Cubs took 3 out of 4 from Giants in San Francisco two weeks ago and today they start another 4 game series at Wrigley. Let’s look at these two teams again.
Team Status
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 52 | 39 | 49.6 | -13.0 | 4.4 | 19840718 |
| SFN | 35 | 56 | 1.1 | -53.0 | -17.6 | 19840718 |
Cubs at the top of NL with Mets, Padres and Phillies all bunched together. Cubs hitting is superb, top of MLB while pitching is under water based upon seasonal run differential. Giants have average hitting, terrible pitching and unearned runs above average. Under water UR means opposing teams score a lot of unearned runs. The MLB commissioner counts unearned runs equally with earned runs when determining who wins a baseball game. That’s why this model keeps track of them.
Tier Combos
| WAA | Vegas | TC Sim | EV | L | S | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFN | -21 | X | 0.271 | X | 0.27 | -3.21 | -1.22 | |
| CHN | 13 | X | 0.729 | X | 4.00 | 0.65 | 1.05 |
Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a whopping 73% advantage today mostly due to the drastic differences between Cubs’ maxed out Tier 4.00 lineup facing a very under water Tier -3.21 SFN starter.
Cubs lineup against SFN Starter would compute to 4.00 – (-3.21) = +7 integer tier combo in Cubs favor. Tier combos max out at +6 and -6 as anything above or below is very rare. More on how the simulation sausage is made will unravel as this season progresses.
Tier combo for Giants lineup against Cubs starter is 0.27 – 0.65 which is a wash at zero. Cubs (R)elief staff now at Tier 1.05 while Giants are under water by around the same amount. The simulator takes these differences and uses historical data to come up with a winning percentage.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | IP | Name | Tm | Rest | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -012- | -3.15 | 105.3 | Mark_Davis | SFN | 5 | -3.21 |
| XXXXX | 0.94 | 64.3 | Scott_Sanderson | CHN | 5 | 0.65 |
Mark Davis #12 in the least valuable player list, a list no one wants to be number 1. Sanderson is unranked but above average both seasonally with raw WAA and the computed Tier number based upon the set of all starters on current MLB rosters. It would be interesting to see what the Vegas line would be for this game since bettors heavily rely on starter value and although Sanderson is good, he might not be a big enough draw to get bettors to risk 73% betting Cubs today. Just speculation however.
Let’s see what happens.
Line Scores
| TeamID | Linescore | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFN | 001200010 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 3 |
| CHN | 00300030 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 0 |
Cubs score 6 against Davis who pitches all 8 innings. Sanderson gives up 3 in 4 innings, gets pulled, and Cubs relief finishes off the other 5 innings.
SFN Lineup 198407190
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.99 | Dan_Gladden | CF | 83 |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Manny_Trillo | 3B | 177 |
| +119+ | 1.51 | Chili_Davis | RF | 320 |
| +061+ | 2.35 | Jeff_Leonard | LF | 358 |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Scot_Thompson | 1B | 95 |
| XXXXX | -0.15 | Steve_Nicosia | CR | 101 |
| XXXXX | -0.46 | Brad_Wellman | SS | 144 |
| XXXXX | -0.73 | Duane_Kuiper | 2B | 85 |
| XXXXX | -0.19 | Mark_Davis | PR | 37 |
| TOTAL | 3.59 |
CHN Lineup 198407190
| Rank | WAA | Name | Pos | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Bob_Dernier | CF | 363 |
| +028+ | 3.17 | Ryne_Sandberg | 2B | 413 |
| +067+ | 2.31 | Gary_Matthews | LF | 353 |
| XXXXX | 0.97 | Keith_Moreland | RF | 264 |
| +050+ | 2.67 | Jody_Davis | CR | 338 |
| +073+ | 2.21 | Ron_Cey | 3B | 321 |
| +010+ | 4.07 | Leon_Durham | 1B | 294 |
| -034- | -2.33 | Larry_Bowa | SS | 261 |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Scott_Sanderson | PR | 24 |
| TOTAL | 13.68 |
Leon Durham back and batting very low in the lineup. When Cubs lineups top Tier 4.00 this season it’s most likely due to whether or not Durham can play. Jody Davis must be in a slump since his ranking dropped to #50 from being in ranked 20 something earlier.
SFN START Roster 19840719
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -012- | -3.15 | Mark_Davis | 105.3 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 1.20 | Atlee_Hammaker | 28.0 | 1 |
| -011- | -3.23 | Mike_Krukow | 106.7 | 2 |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Bill_Laskey | 127.0 | 3 |
| -087- | -1.49 | Jeff_Robinson | 100.3 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -6.44 |
This is why Giants’ PITCH in team status is so under water.
CHN START Roster 19840719
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | 0.94 | Scott_Sanderson | 64.3 | 0 |
| -089- | -1.51 | Rick_Sutcliffe | 145.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | 1.13 | Steve_Trout | 108.7 | 2 |
| -053- | -2.06 | Dick_Ruthven | 59.0 | 3 |
| -018- | -2.77 | Dennis_Eckersley | 126.4 | 4 |
| TOTAL | -4.27 |
We’re still mid July so there’s plenty of time for these numbers to improve. Tiering is done on individual starters who pitch that day, not the group.
SFN RELIEF Roster 19840719
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -1.22 | Jeff_Cornell | 34.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | 0.32 | Greg_Minton | 75.3 | 1 |
| XXXXX | -0.69 | Bob_Lacey | 4.0 | 1 |
| XXXXX | 0.82 | Gary_Lavelle | 59.7 | 3 |
| XXXXX | -0.40 | Frank_Williams | 69.7 | 3 |
| TOTAL | -1.17 |
As expected, under water relief. Giants’ manager pitched Davis a complete 8 innings today because he had 3 relievers who pitched yesterday.
CHN RELIEF Roster 19840719
| Rank | WAA | Name | IP | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXXXX | -0.34 | George_Frazier | 67.6 | 0 |
| +093+ | 1.81 | Tim_Stoddard | 55.3 | 0 |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Rich_Bordi | 56.0 | 2 |
| XXXXX | -0.02 | Warren_Brusstar | 39.7 | 2 |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Lee_Smith | 57.3 | 4 |
| TOTAL | 2.79 |
Frasier pitched 3 innings and Stoddard finished the game pitching 2 today. Managers used relievers very differently than they will in the future.
That’s all for now. The first rough draft, prototype portal into this data model is almost ready. This will allow simple lookup for any team, any game, any player, etc. etc. from 1900 – 2020.
Also, it appears there may be some sort of MLB baseball season in the year 2020. More info on that too. Until then ….