Cubs Dodgers Matchup 7/12/1984

Cubs start their first series post All Star break at home against the Dodgers. They just played LAN about two weeks ago in Los Angeles. Let’s look at this matchup.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
CHN 48 36 56.4 -12.7 2.2
LAN 45 43 -39.5 20.3 0.2

The above are beginning of day numbers.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
LAN 2 X 0.332 X -1.54 3.34 -0.21  
CHN 12 X 0.668 X 4.00 1.49 0.67  

WAA is simply team wins minus team losses.  At +2 LAN is way behind Padres’ +15 in the NL West.  Cubs in a virtual tie with the Mets at +12.  There are no wild cards this year.

Cubs fielding a maxed Tier 4.00 lineup but Dodgers almost cancel that out with a Tier 3.34 starter.  Cubs have above water Relief.  Tier Combo simulation gives the Cubs almost exactly 2-1 or 2/3 favorites today.  Let’s dig down into these teams.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+017+ 3.55 127.3 Alejandro_Pena LAN 2 3.34
+100+ 1.64 95.0 Steve_Trout CHN 6 1.49

Trout is a halfway decent starter, Pena is top of MLB.  Starters face opposing team lineups.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
LAN 0001010000 2 16 10 1
CHN 2000000001 3 12 8 0

Cubs top of MLB lineup only manages 2 runs against Pena in 8 innings and 1 against their reliever.  That run in the 10th was a Sandberg home runs. Here’s a Tribune headline the next day.

Actually this game was more a pitchers duel but walk off home runs are always exciting.

Let’s look at lineups.

LAN Lineup 198407120

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
-111- -1.28 Steve_Sax LAN 2B 333
XXXXX -0.61 Bill_Russell LAN SS 186
XXXXX 0.9 Pedro_Guerrero LAN RF 362
+096+ 1.74 Mike_Marshall LAN LF 287
XXXXX 0.04 Candy_Maldonado LAN CF 162
XXXXX -0.13 Steve_Yeager LAN CR 146
XXXXX -0.34 Franklin_Stubbs LAN 1B 155
XXXXX -0.76 German_Rivera LAN 3B 57
XXXXX -0.63 Alejandro_Pena LAN PR 47
TOTAL -1.07

This is a below average lineup which concurs with their under water BAT in team status.

CHN Lineup 198407120

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX 0.92 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 334
+029+ 3.04 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 384
+055+ 2.35 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 331
+007+ 3.95 Leon_Durham CHN 1B 274
XXXXX 0.36 Keith_Moreland CHN RF 237
+024+ 3.13 Jody_Davis CHN CR 315
+050+ 2.48 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 297
XXXXX -0.04 Dave_Owen CHN SS 53
XXXXX -0.36 Steve_Trout CHN PR 39
TOTAL 15.83

This is a maxed out, top of MLB, Tier 4 lineup.

LAN START Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+017+ 3.55 Alejandro_Pena START 127.3 0
+076+ 1.99 Rick_Honeycutt START 118.7 1
+071+ 2.08 Fernando_Valenzuela START 142.3 3
XXXXX -0.27 Bob_Welch START 106.7 4
XXXXX 0.10 Orel_Hershiser START 71.3 5
TOTAL 7.45

Dodgers have three good starters who would take them far if they had a half way decent set of hitters in their lineup.

CHN START Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+100+ 1.64 Steve_Trout START 95.0 0
-101- -1.36 Rick_Sutcliffe START 131.0 1
-018- -2.67 Rick_Reuschel START 75.3 2
-009- -3.12 Dennis_Eckersley START 119.7 3
+120+ 1.47 Scott_Sanderson START 58.3 4
TOTAL -4.04

Sutcliffe rising from negative value accrued first half of the season.

LAN RELIEF Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+118+ 1.49 Tom_Niedenfuer RELIEF 40.3 0
XXXXX 0.10 Orel_Hershiser RELIEF 71.3 1
XXXXX -0.38 Ken_Howell RELIEF 13.0 1
XXXXX -0.25 Pat_Zachry RELIEF 47.0 1
XXXXX -0.94 Burt_Hooton RELIEF 56.3 6
XXXXX 0.08 Larry_White RELIEF 1.0 6
TOTAL 0.10

Niedenfuer, Dodgers top reliever, gave up the walk off HR to Sandberg in the 10th.  This is Orel Hershiser’s rookie year when they had him pitching relief and starts.  He has a tremendous second half finishing 1984 ranked #25 in MLB.  His career then takes off finishing #3 in 1985 and on and on.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840712

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
+098+ 1.66 Tim_Stoddard RELIEF 53.3 0
XXXXX -0.23 Lee_Smith RELIEF 53.3 1
XXXXX 0.04 Warren_Brusstar RELIEF 37.7 2
XXXXX -0.86 Chuck_Rainey RELIEF 88.3 2
XXXXX 1.05 Rich_Bordi RELIEF 53.7 4
TOTAL 1.66

Tim Stoddard is riding high now but will sink to even steven by season end. 

That’s all for the wrap up on this 4 game weekend series.  Day off Monday then Padres come into town on 7/16.  Until then ….