Today the Cubs start a Friday to Sunday weekend series with the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at this matchup.
NL_East 19840621
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYN | 36 | 27 | -52.6 | 34.7 | -4.8 | |
| PHI | 37 | 29 | 39.9 | 24.7 | -22.8 | |
| CHN | 35 | 31 | 43.4 | -11.3 | 3.2 | |
| WAS | 33 | 34 | -27.1 | 31.7 | 0.2 | |
| SLN | 34 | 35 | -31.1 | 10.7 | 14.2 | |
| PIT | 26 | 39 | -56.6 | 44.7 | 11.2 |
These are the standings you would know about before the start of this game today. Cardinals in next to last place but close to 0.500 with terrible BAT and slightly above average PITCH. We’ll see why in their lineup today and set of starters currently on their roster shown below.
Tier Combo Table
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | -1 | X | 0.369 | X | -1.77 | -2.05 | 1.60 | |
| CHN | 4 | X | 0.631 | X | 3.57 | -2.44 | -0.58 |
These two teams aren’t that far apart with respect to real team WAA (first column). Cubs have a top tier +3.57/4 lineup. Both teams starting pitchers are underwater this season. Cubs have a 63% probability of winning today, largely due to their top lineup going against Cardinals’ terrible starter.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -036- | -1.99 | 52.7 | John_Stuper | SLN | 8 | -2.05 |
| -014- | -2.35 | 53.3 | Rick_Reuschel | CHN | 6 | -2.44 |
This could be considered the opposite of a pitching duel as both pitchers ranked in the bottom 50 of MLB at the start of today. Both pitchers had a lot of rest. Let’s see what happens.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLN | 000300000 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 0 |
| CHN | 40000212 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 0 |
Cubs take out Stuper early while Reuschel gives up 3 in 7 1/3 innings which isn’t bad and the Cubs win handily teeing off on SLN relief. Here are the lineups for today.
SLN Lineup 198406220
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -1.07 | Tom_Herr | SLN | 2B | 288 |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Andy_Van_Slyke | SLN | CF | 192 |
| XXXXX | -0.86 | Willie_McGee | SLN | CF | 251 |
| XXXXX | 1.01 | Darrell_Porter | SLN | CR | 209 |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | Mike_Jorgensen | SLN | 1B | 36 |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Mark_Salas | SLN | CR | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | David_Green | SLN | 1B | 152 |
| XXXXX | -0.88 | Ozzie_Smith | SLN | SS | 261 |
| XXXXX | -0.27 | John_Stuper | SLN | PR | 17 |
| TOTAL | -2.24 |
their
This lineup value concurs with their under water BAT in team status above.
CHN Lineup 198406220
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Bob_Dernier | CHN | CF | 248 |
| +059+ | 1.91 | Ryne_Sandberg | CHN | 2B | 301 |
| +035+ | 2.44 | Gary_Matthews | CHN | LF | 259 |
| +006+ | 3.78 | Leon_Durham | CHN | 1B | 264 |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Keith_Moreland | CHN | RF | 155 |
| +033+ | 2.48 | Jody_Davis | CHN | CR | 243 |
| +070+ | 1.72 | Ron_Cey | CHN | 3B | 239 |
| -057- | -1.64 | Larry_Bowa | CHN | SS | 196 |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Rick_Reuschel | CHN | PR | 23 |
| TOTAL | 10.67 |
TC sim is counting pitcher’s hitting WAA again. Leon Durham is in the top ten. Cubs have solid hitting that will take them far if pitching improves.
SLN START Roster 19840622
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -036- | -1.99 | John_Stuper | START | 52.0 | 0 |
| +045+ | 2.27 | Joaquin_Andujar | START | 129.0 | 2 |
| -060- | -1.57 | Ken_Dayley | START | 20.0 | 3 |
| +061+ | 1.85 | Ricky_Horton | START | 36.0 | 5 |
| XXXXX | -1.20 | Danny_Cox | START | 79.0 | 6 |
| TOTAL | -0.64 |
Cardinals have two good starters and three bad starters. Simulation only cares who starts for that day.
CHN START Roster 19840622
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -014- | -2.35 | Rick_Reuschel | START | 53.0 | 0 |
| -006- | -2.79 | Dennis_Eckersley | START | 103.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.57 | Chuck_Rainey | START | 75.0 | 2 |
| -011- | -2.57 | Rick_Sutcliffe | START | 102.0 | 3 |
| XXXXX | 0.71 | Rich_Bordi | START | 40.0 | 8 |
| TOTAL | -7.57 |
Since we’re from the future we know this improves as the season progresses.