Cubs Dodgers Matchup 6/28/1984

Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Dodgers. Let’s look at this matchup. Below are the top half of the National League as of the start of today.

NL 19840627

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 43 29 25.0 -0.2 4.9
PHI 41 32 43.0 18.8 -22.1
NYN 38 31 -65.5 41.8 -2.1
CHN 40 33 55.5 -23.2 3.9
ATL 41 35 33.0 -14.2 -0.1
LAN 40 37 -31.0 19.8 -3.1

Cubs still struggling with pitching based upon PITCH, Dodgers (LAN) have problems with hitting based upon BAT in team status.

Tier Combos 

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 7 X 0.574 X 3.22 1.67 -1.27  
LAN 3 X 0.426 X -1.20 3.31 -1.83  

According to Tier Combo simulation Cubs have a 57% chance of winning based upon Lineups (L column), Starters (S column) and Relief (R column).  L, S, and R columns contain tier numbers where every plus or minus tier represents 1/2 standard deviation above or below current league average.

Cubs have a much better lineup than Dodgers as should be expected based upon their respective BAT numbers in team status above.  Dodgers have a better starter pitching today and both teams have bad relief.

Let’s look at today’s starters.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+100+ 1.55 83.7 Steve_Trout CHN 5 1.67
+023+ 3.13 106.0 Alejandro_Pena LAN 4 3.31

Steve Trout on the mound for Cubs and right now ranked exactly 100.  This is a career season for Alejandro Pena who is Dodger’s ace pitcher.  Let’s see what happens

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000104000 5 11 8 2
LAN 000300000 3 10 10 1

Cubs bats tag Pena with 4 runs which is enough to win this game.  Cubs underwater relief hold Dodger to no runs in 2 2/3 innings.  Let’s look at lineups which will be very similar for these two teams on Saturday and Sunday.

CHN Lineup 198406280

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 0.9 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 281
+020+ 3.21 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 333
+043+ 2.46 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 287
XXXXX 0.25 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 187
+016+ 3.32 Jody_Davis CHN CR 267
+066+ 2.02 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 255
XXXXX -0.32 Jay_Johnstone CHN LF 33
-042- -1.99 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 218
XXXXX -0.23 Steve_Trout CHN PR 34
TOTAL 9.62

Ryne Sandberg keeps rising in the ranks.  Top ten player Leon Durham is missing from this series and must be hurt.  With him in the lineup Cubs should be close to a maxed out Tier 4 lineup.

LAN Lineup 198406280

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -0.94 Steve_Sax LAN 2B 279
XXXXX -0.34 Bill_Russell LAN SS 152
XXXXX -0.84 Ken_Landreaux LAN RF 232
XXXXX 0.59 Pedro_Guerrero LAN 1B 314
+075+ 1.83 Mike_Marshall LAN LF 239
XXXXX -0.25 Steve_Yeager LAN CR 125
XXXXX 0.08 Candy_Maldonado LAN CF 143
XXXXX -0.63 Dave_Anderson LAN SS 156
XXXXX -0.5 Alejandro_Pena LAN PR 37
TOTAL -1.00

Mike Marshall is the only player ranked in this lineup.

CHN START Roster 19840628

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+100+ 1.55 Steve_Trout START 83.0 0
-006- -2.98 Rick_Reuschel START 65.0 1
XXXXX 0.88 Rich_Bordi START 50.0 2
-004- -3.54 Dennis_Eckersley START 105.0 2
XXXXX -0.63 Chuck_Rainey START 82.0 3
TOTAL -4.72

Rick Sutcliffe pitches tomorrow.  Frey seems to be carrying 6 starters.  The script that makes these tables cuts off at 5 which will need to be fixed.

LAN START Roster 19840628

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+023+ 3.13 Alejandro_Pena START 106.0 0
+079+ 1.76 Fernando_Valenzuela START 127.0 1
XXXXX -0.08 Bob_Welch START 97.0 2
+077+ 1.81 Rick_Honeycutt START 112.0 3
-089- -1.30 Burt_Hooton START 50.0 16
TOTAL 5.32

Valenzuela reaches rank #30 by the end of this season. Next year, 1985 is his career season. Former Cub Burt Hooton having a bad season but he recovers to even steven by the end of September.

That’s all for this weekend away series for the Cubs.  Part 2 of our All Star picks featuring catchers and outfielders coming next.  Until then ….