAA again.  Leon Durham is in the top ten.  Cubs have solid hitting that will take them far if  pitching improves.

SLN START Roster 19840622

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
-036- -1.99 John_Stuper START 52.0 0
+045+ 2.27 Joaquin_Andujar START 129.0 2
-060- -1.57 Ken_Dayley START 20.0 3
+061+ 1.85 Ricky_Horton START 36.0 5
XXXXX -1.20 Danny_Cox START 79.0 6
TOTAL -0.64

Cardinals have two good starters and three bad starters.  Simulation only cares who starts for that day.

CHN START Roster 19840622

Rank WAA Name TeamID IP Rest
-014- -2.35 Rick_Reuschel START 53.0 0
-006- -2.79 Dennis_Eckersley START 103.0 1
XXXXX -0.57 Chuck_Rainey START 75.0 2
-011- -2.57 Rick_Sutcliffe START 102.0 3
XXXXX 0.71 Rich_Bordi START 40.0 8
TOTAL -7.57

Since we’re from the future we know this improves as the season progresses.