Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Dodgers. Let’s look at this matchup. Below are the top half of the National League as of the start of today.
NL 19840627
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDN | 43 | 29 | 25.0 | -0.2 | 4.9 | |
| PHI | 41 | 32 | 43.0 | 18.8 | -22.1 | |
| NYN | 38 | 31 | -65.5 | 41.8 | -2.1 | |
| CHN | 40 | 33 | 55.5 | -23.2 | 3.9 | |
| ATL | 41 | 35 | 33.0 | -14.2 | -0.1 | |
| LAN | 40 | 37 | -31.0 | 19.8 | -3.1 |
Cubs still struggling with pitching based upon PITCH, Dodgers (LAN) have problems with hitting based upon BAT in team status.
Tier Combos
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 7 | X | 0.574 | X | 3.22 | 1.67 | -1.27 | |
| LAN | 3 | X | 0.426 | X | -1.20 | 3.31 | -1.83 |
According to Tier Combo simulation Cubs have a 57% chance of winning based upon Lineups (L column), Starters (S column) and Relief (R column). L, S, and R columns contain tier numbers where every plus or minus tier represents 1/2 standard deviation above or below current league average.
Cubs have a much better lineup than Dodgers as should be expected based upon their respective BAT numbers in team status above. Dodgers have a better starter pitching today and both teams have bad relief.
Let’s look at today’s starters.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | TeamId | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +100+ | 1.55 | 83.7 | Steve_Trout | CHN | 5 | 1.67 |
| +023+ | 3.13 | 106.0 | Alejandro_Pena | LAN | 4 | 3.31 |
Steve Trout on the mound for Cubs and right now ranked exactly 100. This is a career season for Alejandro Pena who is Dodger’s ace pitcher. Let’s see what happens
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 000104000 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 2 |
| LAN | 000300000 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 1 |
Cubs bats tag Pena with 4 runs which is enough to win this game. Cubs underwater relief hold Dodger to no runs in 2 2/3 innings. Let’s look at lineups which will be very similar for these two teams on Saturday and Sunday.
CHN Lineup 198406280
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.9 | Bob_Dernier | CHN | CF | 281 |
| +020+ | 3.21 | Ryne_Sandberg | CHN | 2B | 333 |
| +043+ | 2.46 | Gary_Matthews | CHN | LF | 287 |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Keith_Moreland | CHN | RF | 187 |
| +016+ | 3.32 | Jody_Davis | CHN | CR | 267 |
| +066+ | 2.02 | Ron_Cey | CHN | 3B | 255 |
| XXXXX | -0.32 | Jay_Johnstone | CHN | LF | 33 |
| -042- | -1.99 | Larry_Bowa | CHN | SS | 218 |
| XXXXX | -0.23 | Steve_Trout | CHN | PR | 34 |
| TOTAL | 9.62 |
Ryne Sandberg keeps rising in the ranks. Top ten player Leon Durham is missing from this series and must be hurt. With him in the lineup Cubs should be close to a maxed out Tier 4 lineup.
LAN Lineup 198406280
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.94 | Steve_Sax | LAN | 2B | 279 |
| XXXXX | -0.34 | Bill_Russell | LAN | SS | 152 |
| XXXXX | -0.84 | Ken_Landreaux | LAN | RF | 232 |
| XXXXX | 0.59 | Pedro_Guerrero | LAN | 1B | 314 |
| +075+ | 1.83 | Mike_Marshall | LAN | LF | 239 |
| XXXXX | -0.25 | Steve_Yeager | LAN | CR | 125 |
| XXXXX | 0.08 | Candy_Maldonado | LAN | CF | 143 |
| XXXXX | -0.63 | Dave_Anderson | LAN | SS | 156 |
| XXXXX | -0.5 | Alejandro_Pena | LAN | PR | 37 |
| TOTAL | -1.00 |
Mike Marshall is the only player ranked in this lineup.
CHN START Roster 19840628
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +100+ | 1.55 | Steve_Trout | START | 83.0 | 0 |
| -006- | -2.98 | Rick_Reuschel | START | 65.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Rich_Bordi | START | 50.0 | 2 |
| -004- | -3.54 | Dennis_Eckersley | START | 105.0 | 2 |
| XXXXX | -0.63 | Chuck_Rainey | START | 82.0 | 3 |
| TOTAL | -4.72 |
Rick Sutcliffe pitches tomorrow. Frey seems to be carrying 6 starters. The script that makes these tables cuts off at 5 which will need to be fixed.
LAN START Roster 19840628
| Rank | WAA | Name | TeamID | Pos | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +023+ | 3.13 | Alejandro_Pena | START | 106.0 | 0 |
| +079+ | 1.76 | Fernando_Valenzuela | START | 127.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.08 | Bob_Welch | START | 97.0 | 2 |
| +077+ | 1.81 | Rick_Honeycutt | START | 112.0 | 3 |
| -089- | -1.30 | Burt_Hooton | START | 50.0 | 16 |
| TOTAL | 5.32 |
Valenzuela reaches rank #30 by the end of this season. Next year, 1985 is his career season. Former Cub Burt Hooton having a bad season but he recovers to even steven by the end of September.
That’s all for this weekend away series for the Cubs. Part 2 of our All Star picks featuring catchers and outfielders coming next. Until then ….