Cubs Padres Matchup 7/16/1984

Cubs start a three game series against Padres at Wrigley after taking 3 out of 4 from Dodgers over the weekend. Let’s look at these two teams.

Team Status

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
SDN 51 36 8.2 24.3 5.4 19840715
CHN 51 37 52.2 -12.7 3.4 19840715

Padres have pitching, Cubs have hitting, both teams about equal in the wins/loss columns at the top of NL.  Let’s dig down deeper into these teams based upon current rosters.

Tier Combos

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
SDN 15 X 0.462 X -0.57 -0.22 0.61  
CHN 14 X 0.538 X 2.96 -2.38 0.54  

Cubs fielding an almost Tier 3 lineup while Padres’ lineup is slightly underwater.  Both teams’ Relief above water and about equal.  Cubs have a much worse Starter pitching than Padres today.  Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs almost 54% advantage.  Straight home field advantage without knowing anything about either team is 54%. 

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
XXXXX 0.00 90.0 Mark_Thurmond SDN 5 -0.22
-043- -2.14 51.0 Dick_Ruthven CHN 57 -2.38

For some reason Cubs have to pitch Dick Ruthven who is back from 57 days rest.  He didn’t have a very good start to this season.   Mark Thurmond, at WAA=0.00 is exactly seasonal average for MLB players.  At Tier -0.22 he is however very slightly under water based upon the current set of MLB starters playing.  Thurmond finishes strong the rest of this season with a +3.17 WAA ranked #74.  Let’s see what happens today.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
SDN 021000001 4 11 8 0
CHN 000000000 0 5 4 0

Ruthven gives up 3 runs in 8 innings which is a pretty good outing but Cubs bats can’t score against Thurmond.

SDN Lineup 198407160

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX -0.8 Al_Wiggins SDN 2B 395
XXXXX 1.22 Tony_Gwynn SDN RF 389
XXXXX 0.78 Steve_Garvey SDN 1B 372
+136+ 1.32 Graig_Nettles SDN 3B 286
XXXXX 0.27 Terry_Kennedy SDN CR 326
XXXXX 0.57 Bobby_Brown SDN CF 84
XXXXX 1.01 Carmelo_Martinez SDN LF 317
-022- -2.65 Garry_Templeton SDN SS 316
XXXXX -0.46 Mark_Thurmond SDN PR 33
TOTAL 1.26

CHN Lineup 198407160

Rank WAA Name Tm Pos PA
XXXXX 0.59 Bob_Dernier CHN CF 351
+024+ 3.23 Ryne_Sandberg CHN 2B 401
+051+ 2.48 Gary_Matthews CHN LF 342
XXXXX 0.61 Keith_Moreland CHN 1B 252
+040+ 2.88 Jody_Davis CHN CR 329
+060+ 2.35 Ron_Cey CHN 3B 310
XXXXX 0.27 Gary_Woods CHN RF 72
-035- -2.25 Larry_Bowa CHN SS 258
XXXXX -0.19 Dick_Ruthven CHN PR 22
TOTAL 9.97

Leon Durham is missing again from this lineup.

SDN START Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX 0.00 Mark_Thurmond START 90.0 0
+014+ 3.59 Dave_Dravecky START 90.3 1
XXXXX 0.15 Tim_Lollar START 110.7 2
XXXXX 0.94 Eddie_Whitson START 103.0 3
XXXXX 0.59 Eric_Show START 120.3 4
TOTAL 5.27

We’ll see how this roster got better when playoff coverage starts at the end of this season.

CHN START Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
-043- -2.14 Dick_Ruthven START 51.0 0
-018- -2.73 Dennis_Eckersley START 126.4 1
XXXXX 0.94 Scott_Sanderson START 64.3 2
-058- -1.99 Rick_Sutcliffe START 136.0 3
+087+ 1.91 Steve_Trout START 103.0 4
TOTAL -4.01

We’ll see how this starting rotation gets better with each matchup post through the rest of this season.

SDN RELIEF Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX 1.18 Rich_Gossage RELIEF 60.7 0
XXXXX 0.59 Greg_Booker RELIEF 11.3 2
-072- -1.83 Andy_Hawkins RELIEF 83.7 2
+035+ 2.92 Craig_Lefferts RELIEF 59.0 3
XXXXX -0.92 Luis_DeLeon RELIEF 22.7 3
TOTAL 1.94

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840716

Rank WAA Name Pos IP Rest
XXXXX -0.35 George_Frazier RELIEF 64.6 0
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith RELIEF 57.3 1
XXXXX -0.10 Warren_Brusstar RELIEF 38.7 2
XXXXX 1.22 Rich_Bordi RELIEF 55.7 3
+091+ 1.83 Tim_Stoddard RELIEF 55.3 4
XXXXX -0.88 Chuck_Rainey RELIEF 88.3 6
TOTAL 1.82

Both these relief squads slightly above average.

That’s all for now.  Cubs start a 4 game weekend series with the Giants on Thursday 7/19.  The next matchup post will have tables organized differently showing Tier Combos better.  Until then ….