Cubs Padres Matchup 7/2/1984

Cubs start a 3 game series with the Padres today in San Diego. Let’s look at these two teams.

NL 19840701

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 45 31 19.4 2.7 5.6
CHN 43 34 61.9 -23.3 3.6
NYN 40 33 -71.1 46.7 -3.4
PHI 42 35 40.4 10.7 -26.4
ATL 43 37 29.9 -9.3 0.6
LAN 41 40 -32.1 12.7 -3.4

The above shows the top 6 teams of 12 in the National League as of beginning of today ( final results from yesterday ).  San Diego has a commanding lead in the NL West while Cubs are fighting it out with Mets, Phillies, and Braves in the NL East.

Cubs struggle with pitching but lead the league in BAT.  Padres have above average hitting and slightly above average pitching.  We’ll see this in more detail below.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 9 X 0.438 X 3.89 -3.20 -0.82  
SDN 14 X 0.562 X 0.43 1.99 -0.52  

The WAA column is real team Wins minus Losses.  It is the same type of value assigned to players.  Cubs starting an almost maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup again as we’ll see below.  Their starter ( S Column ) is almost maxed out in the other direction.  Tier combinations are explained here.

Tier Combo simulation gives San Diego a 56% probability of winning today based upon the above tier numbers.  

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-007- -2.98 65.7 Rick_Reuschel CHN 5 -3.20
+064+ 2.08 69.3 Dave_Dravecky SDN 5 1.99

Uh oh.  Rick Reuschel is pitching.  Ironically 1984 turns out to be Reuschel’s second worst year of his career with 1974, 10 years earlier, being his worst.  A simple click through to easily see all careers mentioned here is forthcoming.  

Dave dravecky is having a good season so far and at almost Tier 2.00 exactly he is one standard deviation above all MLB starting pitchers as of the rosters today.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 000001000 1 8 5 3
SDN 10000130 5 11 10 0

Reuschel gets tagged for 2 earned runs in 6 innings which isn’t bad.  Dravecky only allows 1 run in 6 and Padres win this one.  Cubs commit 3 errors which led to one unearned run.

CHN Lineup 198407020

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX 1.13 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 301
+012+ 3.46 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 352
+041+ 2.62 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 300
XXXXX 0.38 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 206
+014+ 3.36 Jody_Davis CHN CR 285
+054+ 2.27 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 273
XXXXX 0.08 Gary_Woods CHN RF 58
-062- -1.76 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 232
XXXXX -0.1 Rick_Reuschel CHN PR 29
TOTAL 11.44

This is a top of MLB lineup and close to Tier 4, or two standard deviations above league average.  Soon there will be a clickable option to drill down into all MLB lineups used to make this calculation.

Ryne Sandberg once again rising in the ranks and almost in the top ten with his teammate Leon Durham.  Jody Davis up there as well.  Leon Durham must be hurt.

SDN Lineup 198407020

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.05 Al_Wiggins SDN 2B 349
+101+ 1.53 Tony_Gwynn SDN RF 341
+111+ 1.45 Steve_Garvey SDN 1B 327
XXXXX 0.99 Graig_Nettles SDN 3B 260
XXXXX 0.8 Terry_Kennedy SDN CR 291
XXXXX 1.09 Kevin_McReynolds SDN CF 273
XXXXX 0.97 Carmelo_Martinez SDN LF 274
-031- -2.23 Garry_Templeton SDN SS 281
XXXXX -0.23 Dave_Dravecky SDN PR 15
TOTAL 3.32

This is a slightly above average lineup at this point in the season.

CHN START Roster 19840702

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
-007- -2.98 Rick_Reuschel START 65.0 0
-006- -3.09 Dennis_Eckersley START 113.0 1
XXXXX -1.05 Chuck_Rainey START 85.0 2
-020- -2.41 Rick_Sutcliffe START 115.0 3
+105+ 1.49 Steve_Trout START 90.0 4
TOTAL -8.04

Since we’re from the future we know this gets better — and that rise will propel Cubs past Padres for the best record in National League by the end of this year. 

This sudden rise in above pitchers will cause handicapping by this data model to under value Cubs’ starters.  It’s easy to look back and say it was obvious Sutcliffe would literally pitch like Cy Young from now until the end of the season but no one can predict the future.

SDN START Roster 19840702

Rank WAA Name TeamID Pos Rest
+064+ 2.08 Dave_Dravecky START 69.0 0
XXXXX 0.84 Eddie_Whitson START 88.0 1
XXXXX 0.21 Tim_Lollar START 98.0 2
XXXXX 0.08 Eric_Show START 109.0 3
XXXXX 0.08 Mark_Thurmond START 80.0 4
TOTAL 3.29

This is a slightly above average rotation — enough to win NL West this year.  Probably see some of these guys in the playoffs.

That’s all for now.  Our picks for All Star catchers and outfieldiers coming next.  Until then ….